South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/03/14

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening, nice day again with decent spells of sunshine and feeling pretty warm. The outlook looks quite warm until the middle of next week now and any cold weather will be short lived with high pressure potentially building back in for the following weekend.

Tomorrow looks tasty, fingers crossed for some storms

[HammerJack]

Well it looks like Sunday will be the best day of the weekend (weather wise). Really hoping for some T&L over the next couple days, but just like snow..... I won't get excited until it's happening.

[lassie23]

Gardeners and farmers beware, possible cold snap ahead! http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

[Eskimo]

Right folks, rarely write forecasts on here but as it's storms we're talking about, wellllll.....

CAPE/LI

 

Some strong CAPE levels over Kent with 1500-1700J/Kg for a time with a lift index of -6. Quite something this early in the year. 

 

Temperatures

 

Very warm for the time of year with some areas reaching 20C. 

Helicity



Moderate helicity levels conductive of isolated weak tornado development. 

 

Looks to be quite an interesting day tomorrow. Should all mechanisms play fairly, it will be an explosive afternoon and evening!

Edited April 24, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[HammerJack]

Quite amazing really. I have two weather apps on my phone, so I thought I would do a comparison. Both completely different! And my comparison starts in 3 hrs time.

[Tom Jarvis]

May go out storm chasing tomorrow after college to see if I can get any good storms

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone else chasing tomoz

[tadpole]

Aternoon, today felt like the warmest day of the year 18c - still not reached 20c. Fairly unusual.This frost malarkey is largely OTT... Yes if will get chilly. But below freezing is out the question, except from north of the border, a light frost does no disaster? Farmers have GM crops which are resistant to frosts. Cooler nights will be a relief, I've been sweltering in my bed. People are by no means searching for cold, the reality is the charts show this, accept it and move on.Tomorrow looks promising for something to "kick off" âš¡ï¸âš¡ï¸âš¡ï¸ As Steve C alluded CAPE is decent over SE/EA ^

 

When you have a garden of your own Daniel you'll understand why growers don't like any frosts now.

Not all the crops by farmers are GM one's and those of us that grow our own have just plain old seeds that produce plants that get frost damaged. 

Even a light frost now will damage fruit tree blossom which means less fruit is grown which means prices go up.

The weather affects not only our day to day lives but also our household food budgets. One of the many reasons I find weather interesting.

Today was spent in my garden, with tomatoes potted on, and listening to baby birds calling from the nearby tree as mummy and daddy blue tits collect meal worms from my bird table for them.

The sun was warm when it wasn't covered by clouds so all in all a lovely spring day.

[A.J]

Right folks, rarely write forecasts on here but as it's storms we're talking about, wellllll.....

CAPE/LI

 

Some strong CAPE levels over Kent with 1500-1700J/Kg for a time with a lift index of -6. Quite something this early in the year. 

 

Temperatures

 

Very warm for the time of year with some areas reaching 20C. 

Helicity

Moderate helicity levels conductive of isolated weak tornado development. 

 

Looks to be quite an interesting day tomorrow. Should all mechanisms play fairly, it will be an explosive afternoon and evening!

interesting variation in output.....as netweather's NMM output differs from meteociel's NMM output in that it progs considerably less CAPE & lift, although still topping an impressive 1100j/kg of SBCape & -4 lifted indices, dewpoints maxxing at 57F, with good lapse rates...Some high levels of mixed layer CAPE as well promoting the chances of elevated storms, which if they develop over the near continent would drift into South Eastern counties without losing any potency....certainly a scenario to watch for south east and eastern England tomorrow afternoon and into the evening

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Tomorrow

Dry start

Clouding over pm

Late pm to around midnight a chance of something stormy

Temps 15-20 degrees

Feeling humid as the day goes on

Saturday

Some sun but also heavy downpours

Temps 15-17 degrees

Sunday

Not sure yet

Hope your all well

John

[Jax]

not used to JP posts you casn read on the same page.

 

 

Good to see you JP

[Nick F]

Some storms brewing near Normandy coast this evening, probably elevated, ECM takes them towards the south coast overnight, be interesting if anything electrified arrives there later.

[lottiekent]

Some storms brewing near Normandy coast this evening, probably elevated, ECM takes them towards the south coast overnight, be interesting if anything electrified arrives there later.

I'll let you know if I see anything!Edit: Too far west for me I think. Edited April 24, 2014 by lottiekent

[Daniel*]

When you have a garden of your own Daniel you'll understand why growers don't like any frosts now.Not all the crops by farmers are GM one's and those of us that grow our own have just plain old seeds that produce plants that get frost damaged. Even a light frost now will damage fruit tree blossom which means less fruit is grown which means prices go up.The weather affects not only our day to day lives but also our household food budgets. One of the many reasons I find weather interesting.Today was spent in my garden, with tomatoes potted on, and listening to baby birds calling from the nearby tree as mummy and daddy blue tits collect meal worms from my bird table for them.The sun was warm when it wasn't covered by clouds so all in all a lovely spring day.

I totally understand that, we have a garden not the prettiest sight, we have a grape vine. It always bears fruit every year, small sour black grapes. It is edible not much can be said apart from that. There is something rewarding about not having something with your mark on it. It has started budding so we do not need any frost either. I just wanted to add my perspective, it's not all doom & gloom Not sure if this is a Old Wife's' Tale but a light frost can make fruit sweeter? Edited April 24, 2014 by Daniel*

[Biggin]

Some storms brewing near Normandy coast this evening, probably elevated, ECM takes them towards the south coast overnight, be interesting if anything electrified arrives there later.

BBC saying good chance of Thunderstorms  tomorrow  evening  as Temps could make 20 late afternoon.

[Eskimo]

Cloud tops actually rising as they hit the south coast, a good thing!!

[Nick F]

I'll let you know if I see anything!Edit: Too far west for me I think.

 

Yes, they do appear to be headed NW on trajectory for Hants or even Dorset, better chance for the southeast tomorrow evening I think.

[Nick F]

BBC saying good chance of Thunderstorms  tomorrow  evening  as Temps could make 20 late afternoon.

 

18z GFS looks rather mean with the CAPE compared to the previous runs, but their charts not to be totally trusted. Certainly the airmass will be unstable behind the showery rain moving NW in the morning, may even import some storms from the near continent too.

[Keraunic]

Ipswich has a 62% chance of storms tomorrow (late evening) going by the 'Will It' forecasts. I'm trying not to get too excited...but I can't help it. Oooooh! I hope we do get some.

Fingers crossed, fellow storm lovers.

Night night.

[Tom Jarvis]

Level 1 for the south east on estofex

[Jax]

Rained here this evening, glad I was not going out in it (got wet last night)

[Steve C]

Anyone else chasing tomoz

Won't be chasing myself in a big way, during the Friday rush hour, but might travel somewhere quite locally, if the radar shows anything worthwhile.

[Eskimo]

Strong showers are actually building in the channel, certainly a different scenario than the last few years!

[Neilsouth]

Makes you wonder as we didn't have a cold winter! Me thinks imports will be rather violent this year

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, hope you are all well, certainly a dull old day here in dreary Dartford. No rain as yet, but it got the look of rain, think there could be something in the storms forecast for later today. Off to our Peterborough office for a one o'clock meeting, must be getting old agreeing to that on a Friday, hope everyone has a good POETS day today, and for those of us who got to use the Dartford bridge let's hope its clear tonight. Have a good one.

Edited April 25, 2014 by Charltonkerry