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Pretty amazed by the CET as it hasn't been that warm at all here, nights pretty cool too, shows you how cool a month on average April is as if it was June it wouldn't be called a warm month so far.

 

Temps so far in April in Coventry which is a big city have been 13C to 15C with 16C being the highest, it was much warmer in late March with 20C being reached, felt fresher past week too.

Edited by Eugene
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I too am surprised how high the CET value currently is. Temperatures whilst never particularly high, have been consistently 2-3 degrees above average in central/se England, the lack of cloudy wet weather has helped and also the lack of a northerly airstream.. where have the cold synoptics disappeared too.

 

Here it has felt very average so far and we are now experiencing some cold nights.

 

Despite high pressure directly overhead and wall to wall blue sky and sunshine we maxed out at 15 degrees, respectable, but we were seeing high teens in late March under similar synoptics. Alas the current high has been sourced from a cold direction.

 

This is certainly not feeling like April 07 or 11.

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I too am surprised how high the CET value currently is. Temperatures whilst never particularly high, have been consistently 2-3 degrees above average in central/se England, the lack of cloudy wet weather has helped and also the lack of a northerly airstream.. where have the cold synoptics disappeared too. Here it has felt very average so far and we are now experiencing some cold nights. Despite high pressure directly overhead and wall to wall blue sky and sunshine we maxed out at 15 degrees, respectable, but we were seeing high teens in late March under similar synoptics. Alas the current high has been sourced from a cold direction. This is certainly not feeling like April 07 or 11.

Neither to me. Given how long this period of above average temperatures has lasted since July with odd breaks or continuously since the start of December, I feel that a below average month will turn up and no doubt it will occur during one of the summer months.
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Neither to me.Given how long this period of above average temperatures has lasted since July with odd breaks or continuously since the start of December, I feel that a below average month will turn up and no doubt it will occur during one of the summer months.

 

Thats my worry at the moment too. Oh well there is nothing that can be done about it so might as well enjoy the blue skies while they last.

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Neither to me.Given how long this period of above average temperatures has lasted since July with odd breaks or continuously since the start of December, I feel that a below average month will turn up and no doubt it will occur during one of the summer months.

 

On the other hand we could be in a prolonged period of above average temperatures and end up with the hottest year on record

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On the other hand we could be in a prolonged period of above average temperatures and end up with the hottest year on record

 

Could be the case but if the prolonged period of above average temperatures was to last until the end of the year it would have lasted 18 months which would be exceptional.  That said, it could well remain above average until Autumn at least.  The other thing to bear in mind are the potential effects of El Nino later in the year.

Edited by Don
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Min today of 2.9C, while maxima look like reaching the low 12s, so a decrease to 9.8C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

9.7C to the 19th (7.0)

9.7C to the 20th (9.8]

9.8C to the 21st (11.7)

9.8C to the 22nd (10.8]

9.9C to the 23rd (11.1)

9.9C to the 24th (10.4)

9.9C to the 25th (10.0)

 

EDIT: Presuming an April CET after corrections of between 8.7C and 10.5C, the first 4 months of this year will average between the joint 2nd to the 8th mildest on record.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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We require the final figure to be 9.5c or more to make it 5 consecutive >1c above average months. When was the last time that happened. Anyone?

Sep 2011 to Jan 2012. Not all that long ago!

 

Five months in a row 1C below the relevant recent 10 year average and you have to go back to 1917 though.

Edited by reef
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With a min of 8.9C and maxima likely to reach the low 14s, an increase to 9.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.0C to the 23rd (11.0)

10.0C to the 24th (10.7)

10.0C to the 25th (10.9)

10.0C to the 26th (9.6)

10.0C to the 27th (10.3)

10.0C to the 28th (9.8]

10.0C to the 29th (10.4)

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With a min of 8.9C and maxima likely to reach the low 14s, an increase to 9.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.0C to the 23rd (11.0)

10.0C to the 24th (10.7)

10.0C to the 25th (10.9)

10.0C to the 26th (9.6)

10.0C to the 27th (10.3)

10.0C to the 28th (9.8]

10.0C to the 29th (10.4)

 

Yet another warm month.  Quite different to this time last year lol!

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On the other hand we could be in a prolonged period of above average temperatures and end up with the hottest year on record

2011 was the 2nd warmest year on record but all 3 summer months were below the 1961-90 averages. We don't know but the statistical elastic band says to me we must be stretching it a bit now.
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