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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Have to say the next 2 weeks are going to be a real challenge for forecasters, the models are in complete chaos at the moment.I think a relatively warm but wet may is probably my best punt as that is indicated on CFS v2 currently.

 

The QBO changeover coupled with the emerging el Nino and recent PDO shift is a recipe for model mayhem in all honesty and how these factors interact will shape the summer weather we experience. Anything could transpire over the next few weeks from monsoon like rains to heatwaves. I know where my money is but I'm saying zilch after the winter debacle. The weather makes fools of us all if we put ourselves out there!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Models at day 6

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GFS still building heights in strongly

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UKMO looking a lot better now

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GEM the furthest south but still better than yesterday

 

GFS ensemble

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So in all a good shift northwards of the high across the board so far, the second half of next week is starting to look pretty good. All eyes on the ECM. Retrogression still looks likely in week 2, but are the models overplaying this? Probably quite likely.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Morning folks so what have we in store today I wonder. Just to get one thing out of the way. I won’t be making any speculations on how the QBO, PDO and El Nino affect the models performance. For a start the PDO has only just gone positive, the El Nino probably will not come to fruition until later in the year and I haven’t a clue on how the QBO affects the Tropospheric dynamics, if it does, and I’m not sure that anyone else does either.

 

As noted the GFS has HP dominating the UK from Thursday through to Sunday. The high of around 1038mb is centred in the North Sea for the first three days but there is a major shift on Sunday and the centre has nipped across to the west of Ireland and by Monday is in the central Atlantic.

 

Regarding the 500hPa anomaly. Very similar to the last run with the ridge smack over the UK (no surprise there) with a trough mid Atlantic and another ridge near the eastern seaboard of the States. Awaiting to see the ECM take on this later as the hare is still running.

 

post-12275-0-77554700-1399616123_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM looks a lot better this morning

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Euros pretty much showing the same thing at this time frame with the GFS slightly more bullish with the heights and the GEM more unsettled in the north, but looking good for conditions to improve through next week.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

ECMWF & GFS are both showing some nice settled weather towards the end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty being 6/7 days out..

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^ I agree with the retrogression doubt. There is a cluster going with that scenario in the GEFS but it is only about 25%-33%. The spread at D10 sums it up:

 

post-14819-0-09243800-1399614730_thumb.p  Lots of uncertainty...again.

 

ECM shows us a much flatter pattern in week 2 this morning but with the jet towards N.Scotland not a bad run for the south with mostly settled conditions from D6-D9, before the pattern sinks south. However the last three runs have had different solutions and I suspect that there remains a lot of spread in the ECM ensembles as well.

 

GEM remains similar to the ECM but with the initial pressure rise not so far north so more unsettled earlier and again by D8 the jets slips south to cover the whole UK by D9.

As the London ens show a pressure rise is seemingly incoming but transient in nature and how it breaks down to yet be clarified:

 

post-14819-0-47538000-1399618865_thumb.g

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Regarding the 500hPa anomaly there is still some difference between the GFS and ECM giving a different interpretation of the surface analysis albeit both have high pressure dominating but with a different orientation. Also the ECM gives more credence to the colder air to the north having far more influence on the UK by the end of the run. This is by no means a done deal and much still depends on the orientation of the upper ridge/trough and subsequent orientation of the HP. although one has to say it looks promising.

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post-12275-0-88456300-1399621226_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

ECMWF & GFS are both showing some nice settled weather towards the end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty being 6/7 days out..

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Yep it's still looking very good just outside the reliable timeframe, hoping for a better met office update today. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 9TH MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A fresh to strong and showery westerly flow cover the UK South of Northern Scotland. Late today and tonight the flow will back SW as a warm front moves quickly NE into SW areas by tomorrow morning.

 

GFS GFS shows changeable weather continuing at the start of the coming week as Low pressure eases away NE at the expense of a strong rise of pressure from the South or SW. High pressure is then expected to build across the UK late next week giving a spell of fine and settled weather with some warm sunshine for many. Then later in the period pressure falls again as the High recedes away West with a cool and unsettled north or NW flow developing later with heavy showers returning.

 

UKMO UKMO is looking much better this morning as High pressure builds across Southern Britain midweek with resultant dry and fine weather developing for many Southern areas where it will feel much warmer by then. Further north a SW flow may spoil the improvement with moist winds delivering cloud, light rain and hill fog in places here.

 

GEM The GEM operational is much more restrictive in the extent of improvements from the South next week with Southern England and South wales alone looking like seeing any major improvements where it will become warmer, less wet and breezy but rather cloudy midweek before next weekend and beyond sees all areas return to changeable and sometimes wet weather as the Atlantic depressions push High pressure out of the South with ease.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is rather better with the developed ridge stretching NE across Southern Britain midweek maintaining a stronghold into next weekend with all of England and Wales becoming dry and warm with plenty of sunshine while only Scotland, especially the NW maintains moist SW winds and cloudy and damp weather.

 

ECM also shows an interlude of fine and bright weather especially across the South through the middle and end of next week before all areas come under more attack from Low pressure to the North as a result of High pressure to the West receding away West. Fine weather would then be replaced by cloudier and cooler weather with rain at times especially towards the North and East.

 

MY THOUGHTS  This morning's model output shows more uniformity between the models in relation to an improvement of the weather soon after the start of next week particularly in the South. Under High pressure there would be some warm sunny spells developing across the South while the North hangs on to more cloud and dampness in the far NW. There are strong trends though towards such an improvement being just a transitory phase ahead of more Low pressure intervention pushing down from the NW later in the period as High pressure migrates away and Westerly winds and occasional rainfall events return almost anywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This is more like it from UKMO it started its move to ECM yesterday afternoon and this morning its fully on board now with all of the UK becoming settled and pleasantly warm high teens to low 20's is more than good enough for me its only late May after all

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

ECM and UKMO now pretty much in agreement at t144

 

Posted Image

 

So after some uncertainty it looks like ECM was on the money after all

 

:)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Amazing changes again this morning and for the better aswell if you like sunny and very warm weather!!but how many times are the charts gona change?jesus!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS ensembles very much promoting a settled spell developing with a peak shown to be the 16th this morning before a breakdown occurs around the 19th though pressure doesn't fall below 1010mb with hints of another rise to around 1020mb later next week

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS ensembles very much promoting a settled spell developing with a peak shown to be the 16th this morning before a breakdown occurs around the 19th though pressure doesn't fall below 1010mb with hints of another rise to around 1020mb later next week

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Quite astonishing turnarounds from GFS/UKMO and some others in just 24 hours from full blown low pressure to full blown high pressure at T96/T120. 

 

However, the possibility of some really warm weather has dwindled, with few runs now stalling a low to the SW at T168/T192.

 

Even so, I think maximums from Wednesday to Saturday will be 18C-21C quite widely through England and Wales, and I expect 23C to be reached somewhere. 25C probably on hold for now, but may be achieved if low pressure cutting in from the NW is held-up or stays further north - have to say, very few LPs from the NW have made it that far south in a long time, so still an option.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes a few more days of unsettled weather to come before a noticeable improvement by mid week seems likely based on the latest runs.

Looking at the fax for Monday we can see the weekend's low, now approaching, will have cleared through and we are left with a showery westerly but we can see the next low waiting in the wings to come through on Tuesday.Last nights fax for Tuesday had this one moving in but the overnight runs now hold it back in the Atlantic to allow pressure to build towards the UK.

 

Monday post-2026-0-21142700-1399628213_thumb.gi

 

 

The Azores high then builds in nicely across the UK bringing us all some warmer and sunnier conditions which should last into the weekend.

Next Saturdays mean output of the ECM/GFS Op runs show  a solid UK High.

post-2026-0-49385900-1399628367_thumb.pn

 

so we should get at least a few days of decent weather from the middle of next week into the weekend.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I expect a better sounding update from the met office based on the latest model runs, yesterday's was disappointing compared to the previous day, today's should be more summery again...fingers crossed :-) 

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

GFS 6z once again looking good. The 0z brought cooler uppers down from the northeast next week whereas the 6z has things turning warmer sooner with high pressure centred over SW England next Thursday. It may not last all that long but some summery conditions are approaching.

 

Posted Image

 

An almost perfect position of high pressure for warmth and light winds.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Milhouse
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Its just a question of how long high pressure sticks around or if and when it starts to leak away. The high starts to be squeezed from low pressure to the north. Still a warm/very warm day on the cards.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 06z goes from high pressure to a northerly in 24 hours

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GEM on the other hand goes for very warm and humid conditions instead of a northerly

 

Posted Image

 

The met office continue to suggest a breakdown through the latter part of next weekend and into the following week with more unsettled and cooler conditions arriving similar to what GFS and ECM are showing

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GFS has the UK coming under the influence of the low pressure from the east on Saturday with Scotland in a NW and  very wet. Then by Sunday as SS has mentioned the whole of the UK is under the influence with a northerly and a quite grotty day for all.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

MY THOUGHTS  This morning's model output shows more uniformity between the models in relation to an improvement of the weather soon after the start of next week particularly in the South. Under High pressure there would be some warm sunny spells developing across the South while the North hangs on to more cloud and dampness in the far NW. There are strong trends though towards such an improvement being just a transitory phase ahead of more Low pressure intervention pushing down from the NW later in the period as High pressure migrates away and Westerly winds and occasional rainfall events return almost anywhere.

 

Strong trends, Gibby?  Somewhat overstated do you not think?  Admittedly both ECM and GFS uninspiring in FI but given the range we are looking at, is that not a little OTT at this point?

 

Some kind of improvement is looking virtually certain from c. Tuesday onwards but would it not be a brave man to call whether that fine® spell will be transitory or more sustained?

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Strong trends, Gibby?  Somewhat overstated do you not think?  Admittedly both ECM and GFS uninspiring in FI but given the range we are looking at, is that not a little OTT at this point?

 

Some kind of improvement is looking virtually certain from c. Tuesday onwards but would it not be a brave man to call whether that fine® spell will be transitory or more sustained?

 

It all depends how you interpret Gibby's post, but I agree with his words to be honest. The models have so far more repeatedly shown low pressure to gradually push the High pressure away after a few days, rather than have it sat in place for longer, be it FI or not.

 

That to me is a strong trend at this time. This may well shift in favour of longer last high pressure in a day or two...who knows. I certainly do not think Gibby is calling anything at this stage - he is just explaining the likey outcome if it was to go that way.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Strong trends, Gibby?  Somewhat overstated do you not think?  Admittedly both ECM and GFS uninspiring in FI but given the range we are looking at, is that not a little OTT at this point?

 

Some kind of improvement is looking virtually certain from c. Tuesday onwards but would it not be a brave man to call whether that fine® spell will be transitory or more sustained?

 

My thoughts are backed up by the Meto update today though. It would be wrong for me to say something other than what is shown when taking all models and ensembles as a percentage likelihood and that is why I was not surprised by the update from UKMO today. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It all depends how you interpret Gibby's post, but I agree with his words to be honest. The models have so far more repeatedly shown low pressure to gradually push the High pressure away after a few days, rather than have it sat in place for longer, be it FI or not.

 

That to me is a strong trend at this time. This may well shift in favour of longer last high pressure in a day or two...who knows. I certainly do not think Gibby is calling anything at this stage - he is just explaining the likey outcome if it was to go that way.

 

Certainly not pushing down from the NW as the GFS has it to the east. ergo the northerly wind on the Sunday. Personally I wouldn't have said there was a strong trend of anything lasting more than a couple of runs as the upper anomaly has produced little agreement to date.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Another bank holiday like scenario? GFS going for one of its classic Northerlies again! Come on GEM please be right !!

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