April 2014 CET forecasts

[DR(S)NO]

7.9 c please

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the April CET in blue, the 10 year mean in orange/red and the linear trend in black.

 

 

The correlation between the March and April CET is +0.31, which is about average for consecutive monthly CET pairs.

 

March looks like finishing somewhere between 7.0 and 7.7C. The average April following Marches in that range is 8.5C.

 

The current run without an April below 7C is the 2nd longest on record at 24 years. The longest is 25 years, from 1714 to 1738, and the 3rd longest (excluding the first few decades) is 18 years,from 1861 to 1878.

The current run with the 10 year mean above 9C is also the 2nd longest on record at 5 years. The longest is 7 years, from 1946 to 1952. and the 3rd longest is 3 years from 1870 to 1872.

The current run with the 10 year mean above 8C is, once more, the 2nd longest on record at 21 years. The longest is 29 years, from 1942 to 1970, with the 3rd longest being 16 years, from 1865 to 1880.

[geoffw]

9.6 please

[stewfox]

The current run without an April below 7C is the 2nd longest on record at 24 years. The longest is 25 years, from 1714 to 1738, and the 3rd longest (excluding the first few decades) is 18 years,from 1861 to 1878.

 

 

6.9c for me

[snowsummer]

7.9 plz

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dominated by easterly winds, chillyish April at 7.9C

[Captain Shortwave]

going for average but edging slightly above, 9.2C

April will be one to forget for areas near the north sea. But the west will be warmer than average with east/south easterlies dominating. Also would say the month will be drier than average for most away from the south west.

[Dancerwithwings]

Cool 8.0c

A chilly Cheers!

Edited March 28, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

Some of these guesses from mildies are way to optimistic IMO, I will stop short of saying its going to be well below average because you can hit Max's of nearly 25c near the end and its a month that can get skewed, first half will be around 2c or maybe even more below average, balanced out late on.

 

 

6.9c  please.

[March Blizzard]

With the lowest temp of the season being -7 ish and englands lowest of -6.8 on Monday it is easily possible for april to take the lowest temp since the lowest april temp is -15 deg and it is not an impossability that april could take the lowest cet of the extended winter....that would be some record in these times of extremes!

I wonder if April has ever recorded a lower minima than the preceding 4, even 5, months?Maybe 1989? Like you said, it's entirely possible, especially considering the poor efforts of the last 4 months.

[stewfox]

6.9c for me

 

I would like to change this to 8.4c please 

[damianslaw]

Going with a below average 8.1 degrees. Weak atlantic influence throughout with winds from a NW-SE axis, especially during the middle part of the month. A variable month with fronts at times becoming unstuck over the country but never overly wet. A cloudy month in the east, sunnier in the west.

 

Last April was quite cold and 2012, this one should feel more springlike.

[sundog]

9.4c for me please.

[syed2878]

well i think april is going to be a mix month. So i'm going for 7.8c.

[Methuselah]

A slightly warm 9.5C, please.

[The PIT]

Going for 9.5C a very mild month.

[BARRY]

8.5c bang average

[Stargazer]

Rather a mild one for me - 9.7.

[thetonynator]

9.5 please. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'll be aiming high every month this year as I believe 2014 will break records.

 

April CET 9.7

[Norrance]

9.3C please.

[coram]

8.8 please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

10.0 C

[Milhouse]

8.9c please

[Midlands Ice Age]

My guess for April is 9.1C

 

MIA