Convective / Storm Discussion - 30th March 2014 onwards

[SnowJoke]

Sky is really dark here in MK, heavy rain falling possibly convective by the size of the raindrops, just waiting to see if we get any lightning and thunder as the wind has suddenly switched from the NE to the SE and feels a lot warmer than earlier.

[MP-R]

A real squall just moved through here with really torrential rain and strong winds. Still pouring now but completely still and very dark. Feels like thunder any minute.

[Eskimo]

Long rumble of thunder here!

[Tim Bland]

Couple of rumbles in Stevenage Herts

[Convective]

Aside from the slight risks over the next few days, Sunday next week looks good. Obviously at this stage, confidence is relatively low and so this data mustn't be taken too seriously

 

 

 

 

[dave48]

Aside from the slight risks over the next few days, Sunday next week looks good. Obviously at this stage, confidence is relatively low and so this data mustn't be taken too seriously

 

 

 

I do like the 'predictability' that comes with the LP driven sunshine/showers setup compared with spanish plumes so hopefully this will come off. As you say, too early yet to bank this one, however.

 

GFS  has a fairly tight group supporting an increase in pressure as the week goes on followed by a decrease at the end of the week.

 

 

ECMWF presently models a less intense low that wants to move more to the south as opposed to the GFS

 

GFS:

 

ECMWF:

 

 

Exactly how this plays out will determine the extend of the instability over the weekend as well as the wind direction guiding as to the areas most likely to be affected.

 

It will be an interesting one to watch over the next few days, tomorrow we will get an idea of which side the UKMO favours.

[Supacell]

With a day totally free of work I am planning on chasing the showers/storms expected to develop along a line of convergence/warm front from the SE towards N Wales and NW England. Exactly where this line will form is still open to some doubt but along it there is likely to be some lively downpours and possible thunderstorms. Although CAPE is fairly weak on GFS, the WRF model builds up to 500-750J/kg in a narrow line from Essex to Snowdonia - the most prominent to the SE portion of the line. If storms do develop then I would not be surprised to see them take advantage of 30knts of deep layer shear allowing for some organisation of storms.

 

If I was to pick a target area I would say somewhere around Oxfordshire, although anywhere along the line is in with a chance.

[vladthemert]

wow 4 level 1 warnings in europe sadly none for uk accorfing Estofex.  Although just might be squidging according to meteox around 5pm in midlands

 

Meteox though thinks might be something for uk tomorrow or wednesday

[Supacell]

That's a fair drive, Supa. Good luck. 

 

It's questionable whether shear will be much of a player today as those winds aloft begin to only increase gradually past the mid-levels.  However, as with setups that involve very light, converging boundary layer winds, where heating of the surface and instability is maximized stronger updrafts could do well to induce vorticity locally with opposing winds, which brings about a funnel cloud/spout risk with updraft 'stretching'.  Though larger scale shear and cell organisation unlikely today. And still don't think mid-level lapse rates are ideal.  At least we should have good insolation today, so CAPE progs, albeit low, look realistic. 

 

Thank you W09. Not sure now though as to whether the drive is worth it. Looking more into it, and reading your forecast, today's set up could churn out a half decent storm but has a much better likelihood of not producing anything of note. A 200 mile round trip is a long way to see just a heavy shower

There is always a risk element with storm chasing but normally I would need to see a better set up to travel so far. Unfortunate really as its a bank holiday which means no work for me and relatively quiet roads.

[Darren Bown]

Glorious morning here, felt much warmer than the last few days, though a little humid. A slight breeze has picked up and apart from a few ac cas (I think) it's a lovely morning. Possibility here of a thundery downpour later, but I reckon the chance is less than 5%.

[dave48]

WRF wants to produce a band of 600/700 odd CAPE based on surface temps of about 18/19 and dp's around 12/13.

 

Stansted currently 14/12, Cranfield 13/12 so could be something in that.

 

Convergence also visible on http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Will be interested to see if and where any storms do form today along that area of focus.

Edited April 21, 2014 by dave48

[Raidan]

Lovely start to the day here blue sky and the sun is shining.Been browsing different forums to see if I'm in with a chance today and different sites have said different things with one having me in the risk zone.Will be the same as yesterday and be playing the waiting game keeping a eye on things just hope I have better luck today than yesterday.

[Jane Louise]

Beautiful warm sunshine here. Looks to be some good potential for this afternoon! We have a mackerel sky forming here now. Keeping my fingers crossed for us all.

[Convective]

[Eskimo]

Towers are starting to build!

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Towers are starting to build!

 

low.png

Can see them from the ground through the haze! Must admit it feels warm and looks like one of them thundery classic midsummer days!

[dave48]

Towers are starting to build!

 

http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.giflow.png

 

Was just going to post that up! :lol:

 

Clear focus for development there, temps/dp's getting close to where they need to be for some decent enough instability.

 

Warnings on twitter from Liam dutton and others for heavy showers/T storms this afternoon.

[Mapantz]

Here's the BBC's take on the showers, the words "intense thunderstorms" were used. I hope you get lucky if you're in the main zones.

[TheToastPeople]

Looks like a shower has just popped up over london, Here we go people!

[Mapantz]

Looks like a shower has just popped up over london, Here we go people!

[Eskimo]

I can actually smell the sultriness in the air!

[Weather-history]

Altocumulus castellanus time lapse from this morning

[Costa Del Fal]

High cloud ruining chances here. Typical. Warm but little insulation now.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Blizzards

[Chloe]

Torrential rain some thunder looking even better for this arvo

[tara303]

what are the chances of this making it to Ireland??? starved here....