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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

GFS is showing a lovely Northerly,  in keeping with this mornings run.

 

 

That's over two weeks away and probably won't happen hopefully!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

That's over two weeks away and probably won't happen hopefully!!!!

 

why hopefully? but agree that it won't happen sadly, not hopefully

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Trend towards cooler conditions taking hold this evening, with the ext ecm showing a negative anomaly into days 10-15; tho before then conditions look average at best.

Posted ImagePosted Image

days 5-10 & 10-15 temp anom.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Just thought i would pop in and say hello ,other issues have been keeping me busy ,well looking at current charts no big weather events look likely over the following week ,but beyond that it could all change tomorrow ,Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The snow and cold rampers association will be having a meeting to discuss the gfs northerly if its still showing next week, exact date and time to be confirmed . SACRA will then be closed until october. :-) just in time for the return of teits and sm.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

WHOA..SACRA will not be closing for a while longer if this verifies from the Gfs 00z op run..i'm dreaming of a white easterPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

It remains a fairly changeable outlook in the immediate future turning generally more settled by middle of next week away from the far NW thanks to the influence of the azores high which will be ridging NE towards SW England. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty how robust these heights will be and whether they manage to get a proper foothold or are squeezed back SW due to lower heights and trough action to our NW being a more dominant force.

 

Its a classic westerly pattern where you get weak ridge followed by trough, and it does look quite a fluid pattern despite the Jetstream tracking further NW.

 

In overview, a fairly typical outlook for the time of year, temperatures however will stay on the above side of average notably so in the south, but under cloud and rain it won't feel very springlike. Further north temperatures closer or at average but generally less in the way of sunshine and dry conditions.

 

I thought this April would offer up a few surprises synoptic wise, I guess we have had quite an unusual pattern this last week, with low heights coming unstuck to our SW despite a rather weak high pressure force to our NE. The second half of April could throw up a few surprises though as the PV will finally be in retreat and wane from its resident Canadian home - might we see elusive height rises to our NW? and an elusive flow from the north - often happens as we reach late April.

 

The GFS  MJO forecast is going for a rapid change to phase 8 towards mid-April,which probably

explains its monster northerlies in the last few runs.

 

 

 

The 500mb height anomaly for phase 8 below..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

WHOA..SACRA will not be closing for a while longer if this verifies from the Gfs 00z op run..i'm dreaming of a white easterPosted Image

 

Yes Frosty a growing trend over the last few days, and again continues this morning.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK

Thats 3 runs in a row the GFS has been going for a potent northerly over Easter. Surely too far out for any real accuracy but the evolution in each case makes sense. High pressure retracting west into the mid-Atlantic to bring about a classic Spring switcharound.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8 day GFS temperature anomaly remains above average

 

Posted Image

 

14th to 21st looks pretty wet it has to be said

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Thats 3 runs in a row the GFS has been going for a potent northerly over Easter. Surely too far out for any real accuracy but the evolution in each case makes sense. High pressure retracting west into the mid-Atlantic to bring about a classic Spring switcharound.

Actually the pub run last night did not go for a northerly

Posted Image

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Very different in fact.

There does appear to be some thoughts on increasing the amplification of the pattern which is bringing these rather more extreme looking set-ups, but one must be cautious of the GFS over-expressing these in low resolution as can often be the case. Worth noting that even by day 10 the ECM and GEM are not going for anything close to this. ECM is keeping a mixed westerly flow with the south mostly dry but rain at times in the north.

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

The GEM wants to push in a more robust area of heights which brings settled and pleasant weather for all of the UK in week 2.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes Frosty a growing trend over the last few days, and again continues this morning.

 

Posted Image

Fingers crossed PM...would be nice to have at least one cold snap before the risk of snow becomes zero for almost 7 months. I feel cheated and robbed of a winter but this would be a case of..better late than never.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Well it's all pie in the sky at the moment and hopefully there will be no cold snap and everyone can enjoy a pleasant Easter. At the moment ECM is not looking drastic with the cold broadly spread to the north and and the warmer air to the south giving a west-east flow but this is so delcately poised that reading anything into it at this stage is futile although interesting to see if there is any hardening of conformity by the end of the week.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Ouch!!! Looks like Good Friday will be wintry, thank goodness its in the unreliable timeframe..Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

post-6830-0-41572200-1396777614_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The Easter northerly shown by the 00z GFS is probably overdone but the ens and height anomalies do favour the main Atlantic high further west allowing heights to drop around nw Europe as we approach Easter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014040600/EDH101-240.GIF?06-12

 

it all depends on the amplification of the flow but i would think maybe a cooler and unsettled north westerly setup is quite possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Changes on the 06z as the northerly has got pushed back and high pressure is closer by

 

Posted Image

 

Compared to this on the 00z

 

Posted Image

 

06z left 00z right

 

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06z left 00z right

 

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06z left 00z right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

No hints of anything cold from the met either out to Easter Sunday other than local frosts with a north south split favoured at this stage

 

By Monday (14th), it turns drier and sunnier across southern areas, with rain and stronger winds in the north. Temperatures will be mostly near normal but rather warm in the south, although local frost is still possible. Thereafter, a north/south split in the weather looks likely, with southern areas enjoying the driest conditions with wetter and windier periods in the north.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I always have more trust in the 00z than the 6z..hopefully a screaming Northerly for Easter thenPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I always have more trust in the 00z than the 6z..hopefully a screaming Northerly for Easter thenPosted Image

Only 2 of the last 6 GFS runs have shown a northerly in low resolution. Some people using the word trend, I use the phrase GFS FI :p

No real evidence for anything remarkably away from average from what I've seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Only 2 of the last 6 GFS runs have shown a northerly in low resolution. Some people using the word trend, I use the phrase GFS FI Posted Image

No real evidence for anything remarkably away from average from what I've seen.

It's more about the potential, if the gfs is on to something, it just shows that even by mid april we can get a POTENT Arctic Blast, before the arctic starts to warm up.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The Easter northerly shown by the 00z GFS is probably overdone but the ens and height anomalies do favour the main Atlantic high further west allowing heights to drop around nw Europe as we approach Easter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014040600/EDH101-240.GIF?06-12

 

it all depends on the amplification of the flow but i would think maybe a cooler and unsettled north westerly setup is quite possible.

 

Yes agree Phil, The Northerly shown by the GFS over the last 3 runs would of shown the extreme outcome, (as we would expect from the GFS at this timeframe..) we can now see a watering down of this trended evolution, and i would expect to see a continuation of a cool unsettled theme from the N/W from mid April. With the outcome being a North/South split as lows swing S/E.

 

 In line with Meto further outlook.

 

"Thereafter, a north/south split in the weather looks likely, with southern areas enjoying the driest conditions with wetter and windier periods in the north."

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I hope so, cold clean air from polar regions would be very nice instead of smoggy, hazy filth, fantastic convection now as well with beefy wintry showers brewing up inland if the conditions are right, temperatures dropping like a stone during the showers, as low as 4c but then recovering rapidly in the sunny spells..great weather.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The Easter northerly shown by the 00z GFS is probably overdone but the ens and height anomalies do favour the main Atlantic high further west allowing heights to drop around nw Europe as we approach Easter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014040600/EDH101-240.GIF?06-12

 

it all depends on the amplification of the flow but i would think maybe a cooler and unsettled north westerly setup is quite possible.

or this version?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

or this one

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

or even this one?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

personally I would back the NOAA version over the other anomaly outputs 9 out of 10 times. But it is interesting to see how many variations on a theme are being shown on the 500mb anomaly charts let alone on the synoptic surface outputs. Remember getting the upper flow near enough correct does NOT guarantee that the surface flow will be correctly predicted. It has, and still is, easier to get the upper flow correct. Many less variable factors the higher you go in the atmosphere, not least of which is humidity.

Edited by johnholmes
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