Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Roger J Smith

April 2014 CET forecasts

Recommended Posts

The long term trend is upwards though so it hasn't surprised me that 2014 has begun well above average. April began very mild especially at night and the nights look to be ending mildly too.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pjl20101

Sam according to Simon aka global warming on TWO he is estimating 10.18 rounded off to 10.2 as the estimated final figure.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the median for 2001-2014 would be pretty high after this year or the mean if you removed the warmest extremities - 2013 and 2011.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9.5C will do me nicely. I think will be more like 9.8C though . Sunny Sheffield at 9.6C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pjl20101

Seems ae though the Hadley centre haven't updated their model, hope it gets sorted asap.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why do we quote the 61-90 average when it would be more reasonable to quote the say 81-2010 average or does that 0.6 c make it look better from a warming perspective!!!!!!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why do we quote the 61-90 average when it would be more reasonable to quote the say 81-2010 average or does that 0.6 c make it look better from a warming perspective!!!!!!

 

I quite agree. The 61-90 average really has little relevance to todays temps. At the very least the 71-2000 averages should be used.

Edited by GRHinPorts
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why do we quote the 61-90 average when it would be more reasonable to quote the say 81-2010 average or does that 0.6 c make it look better from a warming perspective!!!!!!

 

 

LOL, yes I've mentioned that to him many times yet he persists.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Summer Sun is just quoting from the CET page, as has been explained before.

If people are so bothered about the averages used, then download the CET data, calculate the anomalies from whatever 30 year period they like and post them up here!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL, yes I've mentioned that to him many times yet he persists.

 

I said this to you before if you or any one else has a link for the daily CET averages for a specific period then post a link for us to use other wise I shall continue to use the 61 to 90 average as others do if its good enough for the met office and World Met. Organisation its good enough for me

 

From the met office

 

Note that anomalies quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation).

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pjl20101

Global warming on TWO has revised his guess down to 10.03 as the final figure implying 10 as the final figure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why do we quote the 61-90 average when it would be more reasonable to quote the say 81-2010 average or does that 0.6 c make it look better from a warming perspective!!!!!!

I don't quite know why we use 61-90 average rather than, say, 31-60 or 1779 to 2014 average, but I think it's good to always refer to the same average rather than moving the it every 10 years. I don't see why the 81-10 average is seen as more 'relevant' just because it's more likely to return a month close to normal rather than well above. A 10.1c April CET is a 10.1c April CET. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pjl20101

10.1c to the 27th 2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Its definitely going to be the warmest April for 3 years Gavin, even I said something of a warm dry April on gavsweathervids.com which is the site owned by Gavin partridge back in January and have been proved right. Chuffed with myself.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're now at 10.2C for the month, which is a +2.4 anomaly on the period 1961-1990.

 

Looking like I didn't guess high enough again despite choosing a warm 9.7C!

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.2C would put us in the top 10 warmest Aprils in the CET series.

 

If April finishes on 10.2C May would only have to finish on 12.9C to record the warmest Spring on record. In itself it would be nothing unusual except the warmest was 2011, 2007 was in 3rd and 2009 was in 12th. Four top 12 springs in five years.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a minimum today of 7.7C, and maxima around the mid 15s, we should remain on 10.2C on tomorrows update. 

The final day of the month looks like averaging around the low 11s, which means a likely finish of 10.2C, with a small chance of reaching 10.3C.

 

After corrections, anything from 9.7C to 10.3C is possible, which is from joint 27th to joint 6th mildest on record.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.2C would put us in the top 10 warmest Aprils in the CET series.

 

If April finishes on 10.2C May would only have to finish on 12.9C to record the warmest Spring on record. In itself it would be nothing unusual except the warmest was 2011, 2007 was in 3rd and 2009 was in 12th. Four top 12 springs in five years.

 

Spring seems to be the season showing the greatest anomalies.  Then autumn.  Summers and winters less so.  Does anyone have any suggestions why this might be?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.2C would put us in the top 10 warmest Aprils in the CET series. If April finishes on 10.2C May would only have to finish on 12.9C to record the warmest Spring on record. In itself it would be nothing unusual except the warmest was 2011, 2007 was in 3rd and 2009 was in 12th. Four top 12 springs in five years.

Yes, last year is quite a contrast in comparison. Let's hope summer 2013 doesn't also prove to be the odd one out!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 1981-2010 average is 8.5C, as posted by Roger at the very beginning of this thread.

 

Not that hard to find really!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Temperatures into heatwave territory and no rain

    Some parts of the UK could qualify for heatwave conditions later this week and it's not the usual suspects. No rain as water levels decline and how are the evening skies for LanuchAmerica viewing? Watch the video here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    High pressure in the driving seat until at least the end of May

    High pressure continues to dominate our weather until at least early next week, with most staying dry and fine. The warm conditions will spread north, and the highest temperatures will transfer to the west as the high moves east and eventually over Scandinavia. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...