Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Well for those in the south ECM don't look too bad this morning for the Easter weekend further north it looks wetter and windier for the first half of the Easter weekend with a deep low centred to the north of Scotland before it starts to ease by the Sunday

 

 

GEM is showing a very unsettled start to the Easter weekend but with an improving picture by Easter Sunday after the northerly on Saturday though its short lived and doesn't drag down the coldest air

 

 

Then after all the above we have GFS which would give us a lovely Easter weekend with high pressure in change and temperatures rising as the weekend progress getting to the mid to high teens by Easter Sunday and Easter Monday

 

Edited April 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

ECM Control 0z

days 4-9; 7-12; 10-15 temp anom

GEFS Mean 0z

days 4-9; 7-12; 10-15 surface temp anom

[knocker]

Might as well add the 500 hPa anomaly. The ECM is certainly plumping for cyclonic edging the battle at this stage.

Edited April 10, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

2nd successive run from GFS which goes for high pressure to build just in time for the Easter weekend the only exception is northern Scotland by the Monday temperatures steadily rise as the weekend progresses with temperatures pushing 20c in the south by Easter Sunday & Monday

 

Edited April 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Yes SS, a rather encouraging GFS 6z bringing the warm and settled conditions back just in time for the Easter break. Gone is the threat of snow on this run. Instead it would increasingly light winds and temperatures nudging into the low 20s. No support from the ENS mean for such a big area of high pressure. But winds do turn more westerly as the easter weekend progresses with warmer uppers being dragged into the mix.

 

 

[Panayiotis]

^^It comes back at the end though!

[049balt]

^^It comes back at the end though!

I think there is no escaping a change to much cooler weather in the second half of April.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I posted yesterday about how I thought many were overdoing the likely sunshine amounts over the coming week, but the models have pushed the high pressure a bit further north this morning which means that although we're still looking at a general NW-SE split, the cloudy conditions are more likely to be mostly restricted to the north-west of the country.  Saturday looks like being quite a cloudy day for most, but up until Tuesday most of England and Wales look like having dry and mostly sunny conditions, though with more cloud for much of Scotland and Cumbria and some rain at times in the west of Scotland.

 

Cooler and more changeable conditions are still looking likely over Easter but I note that the ECMWF operational run this morning shows a build of pressure over the south during the second half of the Easter weekend, as well as the GEFS ensembles.  The GFS 06Z run is almost certainly overdoing this though, and the ECMWF ensemble mean and the NOAA 8-14 update from yesterday evening are still showing the Scandinavian low as being a more dominant feature, so it could still go either way with the cooler cyclonic outlook still the more probable of the two.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think the GFS clearly enjoys pouring super glue over all the UK based to-good-to-be-true Northerlies it shows in the dreamland zone. They always get 'stuck' in Fantasy Island. At least that has appeared to be the case in these last few months. It's true, however, that it can be one of the best models for spotting Northerlies first (and it had done well with that Northerly that occurred on 17th December 2010).

The 06Z GFS looks as though it could provide some wintry weather for the hilly areas later next week as that model unleashes a Low Pressure down towards the UK from the North-West. Their does then seem to be that possibility that High-Pressure might try to come to the rescue for the Easter weekend should the GFS come true. However, if it turned out to be the case that the trough to the North remains too powerful, then it looks as though it could turn out to be 1 - 0 to the Low Pressure systems during that weekend. Will indeed likely need to see future model runs, as well as keeping an eye on future anomaly charts, to see how things keep developing around Easter and whether High Pressure to our South-West can unleash enough power to deflect the Scandinavian trough (if it definitely happens) far enough North-East to allow the High to take a vacation over the UK.

Edited April 10, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Summer Sun]

Looking at this afternoons 12z runs of GFS and UKMO we still don't have agreement at t144

 

 

GFS is the only one to go beyond t144 at the moment and it continues to point towards a colder snap with northerly winds feeding down chilly air for the time of year showers would fall as snow over high ground

 

 

Continued signals from GFS point to pressure rising slowly during good Friday

 

 

That leads to a settled Saturday, Easter Sunday & Monday

 

 

This is 3 runs in a row now for a decent Easter weekend with the only possibly iffy day Good Friday which is dependent on how quickly the low pulls away

Edited April 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Conor Sherwin]

 ino its not going to happen put is this cold 

[knocker]

Not really.

[Milhouse]

Growing support for an improving Easter weekend which starts off cool and showery but ends fairly mild and dry. Never getting that warm however as it takes time to shake off quite a chilly NE feed. The main unsettled spell looks limited to Wednesday-Friday on the GFS with temperatures dipping to their lowest during this time as well.

 

Up until then its a typical N/S split with more dry and pleasant conditions to come for England and Wales.

 

It has to be said the UKMO is making very little of next weeks low that digs south on the GFS around midweek. Perhaps the GFS is overdoing it somewhat.

[Captain Shortwave]

The difference between the GFS and UKMO are rather large here, the GFS wants to drop the trough east of the UK and bring in a northerly before the Azores high collapses over the UKMO brings a much stronger jet streak coming out of the States giving a flatter pattern, this would probably continue a generally average westerly flow and very much different from pretty much anything we have seen over recent suites.

GEM follows the GFS with the cold end to next week but high pressure building over the top of the sinking low.

Before a grotty northeasterly sets in

Edited April 10, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[049balt]

All the weather forecasts are equally uncertain about what is going to happen after Wednesday, but the trend is for cooler and unsettled spell ahead, the BIG question is what happens in the medium term, the rest of April, are we going to get stuck in a cold Northerly/Easterly air flow like last year or will we revert back to the very benign conditions of the past few weeks.

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows an unsettled and cool start to the Easter weekend but its an improving picture for the north as the weekend progresses though it shows the south could remain prone to more unsettled weather

 

 

It looks like pressure will peak at its lowest next Thursday with a steady rise taking place as the Easter weekend progresses

 

 

Looking at things tonight we'll probably see an unsettled start to the Easter weekend but an improving picture as we move through to Easter Sunday and Monday which would please a lot of people I'm sure

Edited April 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Well this is the coldest chart Ive seen since the 2012/13 Winter!!  

[Captain Shortwave]

Err.....

Well we have complete model disagreement at this time. ECM much drier and warmer than the rest.

[Milhouse]

ECM favouring high pressure next week

 

[Summer Sun]

Well ECM only goes for a glancing blow tonight for the north with the far south / south west missing it before rising temperatures and high pressure arrives for the start of the Easter weekend

 

 

Edited April 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would rather see ECM output happen. Cannot be bothered with useless nagging Northerlies or cold at this point of the year now. It can wait till Mid December!  

[Cloud 10]

Err.....

Well we have complete model disagreement at this time. ECM much drier and warmer than the rest.

 

Yes,some stark differences between especially the GFS and ECM this evening at 144 hrs.

 

ecm..  gfs..

[GRHinPorts]

Tonights ECM seems miles out on a limb compared to all the other models (and indeed most the preceding ECMs). Would be lovely to think it would come off but I won't be surprised if its swept away by 8am tomorrow morning.

[Tony27]

Would rather see ECM output happen. Cannot be bothered with useless nagging Northerlies or cold at this point of the year now. It can wait till Mid December!

8 months is a long wait though, mildies never have to wait 8 months to see warmth and sunshine 

[Captain Shortwave]

^

What's the point of it being 7-10C, grey, wet and cold. You need absolutely perfect synoptics to get some decent wintry weather at this time of year. All the models have tried to do is return us to pre-March weather which frankly I never want to see again

Tonights ECM seems miles out on a limb compared to all the other models (and indeed most the preceding ECMs). Would be lovely to think it would come off but I won't be surprised if its swept away by 8am tomorrow morning.

Well this mornings ECM wasn't really buying cool and unsettled and the UKMO this evening doesn't look like heading that way too. Just the GFS and GEM going that way now.