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10.2C to the 29th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

With the minimum today up at 9.1C and maxima likely to be close to 18C, we will almost certainly be at 10.3C before corrections arrive (though we could reach 10.4C if maxima today reach the mid 18s).

So a likely finishing range after corrections of 9.8 to 10.4C, so anything from the joint 5th to joint 23rd warmest April on record, and the joint 2nd to joint 4th warmest first 4 months.

 

Amazing how record mild temperatures barely result in a raised eyebrow these days!

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10.2C to the 29th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

With the minimum today up at 9.1C and maxima likely to be close to 18C, we will almost certainly be at 10.3C before corrections arrive (though we could reach 10.4C if maxima today reach the mid 18s).

So a likely finishing range after corrections of 9.8 to 10.4C, so anything from the joint 5th to joint 23rd warmest April on record, and the joint 2nd to joint 4th warmest first 4 months.

 

Amazing how record mild temperatures barely result in a raised eyebrow these days!

 

The month has not seen any very warm days though - 24 / 25c etc.

 

To me it has seemed fairly average, we have just had no cold spell to offset the mild temps and result in a lower average.

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Yes.. so it has turned out very mild, 25c is highly unusual in April in Central England!

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It's a rolling average which SS posts, not the figure for the whole month.

Ah rightio.

 

This 10C+ April feels like it's crept up on us without noticing, which shows how used to such months we've become. I hope we're not about to pay for a string of mild months with a cool summer. I want the run to continue to September, then we can have a string of cold months!

Edited by AderynCoch
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The month has not seen any very warm days though - 24 / 25c etc.

 

To me it has seemed fairly average, we have just had no cold spell to offset the mild temps and result in a lower average.

 

Yes, it's been the same as winter with no warmth at all really. Mean max here was an average 11C though mean min was 2C above average. 17-18C is what you'd expect for the warmest day of the month here but it didn't even manage 16C this month.
 
It's now 4 out of 6 Aprils I've recorded a below average monthly maximum, 2012 exceptionally so, and it's the first time since the very cool April's of the 1970s that three successive April's have failed to reach 17C.
 
Looking around the country many places have failed to reach 18C this month which is very poor. Several places in SW England with very low monthly maximum's for April:
 
Liscombe: 15.1C
Camborne: 14.5C
Cardinham: 15.5C
Dunkeswell: 15.9C
Lyneham: 16.9C
 
A month to forget as far as I'm concerned. Last April was better.
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I should be able to work up some 1981-2010 normals that we could use to compare on a daily basis as we move through the month(s). Working on a table of May forecasts at this point, so maybe in the next day or two I can get this worked out on my excel program for May, and then it would be fairly easy to generate them for other months.

 

What I mean is, the average for 1st, 1st-2nd, 1st-3rd etc up to the end of the month, to compare with the running actual values.

 

This will reveal what if any change there may have been since the 1961-90 normals (which have ten years of overlap, so it's not an absolute change).

 

Meanwhile, look for the table of May forecasts to appear around midnight in the scoring thread.

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Yes, it's been the same as winter with no warmth at all really. Mean max here was an average 11C though mean min was 2C above average. 17-18C is what you'd expect for the warmest day of the month here but it didn't even manage 16C this month. It's now 4 out of 6 Aprils I've recorded a below average monthly maximum, 2012 exceptionally so, and it's the first time since the very cool April's of the 1970s that three successive April's have failed to reach 17C. Looking around the country many places have failed to reach 18C this month which is very poor. Several places in SW England with very low monthly maximum's for April: Liscombe: 15.1CCamborne: 14.5CCardinham: 15.5CDunkeswell: 15.9CLyneham: 16.9C A month to forget as far as I'm concerned. Last April was better.

I live in the Lyneham area, and have to disagree. Statistics don't always reveal the real truth. I think April was pretty good, whilst it was fairly wet overall and lacked an early heatwave, there was an abundance of fine sunny days, which were most pleasant and enjoyable. We had no cold snaps with every day reached at least 11c, and we had no air frost and 2 or 3 ground frosts. Plus we had 12 days in a row with no rain. I looked back at the last decade, and even warm Aprils had some sort of cold snap, so in fact it was a very temperate month indeed, instead of yo-yo-ing temperatures playing havoc with my internal thermostat!
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April confirmed as 10.2C on the rankings page, making it the 8th mildest on record.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

So nobody got it right this month, but AtlanticFlamethrower and TonyH were closest at 10.0C.

 

Anyway, with April at 10.2C, that makes the first 4 months of the year (7.4C) the joint 3rd mildest on record with 2002, behind just 1990 (7.5C) and 2007 (7.8C).

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April confirmed as 10.2C on the rankings page, making it the 8th mildest on record.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

So nobody got it right this month, but AtlanticFlamethrower and TonyH were closest at 10.0C.

 

Anyway, with April at 10.2C, that makes the first 4 months of the year (7.4C) the joint 3rd mildest on record with 2002, behind just 1990 (7.5C) and 2007 (7.8C).

 

Confirmed Montly Joint Winners this month AtlanticFlamethrower and TonyH.

 

Seasonal Scores - summer blizzard remains in the lead, AtlanticFlamethrower in 2nd from 18th, Gael_Force in 3rd with 8th.

 

Overall Scores - The top 2 remain the same, Reef in the lead, with The PIT in 2nd and Kentish Man in 3rd (from 4th) with Gavin in 4th (from 3rd)

 

April 2014 CET.pdf

 

April 2014 CET.xls

Edited by J10
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Spring seems to be the season showing the greatest anomalies.  Then autumn.  Summers and winters less so.  Does anyone have any suggestions why this might be?

Sorry I'm late with this but my theory is that the current amplified spring and autumn warming could be an effect of the loss of Arctic Sea Ice which has caused a great shrinkage of the Polar Cell which in turn increases spring warming and slows autumn cooling over the mid latitudes (including the UK) whilst winter and summer have seen less warming due to the Azores High being displaced towards Greenland and/or the Arctic allowing for increased Polar Incursions over the UK in those seasons albeit via an expelled and diluted Polar Vortex over the UK or France or Central Europe or Scandinavia.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Sorry I'm late with this but my theory is that the current amplified spring and autumn warming could be an effect of the loss of Arctic Sea Ice which has caused a great shrinkage of the Polar Cell which in turn increases spring warming and slows autumn cooling over the mid latitudes (including the UK) whilst winter and summer have seen less warming due to the Azores High being displaced towards Greenland and/or the Arctic allowing for increased Polar Incursions over the UK in those seasons albeit via an expelled and diluted Polar Vortex over the UK or France or Central Europe or Scandinavia.

Thanks for the reply!  Really interesting theory and one I totally agree with. 

 

I think the current well above average monthly CET is unlikely to extend past April.  I expect the summer months to come in a little above average but September, October and/or  November to have a more significant positive monthly anomaly.  We are still heading for a record CET year though I think.

 

I may have called too high for my May CET figure of 12.9, but as a fan of warm weather I would rather call too high than too low, so I can cheer every warm day and every mild night for the rest of the month!

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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