Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[ANYWEATHER]

Easter weekend looks cool and unsettled from both gfs and ecm

[knocker]

This weekend looks like a squeeze between high pressure to the SW and low to the NE according to the ECM. A bit breezy from WNW and quite cool.

 

 

[Frank Trough]

Easter weekend looks cool and unsettled from both gfs and ecm

 

Whilst there is rain still grazing the north of the coutry, even the ECM is slowly starting to back a dry and fine weekend for many

 

And wanting to extend it into next week.

 

yes, while we're talking of "trends" there has certainly been one to improve the weekend. I'm not sure any of the operational output shows anything i would describe as "cool" for sunday at least? (away from the far north).

 

here's how the ECM saw sunday yesterday evening:

 

 

 

 

probably revert to a raging northwesterly tomorrow morning now! anyway, we can expect these sort of tweaks as approach Easter, for good or bad. What's shown at 240 isn't likely to verify.

[Barry12]

Easter weekend looks cool and unsettled from both gfs and ecm

 

Good job its 10 days out and won't verify

[Paul]

Good job its 10 days out and won't verify

 

With this being the model discussion, what would you expect people to discuss, what the models aren't showing?

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble supporting a rise in pressure from Friday to the 15th, the only exception to this is parts of Scotland at times but for England and wales it looks like a settled is on the way

 

 

t216 and t240 sees the high slipping away with a north westerly flow

 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Well it seems like the last 24 hrs has seen a big upgrade of high pressure which will influence our weather on into next week. So for another 7 days at least. Time will tell whether or not the fairly dry conditions will last that long, but the upcoming weekend is shaping up very nicely. More unsettled conditions do appear round about day 9 but that still indicates potentially 8 days of springlike warmth and much needed dry weather before any breakdown occurs. Once again a northerly gets removed before it enters the reliable timeframe. Do i detect a theme emerging here.

 

Looking lovely down in London for FA Cup semi final day on Sunday with temps of 17/18c.

[Conor Sherwin]

how cold dose it have to be for snow on the cfs temp ?

[Captain Shortwave]

Low pressure west of Portugal will need watching over the next few runs. Very interesting little feature. Possible Spanish plume set up and even at this time of year there could be some serious warmth pumped northwards towards the UK. Both the GFS and ECM sniffing this now.

A lot of warmth bottling up the other side of the English channel.

Mid twenties widespread. Would not take much to get the warmth to reach the UK.

 

FI then brings a cold snap almost immediately. The amplified pattern sending a lot of warmth and possible cold air our way. Interesting situation approaching the Easter weekend.

Edited April 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Do you always post the coolest, wettest charts you can find?

Cut out the personal digs, some post the most anticyclonic charts they can find...everyone has their own preference and as long as it's what the models are showing then it's fine.

[vladthemert]

glad 9-10 days is too far for accuracy.  We also got GFS talking low squeezed by two highs in north sea this could be very bad.  I believe 1953 storm surge was squeezed low.    I hope they are wrong.

 

[knocker]

Precisely my point all the models slowly pointing towards high pressure dominating the weather end of this week onwards which is what the ukmo and gfs were showing on the 00zs!!about the ecm I was on about the winter just gone!!everytime it showed a northerly or easterly most of the time the gfs was not having it and was a lot flatter and less amplified across america and the atlantic compared to ecm!!eventually ecm backed down and followed the gfs!!to be fair ecm had a horror show winter just gone!!

 

Okay but regarding model performance certainly up to 2012.

 

 

 You first notice that forecasts are all getting better. That's good.  But you will notice that the most skillful forecast (closest to one)  is clearly the red one...the European Center.  The second best is the UKMET office.  The U.S. (GFS model) is third...roughly tied with the Canadians.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/us-fallen-behind-in-numerical-weather.html

[knocker]

glad 9-10 days is too far for accuracy.  We also got GFS talking low squeezed by two highs in north sea this could be very bad.  I believe 1953 storm surge was squeezed low.    I hope they are wrong.

 

 

 

Not quite. For the record.

 

 

On the night of Saturday 31 January 1953 and morning of 1 February 1953 the North Sea was experiencing spring tides. A deep Atlantic depression passed to the north of Scotland and moved southeast down the North Sea. The northerly gales on the western side of this depression forced sea water south at the time of high tide, causing a tidal surge down the North Sea which locally exceeded 5.6 metres (18.4 ft) above mean sea level. The winds also generated very large waves in the North Sea that damaged coastal defences. A maximum gust of 126 mph was observed at Costa Hill, Orkney as the storm centre pressure fell to 964 hPa over the northern North Sea.

 

The combination of high spring tides, storm surge, winds and very large waves resulted in sea defences being overwhelmed in some locations, leading to extensive flooding. In England, 307 people were killed in the counties of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. Nineteen were killed in Scotland, whilst 1800 people lost their lives in the Netherlands.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

[049balt]

^{GFS all over the place as usual but still predicting a lot of dry weather.}

 

^{http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html}

[Summer Sun]

General idea from the models again this morning is to bring in a low pressure system around day 10 which typically is just in time for the first bank holiday weekend of 2014

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

ECM goes for day 9

 

 

The next 8 days sees the 2m temperatures remaining above normal for all but some parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland

 

 

Precipitation wise to the 24th it still looks fairly dry still for most of England and Wales

 

 

In the short term UKMO continues to offer a decent weekend for many which continues into next week

 

Edited April 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[vladthemert]

Not quite. For the record.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

 

thank you knocker sorry late reply been out, so not quite the scenerio.  IF the thing does develop to the models thinking cant be good looks very windy with tightness isobars.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO not as settled for the north this afternoon as it was this morning

 

Friday starts off with pressure rising

 

 

Into Saturday and a deep low crosses the north of Scotland the further south you are the more settled it would be

 

 

By Sunday pressure rises again away from the far north of Scotland where we have a greater risk for any rain but settled for the majority

 

 

Into Monday and we have low pressure centred to the NE of Scotland bringing rain and fairly strong winds to many northern areas the far south and south west would see the best of the weather

 

 

Quite a change from this mornings run which was a very settled one away from northern Scotland will be interesting to see if ECM maintains the settled run it showed this morning later on

Edited April 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

And so the trend continues, for a colder and much more unsettled pm/rpm pattern from the 17th onwards, with the jet continuing to push well South of the UK.

 

Edited April 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[049balt]

And the so trend continues for a colder and much more unsettled pattern from the 17th onwards.

 

I have never seen an April that did not have a sting in it's tail and it looks like in a week to ten days we will feel the full wrath of the North Pole, just hope it will not last long.

[Captain Shortwave]

And so the trend continues, for a colder and much more unsettled pm/rpm pattern from the 17th onwards, with the jet continuing to push well South of the UK.

 

I didn't know that polar maritime air came up from the south? That trough throughout remains west of the UK.

 

The models are trying to develop a trough around day 7/8 just west of the UK as the high over the UK splits, part retrogressing into the western Atlantic, the other going into Europe. How much goes each way could bring big differences in the surface conditions for the UK. if it all pulls west then you will end up with a northerly, likewise if it all goes east you could develop a deep Atlantic trough and very warm southerlies. 

Small changes in this will cause big changes down the line and potentially over Easter. I would rule out calling conditions unsettled as we could quite easily end up with a halfway house and a flat westerly jet with  a mid latitude ridge across the Atlantic into Europe giving rather average conditions.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

I didn't know that polar maritime air came up from the south? That trough throughout remains west of the UK.

 

 

 

Neither did i Captain...

 

All the air over the UK from around the 17th are from a PM/RPM direction, These uppers are not pulling any warmth up from South at all, only rotating over the UK... Anyway nothing set in stone, but as i said the trend continues for a cooler/wetter and more unsettled pattern, with im sure many more different evolutions over the coming days, so pointless going into any detail.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

Quiet weather for just about all during the next week albeit with some minor weather incursions, everything seems to rev up as we approach Easter...

[Conor Sherwin]

10 days from now GEM dose'nt look good

[legritter]

evening all , well as others have pointed out ,any action possibly starting later Next week .i wouldn t want to bet at this range ,Every run seems to change in location of main high pressure  area ,but Easters are well  known for surprises ,and not the chocolate ones .,Take care all ,

[phil nw.]

It looks mainly dry for much of the UK for the next week or so as high pressure takes hold.

 

 

only the far north of Scotland and the N.isles perhaps seeing any rain from fronts brushing across from lows near Iceland.

 

So plenty of settled and fair days with some sunshine around quite widely.No unusual warmth yet with temperatures showing around mid to upper teens for England and Wales and a little cooler further north.It should feel pleasant enough though, especially in the lighter wind further south.

 

The Ens graphs underline the forecasted dry outlook out to the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png

 

A probable change still showing by the Easter weekend on the Ens.outputs.

The day 10 ens charts from GFS/ECM suggest things become less settled from the north.

 

the high slipping west back into the Atlantic with a trough digging se into nw Europe.

This would introduce a cooler more north westerly flow at least for a while-a theme running in the ens suites for a few days now.