Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[johnholmes]

That summary is pretty much shown in the 6-10 day outlook on the anomaly charts, at least with the EC version. As Gibby comments GFS in the synoptic charts and also in its 500mb anomaly is more towards some kind of upper ridge into southern/SE'ern areas. This is also shown on the 6-10 NOAA version so just how unsettled and how far south this is the case is certainly not yet clear.

both versions below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited May 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

It looks a case of make the most of this weekends sunshine and eventually warmth from Tuesday onwards its looking unsettled for all parts with winds swinging around to a westerly flow bringing spells of rain for all some of which could be lengthy and possibly heavy at times though in any brighter periods in the south and south east it should feel quite pleasant given the strength of the sun now

 

[draztik]

Latest met office forecast looks relatively good for most in the midlands South. Further North, areas of Scotland, NI and Northern England could see rain on all three of the holiday days, average temps here while feeling mild/warm in S. Beyond this, it looks unsettled into mid term.

Msl anomaly ecm mean / mid week, weds 7th

[Frank Trough]

 

 

GFS 06z continues to be a bit more positive for later next week and treats the unsettled spell as a bit more of a "blip" than the ECM. It'll be interesting to see what happens. The met office don't really seem keen on anything overly settled for the foreseeable. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If you're a storm fan, GFS is modelling some very treating charts! It's popped up a fair few times now too, and it spotted this cooler period off a long way also. Interesting model watching coming as we head towards summer.

Edited May 2, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Summer Sun]

Nice!

 

Indeed just a shame its 384 hours away and unlikely to verify but none the less the first true sign of summer from GFS

 

 

Back to the reliable and unsettled best sums it up from Tuesday though Wednesday could offer something drier for a time from the west before more spells of rain push in for Thursday

 

[Winter Cold]

Nothing warm and settled on ECM tonight im afraid. Cool and wet all the way through as far as im reading it:

 

[Frank Trough]

GFS/GEM vs UKMO/ECM for next week. (GFS has the same evolution as the GEM but is a bit slower). Any chance of a clean victory for either side? or a middle solution?

 

 

Edited May 2, 2014 by New Forest Gump

[Frank Trough]

Nothing warm and settled on ECM tonight im afraid. Cool and wet all the way through as far as im reading it:

 

 

it's nailed on. it would help my CET guess.

[Polar Maritime]

it's nailed on. it would help my CET guess.

 

Nothing is "nailed on" as far as the Models are concerned. With some quite mixed and flamboyant signals as of late.

Edited May 2, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Frank Trough]

Nothing is "nailed on" as far as the Models are concerned. With some quite mixed and flamboyant signals as of late.

 

colder option must be nailed - winter cold's post has been rated +3?

 

nailed. mark my words.

[ANYWEATHER]

It was only a couple of days ago that the models firmed up on a  mainly fine and settled weekend nationwide, and whilst there is no wash out ,it does look rather cloudy and damp to the north and west after tomorrow, so rather disappointing , Perhaps someone told the weather it was a Bank Holiday    

Edited May 2, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Polar Maritime]

colder option must be nailed - winter cold's post has been rated +3?

 

nailed. mark my words.

 

Please try and stick to Model Discussion, Thanks.

 

There is always this thread for moaning or banter http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/

Edited May 2, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

The models agree somewhat on next weeks weather, being rather changeable to unsettled. but I don't think what we are seeing now on the output is anything like what we will be seeing next week, model projections are really at there lowest at the moment...    

[Summer Sun]

colder option must be nailed - winter cold's post has been rated +3?

 

nailed. mark my words.

 

Nothing is "nailed on" look how this "colder spell" watered down and next weeks settled spell also vanished with GFS the first to pick this up on either Tuesday or Wednesday t144 shows the different solutions on offer from all the models

 

 

All do show low pressure near by but what they can't agree on yet is where the high to our south will end up, GEM sends it to the UK whilst ECM takes it to northern France, whilst GFS and UKMO have it in a similar position over western France, Spain and Portugal until they firm up on where it will end up nothing is certain things can and do change very quickly in the world of weather

[draztik]

ecm ensembles rather unsettled tonight. The day 6-10 height anomalies keep lower heights to our NW, with any ridging reserved for the far south - tho even here looks unsettled post Tuesday into the mid term. Worst of conditions in the NW, with average/slightly below temps in a mean westerly flow. All in all, disappointing for the first week of May.

Days 6-10 temp anom.

Edited May 2, 2014 by draztik

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run looks pretty unsettled by the end of the BH weekend, at least for the north & west but the southeast looks fine and warm with the residue of high pressure lingering with temperatures around 19 celsius but rather cooler for the cloudy and rainy areas to the northwest. By tuesday it looks unsettled for all areas as an atlantic trough pushes eastwards and really that is the story for the rest of next week, some ebb and flow of the PFJ as it ripples north and south, the south of england could have occasional ridging from the higher pressure across mainland europe bringing some decent fine and warm spells between the frontal systems but it has to be said, the north and west looks distinctly unsettled next week, indeed, the far north / northwest will have some rain later tomorrow and throughout sunday and monday,

[damianslaw]

Has to be said model performance in recent days has been preety poor. Most models were suggesting a few days ago a northerly blast lasting at least 2-3 days, alas we haven't seen one verify, then just 2 says ago many were suggesting a mostly fine dry bank holiday period with high pressure keeping the atlantic at bay, alas only the far SE looks like holding onto mostly dry fine conditions, with barely any sunshine now forecast for the NW quarter of the country..

 

With this in mind, don't get hung up on what the models are showing for 5-6 days time, there appears to be a large room for error at present.

 

However, if what they are showing verifies, the start of May looks a very poor one for the west and north, under cloud and rain, very uninspiring. By Tuesday the south will see cloudier wetter conditions as well.

 

May can be a glorious month weatherwise in the NW, quite often better than July and August for dry settled weather, it is also a very fickle month, one which keeps you guessing as the northern hemisphere is in a period of change from its winter to summer state.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Has to be said, at least we are having a decent spring this year. The models are showing normal may weather, neither too warm or too cool and neither too wet or too dry. :-)

[knocker]

A quick look at the upper air set up for next week, the NH temp anomaly for Friday and, given all this, what delights can one expect from the GFS this morning.

 

No prizes for guessing the operative word is unsettled

 

Wednesday a low centred over the NE giving a wet day and fresh westerly winds in the south.  Thursday a shallow low SW of  Iceland and the AZ high giving a westerly fetch over the UK.  By Thursday the low has deepened with a transient ridge effecting the south west of the UK with the wind veering NW.  By Saturday the low south of Iceland is dominating affairs bringing troughs across the UK and just generally wet.

 

Given the recent record I’ve no doubt this scenario is merely opening the negotiations but given the upper air I think that unsettled is a reasonable bet.

Edited May 3, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

The GEFS are beginning to show some sort of consistency for FI. It looks like after the BH weekend we have at least 7 days of unsettled lower pressure dominated weather from the Atlantic. The mean at D10:

 

 

It looks more likely that it will be UK wide, as now only a couple of members have the south in higher pressure. The further N/NW, the more rainfall over the next eight days:

 

 NW Scotland likely to get monthly May average in those 8 days according to GFS.

 

The mean at T300 shows pressure rises to the SE as the flow becomes more meridional and the trend is still for heights to our NE, so the SE/south maybe more settled:

 

Mean: Op: 

 

GEM at T240: 

 

Again the charts after this weekend suggests a westerly flow with some transient respite still showing for the far south but mainly unsettled for all.

 

D6 UKMO also looks to be going that way: 

 

Last night's ECM Mean at D10 also highlighting the upcoming pattern: 

 

No change this morning's run, D10: 

 

Average temps likely but feeling cooler and remaining unsettled as per previous posts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY 3RD MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure over the UK will slip slowly South today allowing a warm front to cross East across the North of Britain tonight and tomorrow with a SW breeze freshening over the North.

 

GFS GFS today shows a generally very unsettled period coming up once we exit the Bank Holiday weekend. The operational model and it's ensembles show continued Low pressure never far from UK shores bringing rain or showers across the UK on most days with some heavy rain in places, fresh winds and temperatures showing little signs of being anything spectacular for most areas over the next few weeks.

 

UKMO UKMO shows a feed of Westerly winds between Low pressure close to the North and High pressure well away over the Azores. This classic UK weather set up means all areas will become subjected to rain and showers at times in breezy Westerly winds and temperatures close to average at best.

 

GEM The GEM operational also shows unsettled conditions coming up with Low pressure areas queuing up in the Atlantic later next week to maintain a very unsettled spell with rain and showers at times in fresh Atlantic breeze.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is virtually a mirror image of it's counterpart models with Low pressure well in control to the North of the UK with wind and rain coming across all areas in frequent succession from the early part of next week.

 

ECM too shows the Atlantic in complete domination from Tuesday with various centres crossing East close to northern Scotland with attendant rain and showers spilling East across all areas at times. This pattern looks maintained through next weekend and beyond too in temperatures close to average.

 

MY THOUGHTS  I cannot bring much good cheer for those looking for an early taste of summer this morning. Instead all models without exception show a very unsettled period next week and probably beyond too with rain and showers likely for all with just brief brighter periods. The previous days optimism towards improvements in Week 2 of the model runs seems to have evaporated somewhat with the favoured option now trending towards a continuation of rain at times for most areas on blustery Westerly winds.

[bluearmy]

We could still eek out an Atlantic lw trough and sceuro ridge for week 2 so all not quite lost approaching mid month. However, the trend is for the trough to be further east and flatter, thus covering much of the uk and forcing any sceuro ridge to be less sc and more EU.

As we have seen over recent weeks, the 7/14 day outlook is never certain but perhaps we are due a worsening outcome having dodged a bullet a couple of times already this spring

[knocker]

I must admit I'm not holding my breath looking at this although anything over three to five days is a lottery at the moment.

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run looks pretty unsettled to me, especially further north but we all have unsettled weather, occasionally drier, brighter and warmer across the south / se due to weak ridging but for the north & west it looks a very unsettled picture, even by T+240 it looks like the unsettled spell would continue and if that trough manages to drag itself to the northeast of the uk, much cooler air would flood south.