South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 01/03/14

[Coopsy]

"Just been to shop and brrrr!Its turned a bit chilly after another lovely early spring day. Had a strange sort of day; Nipper lost her favourite stuffed doggy in town....the loo has a leak...the tooth brush holder smashed in the basin...and then the real brahmer; my niece dropped her bank card between the floor boards. If she'd aimed it she couldn't have done that.

If anyone is considering renting a place...don't use JSM Agents. They are rubbish. We've found all sorts of things wrong that should have been put right before anyone moved in. Very bad practice.

Have a good evening all.

Have you got a cool wind coming in off the sea? It could be the warmest summer day and I would go to Felixstowe and the wind used to freeze me. Gotta love Suffolk for that.

 

I was going to say you've had your 3 bad lucks but seems you got a lot more than that. Hopefully tomorrow goes better for you.

 

Have a good evening too.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Liking how warm the north sea actually is for this time of year. The anomalies nearly in the 'red' territory! Showing at least 3.5-4c above average! 

Cant be bad at least if we want good stuff to come our way. English Channel temps are also quite a way above the norm

[Lauren]

Hi Lauren, now you mention it, it does a bit  but I can assure you it is definitely metallic and odorless. Unfortunately the route I take, you do have to mind your step, annoys me, that people don't pick up after their dogs. 

 

Hopefully warmer again by the weekend as the winds turn more westerly  

 

 

See I wasn't thinking it looked like poo at all

 

Despite the warmer weather the night definitely still has a bite to it. You know, I'm not totally convinced we've seen the last of wintry weather.

[Soaring Hawk]

"Just been to shop and brrrr!Its turned a bit chilly after another lovely early spring day. Had a strange sort of day; Nipper lost her favourite stuffed doggy in town....the loo has a leak...the tooth brush holder smashed in the basin...and then the real brahmer; my niece dropped her bank card between the floor boards. If she'd aimed it she couldn't have done that.

If anyone is considering renting a place...don't use JSM Agents. They are rubbish. We've found all sorts of things wrong that should have been put right before anyone moved in. Very bad practice.

Have a good evening all.

 

Goodness, that's a lot of bad luck in one go.  Hopefully that's your lot for the next few months or so!  Your niece dropping her bank card between the floor boards reminded me of an advert on TV about a year ago I think.  Can't remember which bank/credit card company it was but one of the calamities was a little girl deliberately posting a card between the floor boards, then giving the most wonderfully funny *oh whoops, let's hope no-one actually saw that happen* Devil child expression.  Always made me laugh.  

 

The beautiful morning gave way to cloud and an increasingly north east wind.  Temperature of 9^o C when I arrived home felt far colder with that biting wind penetrating my clothing.  

[Soaring Hawk]

Ahhh! Phallic in nature?

 

Phallic jobbies?  Simply had to go back and look at it again.  Completely missed both suggested look alikes the first time I viewed the photo.  I'll get me coat on the way out.....

[Jax]

Evening all

 

Not been out since I got home (well had no need), nice and warm in  is all I can say

 

K, I thought you was yet to find a place in Naarwich and make the move, have you moved already?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Bright and sunny again, but with a coolish wind making it not really feel the 14c showing on the temp thingy and definitely not as nice as yesterday's glorious spring day. Got to 16.2c here, but was very pleasant anyway as I had things to do in the garden and any warmer would have seen me melt. Walked up to the village to watch the rugby at the pub as England - Wales games need to be accompanied by Harveys. But not Malibu, poor Fluffy. Some rather bad news on the doggie front from the stun12 household with Jupiter, son of matriarch Skye. He has been having some mild arthritic problems with a front leg, though it hasn't stopped him from being a loony in the woods, so the vet has been giving him a course of injections and Metacam, a drug which reduces infalmmation. Anyway, just as an aside, Mrs stun12 pointed out a small lump on his back leg which the vet looked at and said she didn't think was anything, but they'd take a small sample for analysis. Turns out to be a mast cell tumour, so we're all in a bit of shock here. They're going to remove it on Thursday and do a more thorough biopsy as there seem to be 3 different levels of severity. It's not uncommon for retrievers, but of course you never think it's going to happen to you (or your dog).

 

The whole forum thing passed me by too. Probably me not listening again, well that's what mrs stun12 says anyway.

 

It was indeed me, Kentish CZ, who foolishly put £50 on Champagne something or another at Cheltenham. I stuck to what I said at the time that I would immediately take the winnings out of the bookie account and spend it, which I did, never to return Paddy Power again ! Hmm, I thought, a tip on the geegees from a bookie, even if it was just a coincidence brought up by talking about sparkling wine etc with Tams and a couple of others.  'Ave it.

 

 

Ah Mr.Stun12, thought it was you! Here's your favourite little grey fella, winning that race. If it's a problem Ali, delete the video, I understand but thought it might be nice to relive the moment again.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_8fYzdy-Wug

 

Btw Stun, my cheque still hasnt arrived in the post yet, I know you live in the middle of nowhere but come on, a year!  We have clients like you who promise that a cheque is in the post, and we're still 

 

And Champagne Fever is running again tomorrow at Cheltenham, in the 2.05. He must have a favourite's chance but it's quite a trappy race.   

 

It's amazing to think a year has gone by already and of course some members on the South Coast were about to receive a snowfest bonanza! 

 

Anyway, like here, the weather for Cheltenham looks set fair for the week, with temps in the mid to high fifties, in old money. If any of you are having a flutter, hope it's profitable week for you!  

 

Tom.

Edited March 10, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[claret047]

Good Evening everyone,

 

The weather seems somewhat colder this evening. On my ten minute walk home from the bus stop I felt chilly. The clouds were scooting under the moon at quite a pace.

 

Off topic it is not just Charlton K and myself that get into trouble with their other halves. My son is in the dog house after what happened yesterday.

 

His partner went to a car boot sale yesterday morning and he decided to do a bit of tidying up whilst she was out. They had company the night before and sat outside using a heater they had recently acquired. Yesterday morning he emptied the ashes from the heater into one of his dustbins and went indoors to get on with some of the housework to gain a few brownie points. A few minutes later he heard a fairly large bang followed by an urgent knock on the window by a neighbour to tell him that two of his bins were alight as well as two fencing panels.

 

His three year old was highly excited as his hero is Elvis and so he kept saying call Sam. The fire brigade were called by a neighbour and Harvey enjoyed the visit. but my son has learnt an important lesson the hard way and will not be repeating it in a hurry.

 

See link below

 

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Huntingdon-St-Ives-St-Neots/Fence-blaze-next-to-site-of-Huntingdon-forensic-laboratory-20140309162441.htm

 

Kind regards

 

Dave

Edited March 10, 2014 by claret047

[Crepuscular Ray]

Phallic jobbies?  Simply had to go back and look at it again.  Completely missed both suggested look alikes the first time I viewed the photo.  I'll get me coat on the way out.....

You're not the only one. Looked like a bit of broken horse shoe to me.

 

Nasty, biting wind outside.

Edited March 10, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[Jax]

did not look like anything poo or phallic to me I must admit

[Bluebreezer54]

Summer was great this year wasn't it? It lasted longer than most years, (ONE DAY). Roll on winter, let's hope it's not a repeat of the last one.

 

The point you are trying to  make is totally lost on me.

[Jax]

Beginning to wish I'd never picked it up!

 

7c and cloudy here.

sometimes the most obscure object can turn out to be the mos tinteresting (and valuable)

[Steve C]

Evening all.

 

Yes, cloudy and chilly here now, although we had sunshine until well into the afternoon.

 

Hopefully only tomorrow will be cloudy and the rest of the week fine.  

 

With the talk of a possible cool down next week (and some cool / cold weather is almost inevitable, given that it's only early/mid March and the sight of snowflakes this Spring wouldn't be particularly long odds) it has made me think...

 

Would I rather we had 2012, with the very pleasant early Spring, followed by the mediocre late Spring and quite dire Summer, or 2013, with its cold Spring but very nice Summer? I've decided I'd rather it was like last year for me, definitely. My ideal would be a warm Spring and Summer, with spells of decent convection for big showers / storms and long dry spells to make outdoor activities easy, but know that I'd almost certainly be disappointed, if I expected that to happen.

 

I'm not generally interested in seeing cold weather now, as my preferred snow type is one which involves it lying for a couple of days at least and I know the chances rapidly diminish now. I really don't like sleet, or snow which falls and immediately melts / thaws when it stops. Late last March was quite a nice surprise for me!

 

If we get some sort of northerly, I'd probably be looking for big convective showers, rather than snow, unless there was a chance it'd lie.

[Snowangel-MK]

Slightly off topic but as the lovely weather and the drier ground conditions are more favourable for long dog walks I thought I'd pass this information on - Salcey Forest is somewhere I often walk so hopefully it will prevent any K9's coming into unnecessary contact with this .....

 

 

Milton Keynes Veterinary Group

 

***Confirmed case of 'Alabama Rot' in Northamptonshire***

Towcester Veterinary Centre have had a confirmed case of 'Alabama Rot'

The dog in question lived and was walked almost exclusively in Salcey Forest, Northamptonshire. The Forestry Commission have been contacted and made aware of the case and are putting signs up warning dog owners immediately.

file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Admin/My%20Documents/Downloads/Alabama%20Rot%202014_03_10_for%20vets.pdf

Edited March 10, 2014 by MKsnowangel

[Jax]

 

Slightly off topic but as the lovely weather and the drier ground conditions are more favourable for long dog walks I thought I'd pass this information on - Salcey Forest is somewhere I often walk so hopefully it will prevent any K9's coming into unnecessary contact with this .....

 

 

Milton Keynes Veterinary Group

 

***Confirmed case of 'Alabama Rot' in Northamptonshire***

Towcester Veterinary Centre have had a confirmed case of 'Alabama Rot'

The dog in question lived and was walked almost exclusively in Salcey Forest, Northamptonshire. The Forestry Commission have been contacted and made aware of the case and are putting signs up warning dog owners immediately.

file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Admin/My%20Documents/Downloads/Alabama%20Rot%202014_03_10_for%20vets.pdf

 

Well worth getting the warning out there

[Tamara]

Goodness, that's a lot of bad luck in one go.  Hopefully that's your lot for the next few months or so!  Your niece dropping her bank card between the floor boards reminded me of an advert on TV about a year ago I think.  Can't remember which bank/credit card company it was but one of the calamities was a little girl deliberately posting a card between the floor boards, then giving the most wonderfully funny *oh whoops, let's hope no-one actually saw that happen* Devil child expression.  Always made me laugh.  

 

The beautiful morning gave way to cloud and an increasingly north east wind.  Temperature of 9^o C when I arrived home felt far colder with that biting wind penetrating my clothing.  

The ECM mean is very well aspected this evening. Further to updates last week regarding the movement of vortex energy from west to east and end up residing north of Scandinavia and into Siberia - then updated modelling concurs.  Expect further modelling in days to come to fully advertise this evolution.

 

.

 

Amplification in the atlantic will be hard to achieve due to stubborness of the Azores High to break down as easterly trade winds underpin sub tropical ridges, and at the same time momentum transport from the tropics completes its spell of scrubbing westerly inertia only very slowly from mid latitudes as it heads polewards

 

What does this mean? Simply that we will be slow to see the jet stream return south due to energy inertia north of the mid latitude ridges, and the colder and more changeable weather further north will only make slow inroads during next week. Plenty of fine weather to come in this region.

 

Tams

Edited March 10, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Captain Shortwave]

Only 9 days till it happens, what could possibly go wrong

Edited March 10, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

friday

 

a weak north westerly flow

 

temps

 

around 14 degrees

 

cloud likely late pm

 

but dry again

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

a more noticeable north west wind

 

feeling chilly in that

 

somewhere around 14 degrees

 

again looks mainly dry but a chance of some showers to the far north east of the region

 

 

high pressure is being squeezed and being forced south eastwards

 

but this is fi as what happens next is the bit the models are struggling with

 

ukmo raw

 

 

bottom right is 144

 

and shows the high still hanging in there for now

 

back soon with the ensembles

[john pike]

ecm ensembles for 12z

 

temps

 

 

certainly chillier from the 17th on

 

to what extent

 

no idea

 

however the colder ensembles are now back to the 21st

 

thats different 

 

wind

 

 

some breezy bits but again no big storms

 

gfs at the end shows its normal windstorm

 

rain

 

 

dry to the 20th barring the odd shower showing from 14th

 

but the 20th is lala land so not even thinking that far at present

 

 

john

[SE Blizzards]

Amplification in the atlantic will be hard to achieve

 

Hi Tam 

 

GEFS 18z seem to disagree with that idea as can be seen in the pic below.

 

Plenty of amplification there.

 

Will be interesting to see how this develops during the coming days.

 

Of course, for now, i favour your idea (as you're 'mostly' always on the ball) of less amplification and only slow inroads of cooler/colder weather next week from the NW.

But who knows, maybe a late proper cold Northerly blast isn't completely out of the question 

Edited March 11, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[lassie23]

The ECM mean is very well aspected this evening. Further to updates last week regarding the movement of vortex energy from west to east and end up residing north of Scandinavia and into Siberia - then updated modelling concurs.  Expect further modelling in days to come to fully advertise this evolution.

 

.

 

Amplification in the atlantic will be hard to achieve due to stubborness of the Azores High to break down as easterly trade winds underpin sub tropical ridges, and at the same time momentum transport from the tropics completes its spell of scrubbing westerly inertia only very slowly from mid latitudes as it heads polewards

 

What does this mean? Simply that we will be slow to see the jet stream return south due to energy inertia north of the mid latitude ridges, and the colder and more changeable weather further north will only make slow inroads during next week. Plenty of fine weather to come in this region.

 

Tams

Are you sure TAM, i've heard that the weather could go back to being unsettled, with a cold spell thrown in to boot and as for April........

[john pike]

 

drop from the 17th still there

 

gfs has so far done well with that as picked up 6 days ago

 

question is

 

how cool-cold will it get?

 

i am sitting on the fence with this at present

 

that reminds me i have to fix my fence as well

 

i would have more confidence if these ensembles had better agreement on the 15th

 

thats why i am sticking short term for now (fax charts)

 

anyway off now as spending another day on the tiles

 

a night on the tiles would be better though

 

goodnight all

 

talk tomorrow

 

john

[lassie23]

The point you are trying to  make is totally lost on me.

LOL, glad to see someone has a sense of humour 7.0c in the capital tonight.

[Coopsy]

What's interesting is the March 20 jet stream forecast shows the High has slipped south and westerward and introduced a strong jet stream from the north, allowing some potentially cold air to come in on strong winds, setting up probability of north and east Scotland as direct hits for regular snow showers coming in off the north sea.

 

This chart ties in with the 18Z T850 temp gradient showing the potentially cold air and also the snow risk charts for the same time frame back this up.

 

 

 

IF that did happen then happy days for a lot of cold lovers, but its always the big IF.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2014 by canadiancoops

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Just found the REAL 'pub run' 

 

 

Care to explain this one JP? 

Edited March 11, 2014 by Essex Easterly.