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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GEM and UKMO seem to be more for a north/south split in terms of conditions as opposed to the full on unsettled conditions of the morning suite. 

GFS on the other hand is going for full blown very warm spell

Posted Image

Posted Image

So after a nightmare winter, this is a big return to form by the ECM. 2 days of complete opposites T144+ GFS/UKMO vs ECM ... as I suspected this morning, it looks like ECM is going to clean up, with HP now into the south on all main charts by next Wednesday. Some very warm possibilities in the ens too...

 

...but will ECM now go the other way!! (I suspect not actually)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i found the ukmo of the past few runs quite strange wrt to the ecm and gem output. it seemed that, looking at the ecm ens, that the euro model had a decent grip on things. now we see general agreement on slp rising through next week but all the models that go into fi are now playing with retrogression. far too early to be too sure and in a funny way, knowing that the norm is for things to be pushed further east come verification, a bit of fi retrogression might not be such a bad thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Posted Image

Posted Image

Certainly a big change with the GFS today, suddenly the end of the week looks very good.

 

GEM and ECM ens from this morning hold heights a bit further south. Interestingly all models want to retrogress the high later on in week 2, though we need to get the high in first before debating that.

I think we need to slow down a little before we get to excited on a rather more settled spell! It was only last week that the models were portraying a fine settled warm spell for this week, and its almost laughable that its the complete opposite!! Not saying that the models are wrong this time, but reading between the lines it looks like "fleeting" ridges may be the likely outcome....But time will tell.. 8)  8)  8)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

So after a nightmare winter, this is a big return to form by the ECM. 2 days of complete opposites T144+ GFS/UKMO vs ECM ... as I suspected this morning, it looks like ECM is going to clean up, with HP now into the south on all main charts by next Wednesday. Some very warm possibilities in the ens too...

 

...but will ECM now go the other way!! (I suspect not actually)

 

 

A Eureka moment on the 12z from the GEFS: post-14819-0-36204700-1399573253_thumb.g

0z ens was contrary :cc_confused: :post-14819-0-99611600-1399573304_thumb.g

 

D10 mean looks good: post-14819-0-62495800-1399573432_thumb.p  ...4-6 days of HP close to the UK if the mean is a guide.

 

However I would like to see that this is not a rogue suite before I get the shorts out, as I expect the ECM to continue to downgrade the UK HP mid week, if its mean is a guide :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS ensemble shows the high moving in for mid week as per ECM from the past few days with things turning progressively warmer (though no heatwave just very pleasant)

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

By Friday its dominating

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

This continues through the weekend

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

By day 12 it starts to move away but it doesn't look like turning too unsettled with hints of the high rebuilding for the south at the end

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

ECM continues to look settled for most of England and wales mid next week though Scotland and Northern Ireland looks like it could remain unsettled with the low preventing the high from getting further north this continues on Thursday as well

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Changes to ECM with the positioning of the high which was to be expected but the general agreement from the models looks to be an improving picture for England and Wales around mid week

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

On the other hand the GFS has drastically altered it's stance on the 500 anomaly and now has a strong ridge over the UK with the Atlantic trough weakening. This translates to build up of HP from the east over the weekend. Haven't seen the ECM as yet but as I've mentioned before the position of the upper anomaly is crucial here.

post-12275-0-39434800-1399574866_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Day 6/7 ECM looks like a cloud fest to me. Long fetch, moist SW'ly with outbreaks of rain to more N areas. GFS looks the clearest and warmest this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

 

 

ECM continues to look settled for most of England and wales mid next week though Scotland and Northern Ireland looks like it could remain unsettled with the low preventing the high from getting further north this continues on Thursday as well

 

Posted Image

 

Changes to ECM with the positioning of the high which was to be expected but the general agreement from the models looks to be an improving picture for England and Wales around mid week

 

 

The jet is running through the UK on the above D6 and D7 so I am not too sure it will be that settled even for the south. Looks like a couple of cold fronts progged to sweep east on those two days, so I would expect unsettled for most.

 

post-14819-0-08373800-1399575072_thumb.g  post-14819-0-67813700-1399575079_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS ensemble looking the best this evening for warmth and settled weather fair to say the ECM Op is more unsettled especially from t192 quiet a change from the 00z ensemble which had the high over the UK up-to and including t216 will be interesting to see this evenings ensemble run later on

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

 

 

...but will ECM now go the other way!! (I suspect not actually)

 

Not for the faint hearted this model watching at the moment. :laugh: 

 

 

ecm yesterday..  ecm today..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

What a disappointing run from the ECM- you really couldn't write this! We were waiting for GFS to come into line and now the ECM has gone the other way.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

What a disappointing run from the ECM- you really couldn't write this! We were waiting for GFS to come into line and now the ECM has gone the other way.

Just look at the computer model last week....Its no surprise :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

What a disappointing run from the ECM- you really couldn't write this! We were waiting for GFS to come into line and now the ECM has gone the other way.

 

Either way, both ECM and GFS signal retrogression later in their output which brings the possibility of the UK being affected by troughing and potentially some rather cool weather going forward. This being said, a punt on any scenario looks dicey for the time being, whether it be settled or unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

"THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE AVERAGE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEAMPLIFIED FROM
THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM
THE GFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED
TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WERE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS
SHOW MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE OVERALL
FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY. 

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO MODERATE TO LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND THE EXPECTATION OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW PATTERN. "

 

This is the latest from NOAA and ties in with my thoughts that the GFS 12z suite maybe a rogue run. The experts suspect that week 2 will be flatter, not unlike the UKMO, GEM and ECM. That is why they are not including the GFS hi-res runs in their 500hPa chart. From their comments it looks like the ECM ens have similar scatter as the GEFS 0z. Though their confidence is below average, no surprise there.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Still no correlation between the GFS and ECM upper anomalies. This gives a completely different surface interpretation as one would expect. Until this settles down it's toss a coin time.

 

post-12275-0-29990200-1399577939_thumb.p

post-12275-0-72109500-1399577946_thumb.p

post-12275-0-45201200-1399577954_thumb.p

post-12275-0-48692900-1399577966_thumb.p

post-12275-0-29343600-1399577977_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Ecm and Gfs are really a laugh, feel dizzy anyone..... :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:

post-6830-0-52527800-1399577987_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-73689500-1399578103_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite frankly if we talking about June it may be better to give Gypsy Rose Lee a ring. The models can't sort out next week at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Either way, both ECM and GFS signal retrogression later in their output which brings the possibility of the UK being affected by troughing and potentially some rather cool weather going forward. This being said, a punt on any scenario looks dicey for the time being, whether it be settled or unsettled.

 

Yes true but I'd certainly rather take the GFS run at the moment, the 12Z signals retrogression but it's not until well into FI. The ECM is generally rather poor for most of the run, particularly in the latter stages when the UK is virtually the only part of Europe, including Scandinavia, with sub 0C 850 hpa temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Quite frankly if we talking about June it may be better to give Gypsy Rose Lee a ring. The models can't sort out next week at the moment.

Good Evening, Youre right !!! :cc_confused:  :rofl:  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM ensemble starts to build the high in during Tuesday from the south west

 

Posted Image

 

By mid week most of England and wales is under the high temperatures wouldn't be spectacularly high but given the strong sun now it would be very pleasant in any sun

 

Posted Image

 

By Thursday the high is shown to edge a bit further north allowing the bulk Scotland to settle down

 

Posted Image

 

By the Friday the high tracks further south again leaving the best of the weather for England and wales again it would continue to feel quite pleasant in any sunshine

 

Posted Image

 

Similar to this mornings ensemble a breakdown stays at days 9 and 10

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Astonishing change from if ECM ens mean where we go from mean slp of >1025 mb to < 1010mb in one run. Not often you see that and the speed of the retrogression and establishment of a north sea/Scandi tough has to be questioned until we see this repeating.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I have to say reading some posts today takes me back to the winter periods over the last few years. Models are models, nothing more, the trick is picking the correct one, NOT one that gives what any of us hope for.

The comment from NOAA is the most pertinent, for the states of course but it does have ramifications for us. IF the upper flow is flat then ridging is not the most favoured solution for this area. Currently, see this evening NOAA outputs for 6-10 and 8-14 days, show the 6-10 suggesting quite strongly upper ridging in the uUK area, but note this is the FIRST time it has shown this. By the 8-14 day chart and that ridge has gone, so I would treat any model/forecast suggesting any more than the odd day or two with ridging in charge with suspicion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It still looks like warming up and settling down beyond the middle of next week, at least for the south of the uk. In the meantime it will remain unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain, some heavy with thunder but sunny periods too, temperatures sliding to just below average for a time but then recovering to just above by later next week. Nothing has changed really, the reliable timeframe is not so good but beyond looks much better the further south you are.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Northern blocking galore GFS FI. Very 2007 esque in fact with the UK sat under mean, slackish troughing and areas of LP sat around the UK at any given time. Given the recent propensity for the NAO index to remain in any given state for extended periods of time, this could go on for a while if it does indeed establish. Interesting synoptics nonetheless.

 

Posted Image

 

Though personally I'm hoping for one decent plume event over the next few months, one which brings decent thunderstorms, rather than the current climatic 'in' thing.....the Kent clipper!

Edited by CreweCold
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