South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 01/03/14

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

Another bright and sunny day, calm and clear, frosty start mind, took awhile to get the old jalopy going this morning, car took even longer!

 

12.4oC out in the shed right now, and it feels nice and mild too.

 

should be attending a short art session a bit later, not far and I have to walk to the post box anyway, two birds with one stone.

 

Hope your all having a great day

[Tamara]

Yes, I did a double take driving past that guy sitting casually on the bench in that field surrounded by the floodwater up to his ankles at that Sparrows Den location Very strange .. It would have been a pricelessly surreal pic to have taken and downloaded on this thread

 

He will probably be sitting there in the same seat sometime in the middle of August  - but this time, knowing the way that mother nature tends to work in this country, with withered brown grass and parched cracked soil ....and on this occasion without shoes or socks on

 

More seriously it will be especially interesting to see what sort of summer we get this year. However lets enjoy this lovely Spring weather first. I've had the conservatory doors open this afternoon and have been cleaning all the windows both inside and outside and polishing the wicker furniture in the sun on the patio. Plenty of tell tale signs left over from the winter storms with garden items that have blown from one end of the garden to another. Plus more repairs required to one of olive trees in the courtyard area. Looking outside at the blue sky, the bright sunshine and barely a breath of a breeze those storms see a long way away . Good riddance!

 

With the pattern across the Pacific changing, and with the jetstream a lot further north than it has been for quite some time, then we are starting Spring with a similar looking atlantic and european pattern to how we ended autumn and began winter - with mid latitude ridges strung across from the atlantic, through the UK and into Europe which looks to give our region quite a lengthy settled and mainly dry spell with only minor possible brief hiccups along the way

 

Out to day 5 on the ECM ensemble maps (as far as they go out in time) we can see solid agreement for the jet stream well north of us and those mid latitude ridges strung out across southern UK

 

 

In terms of how winter began, as mentioned above - back in December, the stormy pattern of the winter was set in motion by the early season polar vortex transisting east to west across the pole, whilst intensifying rapidly, to its final resting home in NE Canada. The contrasting difference this time is that transport of energy of the polar vortex will be from west to east, and as the ECM ensemble mean illustrates by day 10, whilst we can still see the purple colours indicative of vorticity over the Greenland area, it is mostly leaving Canada, and a much greater amount of vortex energy is across the pole itself at this time and heading towards Siberia.

 

In this short/medium term, the start of this energy transport process will keep the pattern in the atlantic flat, and therefore colder incursions from the north are very unlikely indeed over the coming 10 to 14 days.

 

 

However, beyond the 10 to 14 day period, and as the energy transport probably continues towards Siberia, we may well eventually see the pattern amplify rather more in the atlantic as the vorticity to our NW eases up, and this will have the effect of buckling and digging the jet stream back a little way southwards, so that the fine weather in our region may be replaced with something rather more changeable.

 

It is this process of upstream amplification moving into the atlantic, as the vortex starts to dominate maybe more in Siberia rather than the other side of the hemisphere as it has done right through the winter, that could introduce colder weather from the north later in the month as low pressure tracks towards Scandinavia and High pressure retrogresses to the west of the UK. Its uncertain, not to be completely relied on, and some way off as suggested in recent days, but the long term trend is still complicit with this type of potential evolution.

 

Here, I think it is possible that the 2013/14 seasonal vortex could well reside as the main cell of energy for the last remaining weeks of its life, before a "Final Warming" of the stratosphere breaks it up completely as we head later and later through Spring-time. We can see embryonic signs of such a significant warming process, that could perhaps be the very beginnings of the FW, coming into view in the upper levels of the stratosphere on the GFS stratosphere charts in the 10 to 15 day time period

 

.

 

Bear in mind this is a stratospheric model chart and obviously nothing to do with what the surface model charts for the same time indicate - it is simply indicative of predicted temperature changes at the top levels of the stratosphere, Zonal westerly winds at this level are suggested to decrease markedly according to these warming predictions shown - and which are being quite consistent from one output to another on a daily basis at the moment.

 

With quite some lag time involved,  I think this is the eventual catalyst to propogate warming and the markedly decreased westerly zonal winds downwards to the troposphere, with an eventual reversal to easterly of these winds as summertime polar stratospheric conditions are ushered in. Its these seasonal changes across the polar field, which naturally occur through Spring that make these forecasts quite reliable at this time of year.

Edited March 5, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Jax]

Looking good for a milder and frost free night I thought, cool not cold for a change, safes having to chip the car out of its nightly rest in the morning I hope, plus it likes the cold even less than me this days (it is getting on abit, something we have in common).

[Flaked Queen]

That's not our ladybird they attack ours don't they ?

Edited March 5, 2014 by snowlady36

[Mesoscale]

Saw a big ol queen bumblebee flying about all cumbersomely earlier, it was really nice in the sun but there was a chill in the air still.Its about time we had a bit of nice weather if we can't have snow I will take the warmer temperatures and dry weather! Some places really need it. 

[Crepuscular Ray]

That's not our ladybird they attack ours don't they ?

Right on both counts. That's a Harlequin ladybird. They both out-compete the native larvae for food and eath them.

 

http://www.harlequin-survey.org/

[Flaked Queen]

Right on both counts. That's a Harlequin ladybird. They both out-compete the native larvae for food and eath them. http://www.harlequin-survey.org/

ThankYou for the info

[Snowangel-MK]

Nice to see so many birds and insects enjoying the sunshine including a parakeet......

This pretty fella was sat in a tree picking at the blossom flowers in Battersea park today !

[terryall]

MK 

There are literally thousands of them in and around London and every afternoon a "lead" bird flies by first and then you know the regular flock of 30-50 are on their way. So noisy.

Officially they do not interfere with smaller birds but I'm not so sure myself. They have also been classed an an iindigenous species to the UK since around 1972 which some people may find alarming. Pretty to look at but a pain to listen to. Much like todays "pop" bands.

To keep on track I pulled up a seat outside around 4.40pm to enjoy the last of the sun which quickly disappeared behind a tree and it was freezing so came indoors again.

[lassie23]

Nice to see so many birds and insects enjoying the sunshine including a parakeet......

image.jpg

This pretty fella was sat in a tree picking at the blossom flowers in Battersea park today !

These birds are all over london now and they even visit gardens.

[Flaked Queen]

Well

Lovely and productive day in the garden BB hope you get out soon if I was that little bit nearer I would help

Weekend looks set to be nice sunshine at last

[PiggiePalace]

Evening everyone

 

A truly fabulous day weather-wise driving up from Sussex to Leeds to visit our adopted regionnaire Numpty. Sunshine, blue sky and really interesting cloud structures (whatever they were) all the way up the M1 - not seen these types for such a very long time!

 

The blackthorn (?) has exploded into blossom, there were buzzards galore soaring on the thermals....and I didn;t have to drop below 50mph all the way up.

 

Speaking of spring, it would appear that love is blossoming tonight for the speed-dating Ginger piggy - word is that he is happily snuggling up to his potential new wifepig....paws crossed it stays that way as we have to go back home tomorrow!

 

xxx

[Jax]

back from my art class and very good it was too, learned a lot.

 

Cool not cold here but at least it is dry

[john pike]

hi all

 

tonight

 

dry not cold mist and fog patches possible

 

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tomorrow

 

a slight breeze but not strong

 

rainfall

 

looks dry but a slim chance of some drizzle in the afternoon

 

temps

 

around 14 degrees

 

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tomorrow night

 

 

 

a breezy but not strong south west wind

 

rainfall

 

 

dry but some drizzle moving in for the morning

 

temps

 

around 10 degrees

 

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friday

 

a breezy but not strong north west wind

 

rainfall

 

 

a showery day and some a shade heavier to the north of our region

 

clears late pm

 

temps

 

around 14 degrees

 

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friday night

 

 

a weak south easterly flow

 

looks dry but mist and fog likely

 

temps

 

not cold

 

around 8 degrees

 

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saturday

 

a weak southerly flow

 

rainfall

 

 

nice and dry but looks like a cloudy day with some sunny periods

 

temps

 

14-15 degrees

 

and could feel a shade humid in the afternoon

 

back later with the rest

Edited March 5, 2014 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

These birds are all over london now and they even visit gardens.

You know how some peoples pets look a bit like them well this bird... wanted to look like her bird ..... :-) Slightly off topic so I better add it's chilly here tonight or someone might ruffle my feathers !

[lassie23]

You know how some peoples pets look a bit like them well this bird...

image.jpg

wanted to look like her bird .....

image.jpg

:-)

Slightly off topic so I better add it's chilly here tonight or someone might ruffle my feathers !

LOL that is very funny............9.4c calm in london

[Keraunic]

Been a beautiful day. There's that lovely fresh spring niff in the air this evening.

Funny, but I feel horribly homesick for the old house. Silly me.

[Jax]

You know how some peoples pets look a bit like them well this bird...

image.jpg

wanted to look like her bird .....

image.jpg

:-)

Slightly off topic so I better add it's chilly here tonight or someone might ruffle my feathers !

What the?

 

 

All you needed was an...

 

 

...AJ! Off topic post!  *points* !!!! <giggling laugh>

Edited March 5, 2014 by Jax

[Tamara]

I think they are a splash of colour and entertaining to watch, yes they are noisy too, keep seeing stories about possible culls, as far as I am aware there's no evidence out there that they are a threat to native species at present. It would be a dangerous precedent to set to have a cull just because they are noisy, where would it end - a politician cull - after all they are noisy, hmmm bad example as that would be extremely popular LOL.

 

Lovely day again today, long may it continue, great post earlier Tams. Quite hopeful for some warmth at the weekend now, 12.7c max here today which is not bad under some chilly uppers.

Hi Ian

 

Birds can always get away with being noisy - and also without appearing narcissistic when they have such natural colourful beauty

 

Hopefully there will be more beautiful sunsets to come such as this one today

 

[stun12]

Yes, 'twas a glorious day, even wading through the mud on the morning walkies was a pleasure. The bluebells are rising nicely in the woods and the fast-growing anemones are beginning to poke their heads above the ground too. I drove down to Rye to see the company accountant and the verges were full of daffodils standing proud. As a sufferer of SAD - I think we probably all are, unless we get to see snow or Keraunophile's rather odd rain fetish - I'm feeling a lot better about things in general. Long may it continue, though Tams is suggesting a bit of nastiness before the spring is sprung properly.

 

Bit worried about our fellow poster with the bath sheet...hopefully he didn't venture up to the pub in it.

[Jason T]

Evening all, LATE ONE for me logging in.. Hope everyone OK. Anyway , I had a chat with Winter,The excuses were quite good as the Burgers were Huge and the Coffee was endless.Anyway back to the lush green land of the UK, To which any hose pipe ban will be a distant memory, Unless it's the "Wrong" type of Rain, How they get round that one I will never know. The good old D Express have now buggered us for a decent dry out...Treasure the temps and the sun as the end is Nigh............Hope there ink runs out... Oh and now we can eat all the fried breakfast's we want...

 

[Jason T]

I love this Image.......Harmony

 

[HammerJack]

Evening all. A really fab day here today. Had an early frost, which delayed the school run by 5 mins, whilst the car windows defrosted. It's actually really nice driving home from work in the daylight now. Went out running again tonight, as I do most nights, but on my cool down around 8.15 I could still hear the birds tweeting. Really looking forward to the longer daylight evenings, more sun and nice warm temps.

I asked this the other night, but got no reply..... What's happend to Coast? Hope he is okay....

[john pike]

 

does the press have a way of buggering up the weather??

 

fax chart now shows a cold front running across us on sunday

 

would be warm

16-18 degrees

 

but cloudy with possible afternoon drizzle

 

hopefully this dies before it gets here and may show different tomorrow

 

monday

 

 

weak east-north east flow

 

now this would be cloudy and misty coastal and rural am

 

and might be stubborn to clear

 

temps

 

12-14 degrees but at least dry

 

 

[john pike]

 

bottom right chart for tuesday

 

ukmo raw

 

i like this chart as it looks dry

 

dont like it because easterly and has cloudy murk written all over it

 

temps though

 

10-15 degrees

 

lower likely east coastal and south east coastal regions due to low cloud

 

this will change as all depends where the high pressure sits

 

main thing anyway is the dry weather

 

will update tomorrow as normal

 

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

nice to see the rain spikes very low

 

just keep a beedie eye on the 17th on as quite a few ensembles are picking up something wetter now

 

overall

 

seen worse

Edited March 5, 2014 by john pike