South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/03/14

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

 

First day back to work today after annual leave so I am feeling a mixture of  and panic at the amount of emails I have come back to

 

Like others have said, it's great to see some of the old regulars back posting - you have been missed!

 

Tom and Tamara, loved the pictures you posted of the beauty of NW Kent.  The river at Eynsford has particular memories for me - mainly of Mr Raven driving his car through the river by The Plough pub.  Well, I say driving through - more killing the engine and then floating out the other side.  This was back in the early days of our relationship where I can only assume the silly sod was showing off - and wrote his car off in the process 

 

There was a slight frost on the car this morning and it's quite nippy out.  Well worth it though as it looks like we are in for another day of wall to wall sunshine - I just wish I was out enjoying it and not cooped up in the office!

 

Hi Leeanne,

 

Hope you are well, yes my first proper day back at work too, after taking some leave off last week, although I did work on Sunday but had a day off yesterday. Busy work schedule right over the Easter period, with horse racing being permitted for the first time on Good Friday. 

Yes, we managed to take some lovely photos of the area. Agree with you Leeanne, the Darent Valley area has always been a favourite of mine, ever since doing a walk on a Geography field trip from school. The walk along footpaths, mainly alongside the River Darent, from Eynsford to Otford, is a great way to spend a few hours relaxing, it's hard to believe it's so close to suburban towns such as Orpington/Bromley.

Many of my classmates were thoroughly bored with the field trip, whilst geeky "Geography Boy" here decided to bring along his Ordnance Survey map of the area. I spent most of the walk thinking about "Snow Chase" potential of the area but to this day have never managed to get out there, when its snowed.

Here's one more snow video from me, of an Otford snowfall, early December 2010.

 

 

 

Hello my friends,

 

Groggily back from having the flu. Twas bl**dy awful, but great for the figure!

 

The weather has been very obliging and after disgracing itself over winter has managed to be rather lovely.

 

Ground frost this morning. My little seedlings were shocked, but survived thankfully. Enjoy this lovely weather everyone

 

Hi Jan,

 

Sorry to hear you've been rough with flu but glad that you're recovering again now. 

 

Tom.

Edited April 15, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[Snowangel-MK]

Splendid day here today, really nice warm sunshine and lots of people out and about enjoying the Easter holidays which is good...

 

 

Another chilly night and frosty morning tomorrow by the looks of it ....

 

 

 

 

[A.J]

not what I wanted to hear...

 

 

 

...permission to chuck a wobbly and full on foot stomping strop!

permission denied, strops belong in the model thread during a snowless winter only

[Jax]

permission denied, strops belong in the model thread during a snowless winter only

WELL!!!!

 

 

(watch out for the teddies and dummies about to come flying your way!)

[Captain Shortwave]

not what I wanted to hear...

 

 

 

...permission to chuck a wobbly and full on foot stomping strop!

Model output doesn't really suggest anything dramatically unsettled. More a complex and slack pattern with winds from an easterly quarter. Rain or showers at times with temperatures near average.

[A.J]

WELL!!!!

 

 

(watch out for the teddies and dummies about to come flying your way!)

*brushed aside and ducked with ease*

[Jax]

Model output doesn't really suggest anything dramatically unsettled. More a complex and slack pattern with winds from an easterly quarter. Rain or showers at times with temperatures near average.

must admit have been taking in the model output and rather hoping I was missing something that others may pick up on that sides with warmer and calmer/dryer for next month (still it is a way off yet).

[Jax]

*brushed aside and ducked with ease*

:lol:

 

come what may I will enjoy me week off next month, what ever the weather (no firm plans for the week yet mind)

[A.J]

 

come what may I will enjoy me week off next month, what ever the weather (no firm plans for the week yet mind)

aye, fingers crossed it'll be gloriously sunny and warm.

[Daniel*]

Overnight is forecasted to be even more chillier then yesterday, quite cold for April standards. Below freezing in frost prone areas away from towns and cities. Once the sun makes a appearance it will warm up nicely. Chilly nights followed by pleasant spring sunshine, is on the agenda. Perfect Spring weather. Hope your all having a nice evening forumites :-)

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

*brushed aside and ducked with ease*

This is one of the reasons I love looking at this thread.

 

We have some fun, some great analysis (the usual suspects) and rarely get upset.

 

Weather wise (staying on topic ) been a lovely day in Weybridge, but cold at home out of the sun, mind you not that warm in the shade here.

 

Looking forward to a long weekend after a drive that you can guarantee will last an age as I go home on Thursday pm

[Jax]

This is one of the reasons I love looking at this thread.

 

We have some fun, some great analysis (the usual suspects) and rarely get upset.

And that gets an amen from me

 

feeling nippy out there now (just finished watching bang goes the theory (recorded) and put the rubbish out, feeling like another frost for the morning may be in the offing)

[abruzzi spur]

Hello all, from the sun-kissed Welsh Riviera (in a list of phrases I thought I would never use, that one comes first).

 

Yesterday was lovely but today has surpassed even that  - this afternoon we went to Penbryn, the tides are Spring at the moment so there's a massive tidal range, and by the time we arrived the sea had scarpered towards Cork leaving sands as far as the feet could walk under skies of brushed pale blue.  We had no props with us other than one small ball, found a spot that worked and then did what some would call nothing.  During this nothing we slowly absorbed the sun, heard and tried to second guess the roll of the waves as even the 17 year old went back in time, kicked a ball around with his younger brother, and the dog dug trenches, holes and caverns and then filled them in before starting all over.  As we left the tide had just started it's turn, heading in, not allowing us more than a few hours of uninterrupted beauty but always happy to let us back again after it's shown us who's boss.

 

Went to the local suppliers' weekly market in the village this morning, got chatting to a farmer, sells meat and veg, but sold us a bag of salad leaves, he let us try first, flowers mixed in, like nothing from a supermarket, spicy, raw and mysterious.  74p!

 

Another day of sun tomorrow, so we are told by local forecaster Derek.  We came here with no suncream and full of raincoats.  Looks like we got it wrong, twice! 

 

AS  

Edited April 15, 2014 by abruzzi spur

[john pike]

hi all

 

hope your well

 

tonight

 

cold and dry

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

an east-south east flow and will feel chilly

 

rain = none

 

cloud and sunny spells

 

temps

 

 

11-14 degrees

 

locally again may see a shade higher if you see prolonged sun

 

watch for cloud coastal regions which may tag the temp

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a more south east flow so not as cold

 

rain = none

 

temps

 

 

frost unlikely

 

but watch for fog

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a breezy north west flow

 

rainfall

 

it looks to stay dry but there is a chance that front from the north may produce some mid pm showers

moreso north of our region

 

looks like more cloud pm either way

 

temps

 

13-16 degrees

 

locally a 17 possible

 

wind chill we be noticeable today though

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday night

 

a northerly flow

 

looks cloudy so temps should stay up

 

 

no rain

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday

 

a weak northerly flow

 

east coasts will feel chilly in that

 

rain = none

 

 

between 10-14 degrees

 

sunny spells again

 

anyway thats it for now

 

back later

 

john

[Flaked Queen]

Freezing tonight

[snow raven]

Beautiful out there! It's the best weather I've had on my birthday for YEARS. Vividly remember being on a caravan holiday somewhere in the SW when I was about 9 or 10 and it snowing so much we had to go out to argos to get some fan heaters to warm us all up!

Happy Birthday Team Jo, so pleased the weather played ball this year! Hope you have had a lovely day Edited April 15, 2014 by snow raven

[Jax]

Got the storage heaters back on low

[Eskimo]

Could be some thundery rain to end the week!

[john pike]

fax charts are really late tonight

 

heres saturday

 

 

a breezy easterly flow

 

very early morning rain but

 

still looks dry during the day

 

temps

 

 

around 12-14 degrees

 

however east coasts may see lower values due to the flow of the wind and cloud

 

sunday to follow

[john pike]

sunday

 

 

a variable north east flow

 

warm front and low pressure to our east moving in

 

as perfect says looks potentially thundery

 

temps

 

 

probably be warmer than of late

 

however i will wait a couple of days before predicting this as i am not

 

convinced re this low track yet

[john pike]

12z ensembles for london from ecm

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

seems reasonable agreement on being wet on the 20th

 

these are looking cold on the 20th but have a feeling these are too low

 

some breezy bits

 

disagreement on the 22nd so thats fi on these

 

thats my lot tonight

 

goodnight all

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all, another clear start here with a slight frost. Have a great day everyone

[hernebaylooby]

Hello everyone! Hope you are all well ive not been on lately as i have been ill for the last 4 weeks starting with a stomach bug then a cold then full on flu where i couldnt get out of bed and tonsillitis finally followed up by another cold and ear infection! i now seem to be on the mend and on a brighter note ive had everything so i should be good for a while! Just aswell as we now have 3 little ducklings to raise. Anyway the weather has been lovely here managed to leave my bed sunday to lay in the garden was a tad chilly here last night but warming nicely x

Edited April 16, 2014 by hernebaylooby

[Tamara]

Lovely pictures once again Ian

 

I haven't done any summaries for a while, so here is an early/provisional look at what might be in store that takes in the Easter weekend and into next week. Subject to changes more especially in detail at this time of course,

 

The fine weather inspiring all the beautiful regional photography looks set to last in our region through to the first part of the Easter Holiday. A little more cloud around at times (such as tomorrow f.e) but it will feel pleasantly warm still in the sunshine with temperatures a degree or two higher tomorrow, despite the cloud, as some warmer upper air glances over the region for a time

 

 

It should stay generally dry right through to later on Saturday - but with an increasing shield of rain advancing cloud towards evening perhaps. Then most especially overnight on Saturday, things look set to change and there is already quite good model agreement for a wet start to Sunday with some heavy rain around

 

We see the rain approaching from the east towards the Belgian coast by midnight - this is in association with a shallow trough that moves westwards and northwards from the continent and across our region during Sunday

 

 

 

 

 

Timing and detal obviously too uncertain this far away, but (at least at this stage) the more persistent rain looks set hopefully to clear from many southern and eastern parts of the region by lunchtime/early afternoon but still perhaps some showers around as the shallow low sits across central southern parts by this time

 

 

 

 

Thereafter there starts to be some divergence of agreement. All the models agree on the weather turning more unsettled, but as far as our region is concerned the rest of the Easter Holiday Monday and the first part of next week depends on how the shallow low is handled. The uncertainties for our region can be seen below with the small differences of position that will determine shower distribution

 

There is reasonable consensus in general terms for a sunshine and showers type scenario with, probably, a flabby cyclonic variable/southerly returning airstream over the region. Though depending on the exact position and orientation of the low, then perhaps it is western most parts of the region that may see most of the showers according to the ECM.

 

 

 

Whilst UKMO agrees the broad pattern with ECM, it places the shallow low maybe fractionally slightly further east. Maybe a wetter solution for us if that verified with shower convergence zones setting up close to the centre of the low. Tiny differences, but in this type of shallow pattern they can mean the differences between potential downpours and escaping with a dry day. For a holiday weekend this takes on greater significance obviously

 

 

The GFS thereafter wants to phase the remnants of the continental low with more major vorticity attached to lower heights in the atlantic in association with the jet stream flattening in the atlantic and pushing eastwards. This consequently taking High pressure to the north and NE away from influencing us.

 

 

However, almost all the other modelling disagrees completely and retains an upper ridge to our north and north east and with that slack shallow low pressure across us it would mean a continuation of the sunshine/showers type regime in general terms. The ECM EPS ensemble maps that have recently updated support this and clearly indicate that the shallow low looks much likely to remain as a cut-off feature close by, or over the UK and not phase thereafter with lower heights to the west or north west.

 

 

A ridge perhaps extending instead, close to or just south of Iceland and through into Scandinavia with those lower heights suggested over the UK and nearby continent. This persisting through the first part of next week after the Easter Holiday.

 

 

However, Monday onwards is subject to some changes certainly in terms of detail until the placement of pressure systems is determined more exactly on our micro scale level, even if the general atlantic and european pattern seems to be shaping up

Edited April 16, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[A.J]

Top notch analysis there Tamara...I haven't checked the T500 charts yet, but if there's a nice cold pool aloft, then we woud see a natural steepening of lapse rates with a good chance a heavy showers/thunderstorms with any diurnal heating