South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/03/14

[Daniel*]

Daniel you live in the wrong part of south east london, it was lovely here this afternoon after a nippy start. Dark clouds rolled in around 7pm but that helps keep the temps up so I don't mind.

The wrong part well it improved in the afternoon, not picture perfect. How strange we might go through April without a single day of exceeding 20c, late this year. Thursday looks good, CAPE is decent, according to the GFS 12Z, hope it don't get downgraded. Any imports we get should stand a better chance of retaining there potency. Or gaining Positive anomalies dominating around the British Isles. Edited April 28, 2014 by Daniel*

[Crepuscular Ray]

Daniel, your post appears to have had triplets!

 

Anyone got any clear idea of how cold/wet it will be on Saturday afternoon yet? I've got a bus-conducting job and need to get the thermals out if it's going to be too bad!

[A.J]

The wrong part well it improved in the afternoon, not picture perfect. How strange we might go through April without a single day of exceeding 20c, late this year. Thursday looks good, CAPE is decent, according to the GFS 12Z, hope it don't get downgraded. Any imports we get should stand a better chance of retaining there potency. Or gaining Positive anomalies dominating around the British Isles.

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it won't be imports on thursday....Any storms will be home growns, looking at the GFS12z output (and bare in mind, still time for some adustments) surface CAPE will build during the day over southern counties (providing there is enough insolation) with a shallow & filling LP in situ with a slack westerly flow with attendent cold pool at T500 boundary which will steepen lapse rates... 12z progs low level convergence from the West Country to the home counties during the afternoon, so once again, if parameters fall in place, that would be the most likely area for showers/weak storms to form, and drift slowly ESE along the steering mid level winds. the 12z output also progs low level convergence over East Anglia and Humber during the afternoon, so again these areas would be at risk from some slow moving downpours

[john pike]

friday

 

a breezy north east flow

 

rainfall

 

 

probably see some light drizzle to our east

 

other than that looks dry

 

temps

 

between 9-12 degrees

 

locally a shade warmer if you see a lot of sun

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

a breezy north east flow

 

rain

 

 

none

 

temps

 

around 8-10

 

maybe a shade lower on east coastal and north east coastal due to cloudcover and a chilly wind

 

watch for a COLD friday night

 

 

these are a guide for now as confidence is still low at present on these

[Jax]

Mist is starting to form here, cool not cold mind.

 

 

In other news got a call a while ago say three more goslings have hatched and we now have nine (Happy bunny (can I say bunny?))

[Crepuscular Ray]

No mist here yet, although I won't be surprised if there's some in the morning.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[Captain Shortwave]

I thought the weekend looked rather cooler than recent temps have been had Matt

Whoops missed this earlier.

Saturday looks quite chilly with temperatures probably 9-13C, watch out for frost Friday and Saturday night.

By Sunday temperatures should be back to the seasonal average and by Monday we will be beginning to pick up a southerly flow of sorts which should help temperatures rise towards 20C.

 

GFS temperatures charts from the 12z run but the basic gist is there

 

Beyond that the ECM and GEM really crank the high pressure through the gears and place it east of the UK. GFS wants to bring the Atlantic in and return us to a westerly pattern if still rather warm for the time of year. Given the GFS op seems out of kilter with its ensembles longer term, I might perhaps back a near nationwide anticyclonic and possibly very warm spell for some next week.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Captain Shortwave]

Might as well add that it's clear and rather mild outside. Night all 

[Jax]

fax update

 

tonight

 

the odd shower around

 

but should be warm and dry

 

watch for mist locally

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

 

a weak east - north east flow

 

rainfall

 

 

looks likely sunny spells early afer any mist clears

 

pm may see some localised heavy showers

 

 

a possible rumble or 2 but that would be more likely he further south you are

 

the far north of our region may stay dry all day

 

temps

 

 

around 11-15 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a weak north east flow

 

rain

 

 

 

 

showers through the night and the odd heavy burst

 

should clear before morning except persistant showers effecting north of our region

 

temps

 

no cold

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

 

a slight breeze from the south west south of our region

 

north east north of our region

 

rain

 

 

after the morning rain from the north clears

 

it looks to stay mainly dry

 

however we may see the odd heavy shower in the afternoon ( low risk though)

 

temps

 

around 12-15 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

a breezy west flow

 

rain

 

 

starts dry

 

but rain incoming before rush hour

 

not cold

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a variable flow but looks westerly

 

rain

 

 

wash out today

 

temps

 

 

feeling chillier around 11-13 degrees

 

 

a rumble or 2 is possible but at present it looks low risk

 

back later with the rest

 

john

and we are back in the room, I mean JP Looooooooong posts

 

Matt saw your reply regards cooler weekend too

[snowrye]

hi all,hope everyones good,a lovely day today,saw some interesting clouds that shot up to the north of me,big cotton balls would best describe them,shame i was driving or i would have got a picture.take care peeps

[john pike]

hi jax

 

hope your well

 

i am back

 

that was a short post

 

i will do better tomorrow :biggrin: :biggrin:

[Jax]

missed you (aim is getting poor I think :lol:)

[john pike]

 

 

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london

 

messy so follow yellow for now

[Daniel*]

Daniel, your post appears to have had triplets! Anyone got any clear idea of how cold/wet it will be on Saturday afternoon yet? I've got a bus-conducting job and need to get the thermals out if it's going to be too bad!

It did how hilarious was that Go easy on me I'm very much a novice, by 2016 I should get the jist, I love that terminology ^ I have a basic understanding. I can read a chart, it's just putting it into words.

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, hope everyone well, weather same as yesterday, dull and grey only slight difference is a hint of mist and hardly any wind.

Something different for me today, off to Heathrow to have a meeting with some American business men before they fly off to South Africa, last time flight delays prevented it happening. Might not be on to much more this week as going away up north, sounds like I might miss some storm which will be a shame, have a good 'un and enjoy yourselves.

[Steve C]

Morning all.

 

Cloudy here, which seems to be somewhat familiar...

 

Unfortunately the updating ECM Model seems to be following GFS now in downgrading next week's settled spell.

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all, heavy rain at the moment here so a horrible drive to work today.

A lot of rain piling in from Belgium so it could be a washout for some.

Well bye bye warm spell next week. Typically the GFS is right when you don't want it to be.

Bank holiday still looks good.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Steve C]

Now ECM has finished updating, although there may not be a long settled spell, there should be plenty of usable, decent weather and, like Matt says, the Bank Holiday should be nice.

[Captain Shortwave]

Now ECM has finished updating, although there may not be a long settled spell, there should be plenty of usable, decent weather and, like Matt says, the Bank Holiday should be nice.

Indeed we can be thankful for that. Looks like very average weather ahead once you balance the couple of cold and warm days over the weekend. No washout for sure, well except maybe today 

Have a good day everyone

[Summer of 76]

Well has something developed as when this was issued earlier at 3.40am there wa no mention of heavy rain which we have just had for the past hour

 

Today:

Widespread mist and low cloud initially, and patchy fog. Then gradually becoming brighter inland, with sunny intervals developing. Scattered mainly light showers today, although an isolated sharp afternoon shower is possible. Mist and low cloud may persist along the coast. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Raining in Ippy, dull and overcast. Currently 9c and no wind. But it's lovely and fresh.

Hope you all have a good day.

[snow raven]

Morning all,

 

Bit of a boring day out there so far this morning - much like yesterday morning - dull and cloudy.  Hopefully it will brighten up later.

 

Good to see the Bank Holiday weekend is still looking settled as we have a BBQ to go to on the Sunday and hope to get out and about on the Monday. We are thinking of taking a drive to Greenwich and then getting a river cruise up into London.  Makes a change from the boring train journey I have done most days for the past 17 years anyway and it's nice to take in the sights of London as a tourist for once, rather than the usual treadmill of the working rat race!

[dallas]

Aint seen one of these for a while.............http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se

[Charltonkerry]

Just driven back from Heathrow to dirty Dartford, there where some really heavy showers around Heathrow and especially the new services (chobham?) but from there on round weather just got better and better, now in dirty Dartford, suns almost out, wind picked up a bit since this morning. Interesting meeting first time I met a Vice President of a large American company, seemed a really nice bloke, new his product and listened to my concerns and promised to incorporate them in future designs, shame some of the British manufactures don't listen, mind you as they say the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. What happened to the traffic on the m25 done the trip both ways in an hour in each direction, unbelievable, must be the tube strike?

[lassie23]

Winter isn't OVER just yet - Britain braced for two week ARCTIC BLAST due the bank holiday

A BITTER blast of air from the Arctic means that winter is not over yet - and the cold snap could last for a fortnight. Temperatures will fall to -3C (27F) by the end of the week, say forecasters, and parts of Britain will endure frosts overnight and icy winds. Met Office spokeswoman Laura Young said: "There is colder air moving down from the North from Wednesday with it reaching the South probably by Saturday. Gardeners are being warned to keep tender plants indoors until the risk of frost has passed and long-range forecasts say the cold snap could last for up to a fortnight. Netweather forecaster Jo Farrow added: "Northern Scotland will turn colder through Wednesday with temperatures of 5C by day and brushing freezing by night."Various fronts across the UK will bring further rain, over the far North, into the South once more and showers through the spine of Britain."

 

Don't worry, because this is from the Daily Express!

Edited April 29, 2014 by lassie23