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With a minimum today of 7.5C, and maxima likely to reach about 17.5C (mean ~12.5, record high mean = 13.9C), we should see an increase to 11.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

12.5C to the 3rd (13.5) [record high = 15.0]

12.4C to the 4th (12.1) [record high = 15.6]

11.9C to the 5th (10.0) 

12.3C to the 6th (14.0) [record high = 15.1 in 2011, 2nd highest just 13.2]

12.6C to the 7th (14.4) [record high = 14.7]

12.5C to the 8th (11.9)

12.0C to the 9th (8.1)

 

The first to the 8th of April, according to the GFS, would be the warmest such period on record, by 0.3C (over 1926). It would be about 9C warmer than 2013 for that period too.

 

 

When was the last time we had a double digit day this early?

 

It's not unusual SB, 39 previous Aprils have recorded double digit means on the first day. I think there are only 2 days that haven't recorded a double digit mean in the whole year, January 8th and 28th.

 

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Down to 10.9c to the 2nd

 

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

The maxima were way below what the GFS predicted yesterday, 13.0C compared to a forecast 17.5C. Could be a similar situation today if the northern CET areas remain cool.

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The maxima were way below what the GFS predicted yesterday, 13.0C compared to a forecast 17.5C. Could be a similar situation today if the northern CET areas remain cool.

 

Yeah, it was surprisingly cool here yesterday with maxima around 11/12C. It's been a touch milder today, but not by much. The pollution levels and accompanying haze probably tempered maxima somewhat.

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With a minimum today of 9.8C and maxima up around the mid 12s, we should be on either 10.9C or 11.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.5C to the 8th (7.6)

10.5C to the 9th (9.8]

10.4C to the 10th (9.4)

10.2C to the 11th (8.3)

10.0C to the 12th (8.7)

9.9C to the 13th (8.5)

9.9C to the 14th (9.4)

 

Below average minima helping to gradually lower the CET over the coming week.

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Gradual fall for the first part of the coming week then remaining static, with perhaps a slight rise towards the Easter Weekend. Looking likely that we will see the 5th consecutive month of 1c or more above the 81-10 average.

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Gradual fall for the first part of the coming week then remaining static, with perhaps a slight rise towards the Easter Weekend. Looking likely that we will see the 5th consecutive month of 1c or more above the 81-10 average.

 

Yep, what a contrast to this time last year!!

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Yep, what a contrast to this time last year!!

 

Indeed to April 12th 2013 were only on 4.5c will be more than double that to the same date this year when the temperature is in later this morning

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Almost half-way into the month, and 67 forecasts are below the actual value, one is above.

 

By the looks of the charts, the decline of the last week should flatten out soon and end points from the GFS appear to place the outcome between 8.8 and 9.8 ... there are few days showing up that would fall outside the rather narrow range of 7 to 12 for daily means. Given that the days 15-16 output that looks rather cold will probably not verify based on similar fading scenarios already negated, I would say the most likely finishing area is 9.3 to 9.8 at this point. At any rate, within a few days there will be more than one person looking for a warming trend. :)

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