Convective / Storm Discussion - 30th March 2014 onwards

[Arnie Pie]

Blizz ( Our man in the South)....I kinda remember where you keep your cards .....just hoping that this afternoon might bring something along

[Costa Del Fal]

Blizz ( Our man in the South)....I kinda remember where you keep your cards .....just hoping that this afternoon might bring something along

Im back in the Midlands for the Easter holidays mate. :lol: 

 

Yes I hope so too but a lot needs to occur up there in the heavens first. hehe

[Dancerwithwings]

Just plain old rain showers Hope it kicks off later! But i can't see it myself

[Mokidugway]

Cant see much happening tbh , though denmark looks like its getting a good storm !!......

[Costa Del Fal]

Complete bust today. Disappointing week it's turned out to be storm wise really.

[Mokidugway]

Some nice activity over illinois at moment !!!........

[Supacell]

GFS and NMM seem to show an area of interest in the SE corner this evening and into the night with possible imports, however there is currently nothing but light to moderate rain over the continent. The Met Office seems to indicate showers developing over the the N Mids, N England overnight, but no other models seem to pick up on this. There is no telling if any of these will occur and if they do, whether they will be thundery. My thoughts are that there may be some showers but can't see much if any thundery activity.

 

Tomorrow, if we get some sunshine then there is the scope for some decent CAPE to build up and with an area of wind convergence moving north along a trough (shows up nicely on Met Office fax chart) and a cold front moving in from the west then the CAPE could actually be realised. If this happens, and temperatures get high enough, then the likelihood we could see surface based convection with showers and thunderstorms breaking out in Central Southern England, pushing north and east into the Midlands by evening time. However, as was the case today, if cloud amounts are too much then it will be a bust.

 

Whilst all this goes on there is always the risk of isolated pockets of elevated convection along the cold front, although after today I hold out less hope for this.

 

Overall I would say a low risk, but if it comes off then it could produce something pretty good for early April. A big IF though unfortunately.

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomasz Schafernaker mentioned a risk of thunder and a flash of lightning in the Birmingham area tomorrow on the 22.35 forecast. Still think it will be too cloudy, smoggy and cool tomorrow though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Got the rest of April, May, June, July and August left yet! We've had more than enough so far! 

This time last year, we were still getting snow from that nuisance Northeasterly and still SST's of like 3-4c, they're up to 9-10c already! This year looks so much more promising. 

[IanR]

and September and October too, infact most of my thunderstorms occurred in October last year

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

and September and October too, infact most of my thunderstorms occurred in October last year

Very true. Hampshire got a right corker I remember!

[timeless]

Tomasz Schafernaker mentioned a risk of thunder and a flash of lightning in the Birmingham area tomorrow on the 22.35 forecast. Still think it will be too cloudy, smoggy and cool tomorrow though.

according to the weather reports lve heard on the radio (local West Midlands station) they seem to suggest the pollution will be still high along with GFS downgrades again if lm reading things right from the various weather maps lm starting to understand (or at least l hope l lm starting to understand them)..

[Nick F]

A low risk of seeing heavy showers or isolated storms across central and southern parts of England today, given cloud cover, but a risk nonetheless where likely breeze/moisture convergence and any sunshine combine. Storm forecast for today:

 

Storm and Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-04-03 07:58:11

Valid: 03/04/2014 0800z to 04/04/2014 0600z

 

Synopsis
A fairly slack pattern exits across western Europe today, with upper trough still to the west of the UK and ridging across central Europe. A slow-moving cold front lies across Ireland and SW Britain this morning, this will drift slowly NE over the next 24 hours with a shallow area of low pressure moving north along the front across southern and central England.

... C/S and SE ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E WALES and N ENGLAND ...

Airmass ahead of cold front moving slowly up from the SW may (conditionally) become modestly unstable this afternoon ,,, as surface breeze and moisture convergence along with surface heating in any warm sunshine that breaks through cloud cover, builds 200-500 j/kg CAPE under failry steep lapse rates ... as indicated by GFS across the above areas. Isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible in these areas this afternoon during peak heating if there's any prolonged sunshine. Vertical shear will be rather weak though 30-40knt mid-level southerly flow may lend to any heavy showers/storms organising to bring hail up to 1-2cm in diameter and large spot rainfall totals leading to localised flooding. Given any storms will be isolated or may not form at all - due to stratiform cloud cover from approaching cold front, the potential for widespread severe weather seems too low to issue a SLIGHT risk.

Also can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=36ed70ad100eab8af1d8ea5eb20e4487

[vladthemert]

thanks nick.

 

 Incidently portugal had 2 tornado's on 31 march 14, Vale do Lobo & Vilamoura.  Lucky although not for the 2 home owners it did little damage.  How long does take northern spain/portugal storms move north to uk if they head this way.  Might get tornado develop in some storms.

 

http://essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd/eswd.cgi?lang=en_0&lastquery=8512436342&force_static_map=true;

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite a nice cloud clearance across SE England coming in now which may come in time for some mid afternoon heating and hopefully a little convection.

Edited April 3, 2014 by Blizzards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If we are depending on the sun to spark these showers of we are loosing our chances in the south... that window of no cloud over the channel is filling up fast in front of the mass of cloud over the near continent! 

[A.J]

a shame if cloud cover inhibits convection today in southern counties, there is actually some decent energy and bouyancy in the atmosphere currently, especially over the west country,  the best so far this year

[Costa Del Fal]

To move away from the present for a moment...

 

Those in Falmouth and Penryn (Cornwall) will remember last weeks solitary lightning strike and huge crash of thunder. Amazing damage for one bolt at Penryn Rugby club. http://www.falmouthp...CTURES/?ref=mry

 

Was it possible it was a positive CG strike?

[Dancerwithwings]

a shame if cloud cover inhibits convection today in southern counties, there is actually some decent energy and bouyancy in the atmosphere currently, especially over the west country,  the best so far this year

Cloud http://www.sat24.com/en/gb definitely inhibiting any kind of convection so far today! Plus temps to go with that as well... Currently 9.4c

 

 

http://www.monkspathweather.org.uk/skyscape-cam/time-lapse/hourly-time-lapse.html

Edited April 3, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[A.J]

Hi AJ, there is likely very little to no CAPE at the moment because of dense low-level cloudcover. Though without looking at the relevant ascents, couldn't say with any certainty.  Those CAPE progs hinge on much higher temps and sfc dewpoints than is currently being observed.  CAPE builds with insolation, of which there is distinct lack of. 

that's what I said.....I put it in laymans terms so that everyone would understand

[Mapantz]

There was some hazy sunshine earlier, the clouds built up and now it has gone black to my south. There is a touch of rain, nothing too significant but clearly shows how quickly things develop with some sun.

[vladthemert]

czech border having nice lightening storm and something north spain developing all quiet uk.   Got not a chance here we had mist 5 days now fog and  predicted sunday 5pm here to have chance lightening.  Sadly like all winter we going to miss the boat.

[vladthemert]

estofex says this on uk chances.

 

Scattered thunderstorms may be possible here in the noon and afternoon hours. Best chances of organized convection exist over the British Isles, where wind shear is in the order of 10 m/s in the lowest 3 km due to a southerly jet ahead of the west European trough. Multicells are forecast with a weak chance of marginally severe hail and excessive rain. The overall potential seems to be too weak for a level 1 threat.

 

[Mapantz]

Peeing down here now, convective drops of rain too, 2.4mm in a short space of time.

It feels thundery out there with the dark skies.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It does show that when that sun comes out BOOM! Like lighting petrol! Thing is.. you need the match to stay alight for long enough!