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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GEM out, and things are going downhill (depending on your pref.) Canadian forecasting unsettled conditions into early next week and beyond, with cooler conditions nationwide.

 

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t144/168/192 GEM 12z

Words to sum up the GEM.

Dreadful

2012

Please don't verify  :rofl:

UKMO showing a slower breakdown the the GFS

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No other model has suggested the retrogression of heights from Scandinavia over to Greenland so hopefully it's just a rogue run.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Words to sum up the GEM.

Dreadful

2012

Please don't verify  :rofl:

UKMO showing a slower breakdown the the GFS

Posted Image

 

No other model has suggested the retrogression of heights from Scandinavia over to Greenland so hopefully it's just a rogue run.

 

The KMA's (Korean Met.) mean for May, shows heights building over Greenland/Arctic... with lower heights in and around the UK. This has little support, but interesting.

 

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Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The KMA's (Korean Met.) mean for May, shows heights building over Greenland/Arctic... with lower heights in and around the UK. This has little support, but interesting.

 

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I guess we add the ECM to the mix now

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

-7 850s clipping the N/E coast Friday, Would of been the headline of last Winter.. :D

 

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Yes interesting ECMWF is showing some cooler unsettled weather, But with the Models being so volatile over the past few days, we need much more support.

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Every time we see some very cold and wet weather forecast recently, it is nearly always downgraded by the time it arrives, the trend is for continued dry weather with occasional wet interruptions .

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Im really not sure models have got anything nailed as to next week. Expect a lot of changes between now and then. Model output as been abysmal in the last few days. Lookiing foreward to the next few days as to where we are on more settled weather next week.....?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looks like it will become more unsettled early next week but hints on the GFS ensemble of pressure rising from the south from day 9

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think the models are telling us to enjoy the fine and increasingly pleasantly warm BH weekend but then to prepare for a change to unsettled weather from the west but for the east and especially the southeast, although some rain can be expected next week, the best of the dry, sunny and locally warm weather is also likely but the further north and west you go, the more generally unsettled it looks with temperatures closer to average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS 00ozrun shows a one day cool snap then warming up nicely once more over the weekend so it shouldn't be a bad one at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As Pit has observed the weekend looks fine. Have attached the JOMEC fax charts.

 

Make the most of it.

 

The 00z GFS for Weds through Saturday. Can neatly be summed up by grotty becoming grottier. Await the optimism of the ECM with bated breath.

 

On Friday the ens upper air has the AZ high dominating with cold air over Greenland giving a strong WSW flow over the UK

 

Wednesday

Azores high to the SW and a low south of Iceland bringing fresh NW and wet in Ireland and the south west.

 

Thursday

Similar set up but the low now north of Scotland with strengthening winds from the west and generally wet over most of the UK with troughs popping through.

 

Friday

Again a similar set up with a complex area of low pressure to the north and yet another wet day for most.

 

Saturday

What can I say. Strong westerly winds squashed between the pressure systems with a separate low in the North Sea with rain, heavy in places, for virtually all of the UK.

 

Given this scenario the temps are a little irrelevant but suffice it to say fairly depressed, who wouldn’t be, except in the south.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Away from NW Scotland BH Monday should remain dry for most with temperatures in the mid to high teens for England and Wales before the rain slowly moves across the UK during Tuesday reaching the later in the day

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z op run shows a fine BH weekend for many of us with temperatures slowly climbing and monday being the warmest day nationwide with temps into the mid to upper 60's F, the northwest of the uk gradually becomes more unsettled by sunday with fronts brushing across the far northwest and then by tuesday the atlantic breaks through across all areas as a trough moves in from the west but the south should escape the worst of it, n.ireland & scotland looks likely to bear the brunt of the unsettled spell, then later next week the azores anticyclone surges northeastwards to the south of the uk with a plume of warmth for the southeast in particular bringing temperatures nudging into the low 20's celsius but remaining cooler and more unsettled across the northwest. Later in the run a large anticyclone builds to the west of the uk, hopefully the position of that high will adjust further east on subsequent runs and enable warmer and sunnier by mid month. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY 1ST MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A shallow Low pressure area is expected to cross ESE over Southern Britain over the next 12 hours. A trough over Northern areas will then slip South over the UK with rising pressure extending down from the North tomorrow.

 

GFS GFS continues to show a fine weekend under High pressure slipping South over the UK. Through next week the Atlantic influence develops again across most areas as Low pressure crosses East to the North of Scotland. This means occasional rain will develop towards the middle of next week for most areas before the trend towards the later end of the period shows a more restricted Westerly flow, principally affecting the North while many Southern areas may well see longer drier and warmer spells in association with High pressure close to the South.

 

UKMO Not available this morning.

 

GEM The GEM operational shows more unsettled conditions developing next week as Atlantic Low pressure close to NW Britain steers troughs East across the UK pushing the Bank Holiday Weekend High pressure away to the South. All areas can expect some rain, heaviest in the North and west and accompanied by very average May temperatures.

 

NAVGEM is also largely similar contracting High pressure away from the South early next week in preference of Atlantic Low pressure moving East close to northern Scotland with some rain at times expected for all later next week.

 

ECM shows Low pressure crossing East over the UK midweek with rain and showers for all with further changeable conditions affecting most areas as well late next week and into the weekend. It maybe though that Southern areas become largely dry if rather cloudy through next weekend as High pressure builds somewhat from the South.

 

MY THOUGHTS  A decent weekend looks likely with all models supporting High pressure sliding down across the UK with fine and dry weather by day with plenty of sunshine but cold and clear nights. Thereafter the trend remains for more unsettled weather to return towards midweek with some rain at times for all though the longer term outlooks from the models remains a slow trend towards Southern areas becoming drier and brighter with temperatures rising somewhat as High pressure builds from the South with by then most rain bearing fronts from off the Atlantic restricted more towards Northern Britain.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

High pressure to the east and south. Can only be a good sign for our first possible taste of Summer. Must stress that im not saying that summer arrives within the next 10 days, but high pressure looks in just the right place to bring warmer and drier conditions up from the south as May progresses.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Milhouse
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the ECM ens the 500mb anomaly is very similar to the GFS. The surface analysis is also not dissimilar if perhaps less grotty by the end of the week with the Azores high pushing a tad further north. It will be interesting to see which way they will jump by the weekend. Looking at the upper air I'm tending towards the pessimistic. But then what do I know.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The latest runs tying in with recent output, settled BH weekend for most followed by about three days of a more unsettled spell then the AH edging NE. No inter 0r cross model clarity on this yet though the south should become warmer and more settled from around the 8th May.

 

The Means, GFS at D10: post-14819-0-86680800-1398945235_thumb.p  ECMpost-14819-0-03850700-1398945246_thumb.g GEM: post-14819-0-98434800-1398945398_thumb.p

 

GFS more optimistic for the UK as a whole with the jet straddling the northern tip of Scotland where as ECM has it running through the north. Conversely GEM is the most pessimistic with most of the UK in the grip of a westerly flow of showers.

 

The GEFS remain noncommittal, though the main cluster is for some sort of HP over the UK, closely followed by a north south divide, then a cluster more like GEM. More runs required.

 

Way out in FI (D16) the GEFS are returning to a more meridional profile, with heights towards Scandi as the main HLB:  post-14819-0-77605600-1398945814_thumb.p

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a fairly settled BH weekend it looks like turning more unsettled during next week with rain moving in from the west during Tuesday but possibly not reaching the south east till much later in the day, then by Wednesday its more unsettled for all but still feeling warm in any sunnier periods 

 

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Longer term is still up for grabs as ever at this range GFS 12z shows pressure slowly rising from day 8 for a time

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some cold Frosty nights coming up over this weekend.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

ECM shows how lucky we're going to be with pressure just remaining high enough for most of us to give a nice extra day off :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After some chilly and frosty nights temperatures should recover nicely by day and feeling quite pleasant in any sunshine given its strength now though tomorrow could be the coolest day of the BH weekend with a chilly NE'ly breeze

 

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By Sunday temperatures recover nicely for most though some northern and western parts could be cooler if cloud fails to lift as the temperatures show

 

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BH Monday looks warmer for all of England and Wales western Scotland and all of Ireland look like the coolest spots where cloud and rain could affect this part of the UK and Ireland

 

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By Tuesday the highest temperatures are likely to be in the south east rain will move across the UK but how quickly it gets to the SE remains uncertain for now but it probably won't arrive till later in the day

 

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Another decent BH weekend looks to be on the cards for most though western Scotland and all of Ireland could be more prone to rain on BH Monday as such temperatures here will be lower

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

 

 

 

 

Longer term is still up for grabs as ever at this range GFS 12z shows pressure slowly rising from day 8 for a time

 

 

 

 

Completely understand why people are holding back on predicting far beyond Bank Holiday Monday. Current models are as far from ever from being nailed on beyond the short term ..

 

Delighted that we can be confident of a pleasant BH weekend though ...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Models show the southeast is the place to be for the best of the sunshine and warmest weather next week with only brief unsettled blips, the far southeast may even stay dry but the further northwest you are, the more unsettled it will become beyond the BH weekend as atlantic systems push eastwards. In the meantime, the weather will become set fair for 2-3 days apart from the far northwest on sunday when weak fronts brush around the top of the declining anticyclone. It will slowly become warmer, monday looks the warmest day before the rain clouds move in.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just a snapshot looking at the GFS mean temp anomaly. Quite sriking the build up heat to the east and NE and yes I know it's in Alice land. Worth a quick glance at the 500mb pattern.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 2ND MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A High pressure centre will slip South down across the UK from the North through today. A warm front will approach NW areas from the Atlantic through tomorrow.

 

GFS GFS shows fine weather across the UK today and tomorrow in association with High pressure moving South over the UK. Through the second half of the weekend and for a time next week Atlantic fronts will affect the North at first and all areas by Tuesday. The model's ensembles then shows changeable conditions for a time for all before the trend towards High pressure building to a greater or lesser degree remains evident this morning for week 2.

 

UKMO UKMO looks very unsettled this morning with a fresh Westerly flow next week between Low pressure to the North and High pressure near the Azores. All areas would be subjected to spells of rain at times in Westerly winds and average temperatures.

 

GEM The GEM operational this morning also shows the likelihood of a period of blustery Westerly winds and occasional rain through next week and weekend as Low pressure remains to the North and High pressure recedes further to the South.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows unsettled conditions spreading to all areas soon after the Bank Holiday with Low pressure crossing the UK from the West and followed by further unstable Westerly winds later with further outbreaks of rain in average temperatures.

 

ECM looks very disturbed this morning as the Atlantic ratchets itself up on Tuesday feeding Low pressure, Westerly winds and frontal troughs spilling across from the west regularly from Tuesday onward right out to the end of the run.

 

MY THOUGHTS  After the fine and dry weather of Bank Holiday Monday next week looks increasingly likely to turn unsettled and breezy with rain at times as Low pressure is now focused on affecting all areas of the UK next week. With all models now singing from the same hymn sheet there seems little room for deviation from this general message with GFS the only voice in the dark indicating a trend towards drier and warmer conditions developing under higher pressure through Week 2 though it too shows disturbed conditions in the period before. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some warmth in any brighter patches between the rain in the SE.

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