Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

few last things from me. first the ecm ens are similar to the gfs in develop heights to the north east and low heights just west of the uk. this give the possibility of mixed and average conditions or maybe warmer and drier conditions if the high has more influence. the charts draztik posted show this rather nicely.

lastly the metoffice mention warm conditions in the eadt of the uk with cooler conditions further west. supports the ensembles quite well that does.

[legritter]

I may be totally wrong ,the modells later next week may be totally wrong ,so may my sea weed ,but i have a feeling in my water that the weather will become more volotile looking at current charts .Dont forget folks we all post on the best weather forum in the world ,long ,may it last ,cheers 

[Polar Maritime]

lastly the metoffice mention warm conditions in the eadt of the uk with cooler conditions further west. supports the ensembles quite well that does.

 

The METO state this " possibly warmer further Southeast." 

 

But will still feel colder than of late.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z continues to show pressure building nicely from Monday allowing temperatures to respond though those close to the coast could see temperatures struggling at times but get inland and it should feel quite nice in any sunny periods

 

 

By Thursday temperatures continue to rise hitting the high teens for some in the south can't rule out the low 20's for one or two spots

 

 

Good Friday could live up to its name with no rain (away from NW Scotland) and temperatures in the high teens for many in England and wales possibly the low 20's for some

 

 

Into Easter Saturday and despite low pressure moving up from the south it remains dry and warm for most of England and wales with temperatures in the high teens for many in England and wales possibly the low 20's for some

 

 

So up-to Easter Saturday things look very decent for many with temperatures slowly rising as the week progresses although Easter Sunday and Monday looks more unsettled it stays warm for many

 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[CongletonHeat]

Yes good 6z run for the next 7 days, nothing cold  and mainly dry.

[Polar Maritime]

Just to note..

 

The 6z over the past 4/5 days has been consistently at odds with the rest of the models runs, so not to be taken in isolation as with any run. 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

There are some good posts in here this morning but it is tending towards the winter situation with 1 or 2 folk arguing that their interpretation is better than another. Why not just post the charts, give your views and let the rest of us make our own minds up, asking a question if we feel it necessary.

 

It does look fairly finely balanced to me not so much from the variability of the synoptic models over the last 3-4 days in the Easter period but looking at the 500mb anomaly charts. They have not been totally consistent with one another, nor with themselves at times. Perhaps the NOAA issues at 6-10 and 8-14 have the most consistency over the ECMWF-GFS outputs?

It is perhaps that the upper trough is probably going to be over, even a touch east of the UK as we start Easter with some indication that it MIGHT move west by the start of the following week. I am unsure which to suggest right now. The uncertainty is a measure of the overall major upper pattern being not clear as to how it might settle down over the 6-15 day time scale. It could be on the cold side, especially the more north you are at the start of the holiday period, becoming rather more settled and somewhat warmer/milder as the weekend progresses. But unclear enough for no one to be able to state categorically just what the Easter break will give us all.

below are the last issues from NOAA and ECMWF-GFS; they illustrate quite nicely the uncertainty on just where the upper trough will be, and on this depends the weather=settled or not, how warm/cold.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited April 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[Peejayem]

Just to note..

 

The 6z over the past 4/5 days has been consistently at odds with the rest of the models runs, so not to be taken in isolation as with any run. 

To my (admittedly unexpert) eyes, It wasn't especially at odds with the previous two GFS runs

[knocker]

Thanks for that John. Just to clarify if the upper trough is lying to the west of UK as the ECM ens five day is indicating would that lean to a more unsettled picture in the UK over the weekend although not particularly cool?

Edited April 12, 2014 by knocker

[johnholmes]

If the trough is west of or east of it would tend to be unsettled dependent on where any upper ridge settles, the closer that settles (if it does) then the more setlled the weather would be. Trough East of UK=cool to rather cold, West of UK=milder.

[Milhouse]

And its the mild but unsettled situation that is most likely at the moment for the BH weekend. Higher pressure over the continent not allowing low pressure to push eastwards so a fairly mild southerly flow in general.

 

 

[knocker]

If the trough is west of or east of it would tend to be unsettled dependent on where any upper ridge settles, the closer that settles (if it does) then the more setlled the weather would be. Trough East of UK=cool to rather cold, West of UK=milder.

 

Thanks for that, more or less what I thought. Adding to that the GFS at 06z has low 996mb over Cornwall Sunday morning with mid Atlantic trough.

Edited April 12, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

GFS keeping good Friday dry, settled and warm away from some of the coasts

 

 

Similar picture for Easter Saturday though we could see more in the way of sunshine with the easterly flow the best temperatures would be further west

 

 

UKMO still looking fairly settled to Good Friday

 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Thanks for that, more or less what I thought. Adding to that the GFS at 06z has low 996mb over Cornwall Sunday morning with mid Atlantic trough.

 

The 12z is much the same as the same as above for Sunday morning with the low over northern France.

[Summer Sun]

If the latest rain data is correct most of England and Wales should see very little if any rain up-to and including Easter Sunday, slightly wetter during week 2 for England and Wales but nothing too significant

 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

remains interesting to say the least. the ecm ens continue to provide decent mid/longer range guidance again against the ops as we see another potential cold plunge shifted to our east. the difference this time is that the upper trough looks like it will spread out across western europe which should provide a cooler period. however, there seems to be a battle upcoming between the building scrussian block and atlantic trough. that could provide a broadly southerly drift which would counter those lower uppers somewhat. i have had my eyes on building heights to our ne for a while now and we may see the trend heading that way with the trough becoming less pronounced, run by run.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run shows a very nice week ahead with high pressure taking complete control, lots of fine and sunny weather nationwide with pleasantly warm temperatures for the time of year by day, but with slight frosts during the first half of the week.. it then becomes warmer and warmer by day towards the end of the week as the high drifts further southeast and enables a continental flow into the uk and the risk of frost diminishes but even the first half of the week is pleasant enough with temps close to 60 F, nearer 70 F for parts of the south by friday. The high sends for reinforcements from the southwest and then eventually from the northeast, a large russian high lends a helping hand. There is an unsettled blip as the high is squeezed away to the northeast with pressure leaking away across the uk but there would still be plenty of warm and sunny weather between a scattering of heavy showers. High pressure dominates this run, it comes back with a vengeance later in the run and following months of low after low, over 35 depressions in succession during that awful joke of a winter, we now have high pressure firmly in the ascendancy with a good looking spring.

Edited April 13, 2014 by Frosty.

[knocker]

For the Easter weekend the GFS is going for mid Atlantic upper trough with a tentacle stretching over the UK. On the surface a slack pressure area becoming low pressure by Monday resulting in fairly moderate temps on Sunday and Monday, apart from along the south and east little weather and variable cloud.

 

ECM is similar with the exception it has an upper ridge over the UK on Thursday that retreats NE. Bur similar slack low pressure over the UK. Perhaps the party line is hardening along similar lines. I’m not holding my breath yet.

Edited April 13, 2014 by knocker

[johnholmes]

I think the overall upper air pattern for the end of this week and into the end of Easter is fairly well set up.

A 500mb flow north of west to start with the upper trough just east of the country. Over the Easter period this will relocate to west of the UK as heights tend to build to the E/NE of the UK. Thus a flow from south of west indeed perhaps south. Still rather unsettled for most of the period but a tendency IF the upper ridge does build for it to bsettle more as the weekend progresses. On the cool side turning less so. A question mark perhaps for eastern coastal districts if the surface flow turns to an easterly quadrant later on?

Not a white Easter other than some of the mountains I would think.

Edited April 13, 2014 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

Latest rain data extends the spell with no or very little rain to Easter Monday now for England and Wales a lot wetter in week 2 for England and Wales but we've gained an extra day this morning

 

 

UKMO keeps high pressure in charge for Good Friday and Easter Saturday

 

[draztik]

Ext ecm ens now projecting above average conditions over Easter & beyond.

days 5-10 & 10-15 temp anom

a far cry from where it was just a couple of days ago.

[Summer Sun]

Ext ecm ens now projecting above average conditions over Easter & beyond.

days 5-10 & 10-15 temp anom

a far cry from where it was just a couple of days ago.

 

Hows it looking pressure wise?

[knocker]

On the other hand.

Edited April 13, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

With the exception of Good Friday the Easter weekend doesn't look too bad on the ECM ensemble for many lets face it, it could be a lot worse

 

 

If we can't get a perfectly settled weekend I'd take sunshine and showers over a stormy weekend with gales and rain

Edited April 13, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Such mixed signals from the models over the last week, must be a nightmare for forecasters.. 

 

At least this coming week looks settled and pleasant, The turning point continues to be around or just after the Easter Weekend from the N/W, looking at both the GFS & ECM this morning. 

 

Edited April 13, 2014 by Polar Maritime