South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/03/14

[Daniel*]

Oh jolly welcome back Tam - and hooray, CS! that grumpy sod will not be missed

Some clearance of the PPN to our south which is disappointing - the night is still young.

hope that mass of PPN up north heads south, 2.9c cooling of

[Lauren]

Surprise rumbles and hail today which is always nice. The one thing you can't deny about April is it's full of surprises!

[Snowangel-MK]

Surprise rumbles and hail today which is always nice. The one thing you can't deny about April is it's full of surprises!

I'm surprised it's April ......I thought it was still March !! :-)Clocks change on Sunday Edited March 26, 2014 by MKsnowangel

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

cold tonight

 

later on as we go through the night the showers more likely turn more wintry

 

just a case of watching the radar and see what happens

 

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tomorrow

 

 

winds turn more easterly and will be a shade stronger

 

rainfall

 

any early showers may be wintry

 

however by lunchtime on

 

more persistant rain moves in

 

some areas to the very far south east may miss these altogether

 

by late pm

 

showers becoming light and patchy and will clear before night

 

temps

 

starts cold

 

but will warm up during the day

 

should hit around 8-10 degrees

 

but will feel cold in the wind

 

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tomorrow night

 

a breezy east-south east flow

 

rainfall

 

looks like some showers around but more to the north of the region

 

temps

 

warmer where it rains-around 5-6 degrees

 

low of 2-4 degrees where it stays dry

 

a local frost is possible very very low confidence on that

 

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friday

 

a still breezy and cold east-south east flow

 

rain

 

sunshine and showers today

 

maybe some heavy bursts north of our region

 

temps

 

around 10-13 degrees

 

some of the late pm showers may turn thundery with hail too

 

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friday night

 

 

a breezy south easterly flow

 

rainfall

 

should be dry

 

temps

 

not cold around 6-7 degrees

 

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saturday

 

still a breezy south east flow

 

rainfall

 

looks dry

 

temps

 

 

between 13-15 degrees

 

the north and east of our region may stay a shade lower temp wise due to slow moving cloud

 

be back later with the rest

 

john

[Lauren]

I'm surprised it's April ......I thought it was still March !! :-)

Clocks change on Sunday

image.jpg

 

[Biggin]

the snow depth cup can always be wheeled out of spring/summer hibernation....the thread is just on temporary lock, so just say the word and.......

Nope All I had is rain..... Leave it be...

[Crepuscular Ray]

Apart from an hour or so of intermittent heavy, blustery rain early-mid afternoon, bright and sunny most of the day here.

[Alixzandra]

Evening all, been busy managing splitting my time between the family stuff, work deadlines, where everything seems to be a priority and college, I'm not sure sometimes (like most of us) how I seem to fit it all in. Multi-tasking is being tested to the extreme! Icy cold sleet here today, but not an awful lot more to report weather wise. Need to be in London in the morn for an all day conference I'd rather not be at, but ho hum, what funders want, funders get.

All the very best all and may you all be granted the positive energy to counter your respective 'battles' whatever they may be. Alix x

[HammerJack]

Hello everyone - hope you are all well

 

Things are changing for me at the moment with a lot going on, and rather too much to worry and be anxious about at home.  One outside consequences of that change is getting Shadow my cat used to being in the car and driving distances as I try to get a new catering business set up away from Hastings, which makes the coming months very uncertain where it will lead, and where it will take me in the process *hopefully to better things and better days*

 

A crate was purchased from Pets at Home with some grateful help for this purpose - it is really more of a dog crate than one for cats but I want Shadow to have plenty of room and be able to see me clearly in the car so I can talk to him. I don't have long at all to get him used to the car (he has only been in it once or twice in years just a mile or so to the vets) - his first proper journey of almost two hours will be at the weekend - but he has already taken to the crate itself and at least made himself at home in it on terra firma here

 

009.JPG

 

In terms of all things weather, well we have this very belated colder snap at the moment with hints of wintry precipitation scattered around the region as some members have reported today. Its a far far cry from the bitterly cold conditions of last March and not amounting to anything and its wintry extent is some sleet and hail (and maybe a few wet snow flakes for some of us to lay claim to at least witnessing something resembling the real white stuff falling from the sky this 'winter', and there is a chance of more of this during the evening. But I have no excited plans to scan the darkness for scenes like this

 

034.JPG

 

 

With time overnight the associated upper cold pool that is bringing the current conditions will move away further westwards and a gradual warming up process begins with an extra degree or so per day till we get to the weekend and quite obviously warmer air moves in from the south east.

 

The current synoptic pattern is one that has been completely AWOL for a very very long time, as finally the dying winter time polar vortex transfers it bulk of energy into Siberia and high pressure appearing to the north of the UK to replace several months of endless lows

 

At the same time, a cut off area of low pressure is set to be rotating in the atlantic to the north of the Azores area and the computer models are trying to work out how this aligns itself against the high pressure block to the north and how much influence it has over our region and other southern parts of the country. There is certainly enough push from the south around this low pressure system to the south west to advect something of a tropical continental influence into our region as the current relatively colder north easterly airstream veers south easterly in the coming days

 

Good agreement is shown by ECM ensemble members through to the early part of next week to maintain the fairly warm Spring conditions which begin this weekend, but more especially on Sunday.

The slight uncertainty of the tilt of the low pressure is evident in the ensemble maps, but overall it looks as though the wind will maintain a flow rather east of south and showery rain bands that come around the trough to the south west will be restricted further west of our region. The odd shower is possible, but it looks generally dry and quite pleasant in any sunshine with temperatures considerably higher than at present. Those of us on east facing coasts will most likely to be that bit cooler with the wind coming off the sea, but with the wind blowing from the nearby continent rather than down the North Sea itself cloud amounts shouldn't, hopefully, be too large.

.

Beyond this there is some uncertainty, and possibilities are that something of a breakdown to cooler and slightly more unsettled conditions may occur as pressure finally falls from the south west - but this could well be more apparent west of our region once more.  I think that the -NAO conditions that are currently setting up could well be quite a feature during April. This could give a variety of weather for us with warmer sunnier weather alternating with chilly cloudier days from the North Sea and also with the threat of troughs trying to come up from the south west to give showers.

 

Quite a common mixture of weather for the time of year - April is characteristically capricious. But then that is her perogative to keep changing her mind  

lovely post Tamarma, glad to see you posting again. Hope all the private stuff is okay now. The same to you Tom. I would of replied to your post, but Tamaras essay ;-) deserved the reply.

Weather today.., hummmm.. Pretty cold and unpleasant . Goodnight guys

[john pike]

sunday

 

a weak south-south east flow

 

temps

 

 

around 15-16 degrees

 

now east and north east and south costal regions may have temps slightly lower due to cloudcover

 

looks dry

 

most places should see some sun throughout the day

 

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monday

 

a breezy southerly flow

 

temps

 

around 14 degrees

 

however expect some heavy and potentially thundery downpours

 

regards

 

john

[MP-R]

Had 3mm of rain here in Egham this afternoon - moved through pretty quickly but was mostly light/moderate so wasn't aware of any sleet or anything else falling. Clear and chilly now.

[Daniel*]

How frustrating when the conditions are favourable for something wintery the ppn is either far too north or west. Time to call it a day, there are more important things to be done, nighty night

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Jax]

Evening all

 

Finally got round to getting back online (busy evening doing other stuff and being out and about), glad to see Tams is back with us and another fine sequence of posts from JP too, I am liking the fact we appear to be dropping this brief cold spell and moving back to something milder again (sorry cold lovers, I have waited and waited for cold this Winter and now moved my hopes to Spring and Summer)

 

Had a few showers here, nothing much mind, does still feel nippy out and have not been able to apply the screen cover to the car due to the breeze and the showers, I fear I shall have to set ouot earlier in the morning armed with a scraper and can of de-icer.

[Steve C]

 

 

monday

 

 

a breezy southerly flow

 

temps

 

 

 

around 14 degrees

 

however expect some heavy and potentially thundery downpours

 

regards

 

john

 

Yes, I was wondering about the thunder potential next week earlier as well. I briefly looked at CAPE charts etc. but not for too long. I guess it'd be good to get the warmish weather in first.

[Steve C]

Evening all

 

Finally got round to getting back online (busy evening doing other stuff and being out and about), glad to see Tams is back with us and another fine sequence of posts from JP too, I am liking the fact we appear to be dropping this brief cold spell and moving back to something milder again (sorry cold lovers, I have waited and waited for cold this Winter and now moved my hopes to Spring and Summer)

 

Had a few showers here, nothing much mind, does still feel nippy out and have not been able to apply the screen cover to the car due to the breeze and the showers, I fear I shall have to set ouot earlier in the morning armed with a scraper and can of de-icer.

 

Unfortunately it does look like it'll cool down after midweek though, as you'd expect in Spring, but not to the extent of the cold we had in early April last year imho (as a recent poster has implied on the MDT) - when you see certain posters there, you know exactly what the theme of their posts will be...

[Jax]

Unfortunately it does look like it'll cool down after midweek though, as you'd expect in Spring, but not to the extent of the cold we had in early April last year imho (as a recent poster has implied on the MDT) - when you see certain posters there, you know exactly what the theme of their posts will be...

I would not like a long drawn out cold spell like last year (did not like then TBH), I like my seasons to play ball

 

I have weaned myself off most of the heating but as I gain age I find my joints due to past injuries no longer like the cold as much as I did, not even that old really, just a broken body that now-a-days likes it dry and warm rather than cold and damp it seems. *waves walking stick*

[john pike]

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

 

at present i am watching this

 

if this goes neutral or negative i wouldnt rule out a cold blast in april

 

however  its guesswork at present

 

at least the weekend looks useable

[Jax]

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

 

at present i am watching this

 

if this goes neutral or negative i wouldnt rule out a cold blast in april

 

however  its guesswork at present

 

at least the weekend looks useable

can you fix it so it does not? pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaassssseeeeeeee?

[john pike]

hi jax

 

i will see what i can do

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

safe to say fi is on the 1st there

 

wind

 

breezy but nothing big

 

think gfs does its windstorm in fi again

 

rain

 

 

dry to the 3rd barring the odd shower

 

the 3rd gfs goes mad

 

sticking again to my fax charts for now until a bit more agreement shows

[Jax]

hi jax

 

i will see what i can do

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

safe to say fi is on the 1st there

 

wind

 

breezy but nothing big

 

think gfs does its windstorm in fi again

 

rain

 

 

dry to the 3rd barring the odd shower

 

the 3rd gfs goes mad

 

sticking again to my fax charts for now until a bit more agreement shows

Da Man

[Captain Shortwave]

Personally I'm seeing April as being an average month temperature wise, but drier than average. I think easterly winds will be common this month, but no real arctic blast with heights persisting to our north/north east and low pressure remaining to our south west. Just a few weak fronts, sunshine and temperatures will probably be dependent on how cloudy the flow is.

 

Shame this set up didn't happen either during mid-winter (we would be currently being buried in snow), or summer where we could see a lot of warm/hot sunny weather and some thundery downpours due to that low south west of the UK. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers

[lassie23]

120 DAYS OF HOT SUNSHINE: Britain set to bask in longest summer since 1910 say forecasters THE WHOLE of Britain is about to roast in a scorching FOUR-MONTH super-summer with temperatures hitting 100F within weeks experts say. THE ENTIRE COUNTRY is heading for the hottest summer in HISTORY - one that will put even last year's sizzling heatwave in the shade.

Early long-range weather models predict scorching temperatures and wall-to-wall sunshine will arrive in May and hold out until the end of August.

Forecasters said late spring will “light the blue touch paper†for the mercury to rocket with the potential for summer weather records dating back to 1910 to tumble.

 

"We are looking at an extreme summer. May is set to light the blue touch paper for some very decent weather

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services"

 

What is Jonathan Powell an expert in, exactly? It isn't meteorolgy that's for sure!

 

So it's official, this summer will suck, as the exact opposite of what the Daily Express forecasts, always happens!

Edited March 27, 2014 by lassie23

[Crepuscular Ray]

120 DAYS OF HOT SUNSHINE: Britain set to bask in longest summer since 1910 say forecasters THE WHOLE of Britain is about to roast in a scorching FOUR-MONTH super-summer with temperatures hitting 100F within weeks experts say. THE ENTIRE COUNTRY is heading for the hottest summer in HISTORY - one that will put even last year's sizzling heatwave in the shade.

Early long-range weather models predict scorching temperatures and wall-to-wall sunshine will arrive in May and hold out until the end of August.

Forecasters said late spring will “light the blue touch paper†for the mercury to rocket with the potential for summer weather records dating back to 1910 to tumble.

 

"We are looking at an extreme summer. May is set to light the blue touch paper for some very decent weather

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services"

 

What is Jonathan Powell and expert in, exactly? It isn't meteorolgy that's for sure!

 

So it's official, this summer will suck, as the exact opposite of what the Daily Express forecasts, always happens!

Don't they ever learn?????????

[lassie23]

Don't they ever learn?????????

After their 100 days of snow failed to materialize this winter, you would think that they would keep it zipped, but no, instead they continue to print s...! They also claim that their winter forecast was correct, they just got the precipitation wrong and it was rain instead of snow. What the....?