South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/2/14 18z----->

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sun gone for the day.. 12.0c... No lower than 8.0c tonight I hope. .Planted seeds and 2 cherry trees...

[knocker]

Overcast with 8/8 As and St.

 

Temp 10C

 

Wind southerly just a zephyr

 

Pressure 1008 rising

 

Visibility good

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Partly cloudy.. Sunny. 15.5c. In the shade  11.1c. Humidity outside 57% .. Inside humidity  48%.

[Mapantz]

The forecasts on TV are going for thunder showers pushing up from the channel from midnight onwards, yet the euro 4 model doesn't show a single mm on the precipitation charts, the high res NMM doesn't show much either, it's just the GFS and the WRF that goes for it..

Radar watching later!

[egret]

The forecasts on TV are going for thunder showers pushing up from the channel from midnight onwards, yet the euro 4 model doesn't show a single mm on the precipitation charts, the high res NMM doesn't show much either, it's just the GFS and the WRF that goes for it..

Radar watching later!

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Radar currently showing meaty shower heading up towards IOW but no lightning detected. Looks like it will be more for the SE but you might get a shower triggered as air rises over Creech?

[Polar Bear]

Mowed the lawn late morn today for the first time this year. Quite a close cut but come afternoon lawn looked really dry and had dried out.. So I am wishing for rain tonight... Can you believe me? I can't.. I've gone mad. Still a hell of alot of moisture a couple o so mm under the topsoil.

Such a gorgeous gorgeous day today. Nice breeze too to dry the washing. Question is how long this will last. I've been so busy with work n things I haven't caught up. Guess I better get on it now! ... Now what about this meaty shower on the radar near IOW... What's that up to....

[gottolovethisweather]

The forecasts on TV are going for thunder showers pushing up from the channel from midnight onwards, yet the euro 4 model doesn't show a single mm on the precipitation charts, the high res NMM doesn't show much either, it's just the GFS and the WRF that goes for it..

Radar watching later!

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Thanks for this update Mapantz, me is going to bed as the clock change has upset me I reckon. As others have said, so far its only the SE looking likely to get hit but even then no sferics have been detected. Whatever, an intriguing week ahead of us and several opportunities forthcoming.

[knocker]

Quite an interesting sky this morning with 7/8 Cs with Ac at different levels.

 

Temp 9.4C

 

Wind SE 11mph

 

Mist

 

Pressure 1011 falling

[Dorsetbred]

The forecasts on TV are going for thunder showers pushing up from the channel from midnight onwards, yet the euro 4 model doesn't show a single mm on the precipitation charts, the high res NMM doesn't show much either, it's just the GFS and the WRF that goes for it..Radar watching later!

Well, it remained dry through the night, somebody got it wrong, although.......... something is appearing to the Western end of the IOW, so could be a close call for parts of eastern dorset.

Edited March 31, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

A trough seems to be in situ over Cornwall currently but with minimal activity associated with it.

Whether cell activity energises later today as it continues pushing north into moist, warm air remains to be seen;

Personally don't see much happening around these here parts today but we wil see.

[knocker]

METO Regional forecast.

 

South West

 

Headline:

Showers spreading northeast, but also brighter periods either side. Warm.

 

Today:

 

Many areas starting dry and bright with some hazy sunshine. Showers probably reaching Cornwall by mid-morning, with a band of heavy and potentially thundery showers spreading northeast across the region this afternoon. Feeling pleasantly warm in mostly light winds. Maximum Temperature 18 Â°C.

 

Tonight:

 

Any remaining showers clearing the northeast of the region this evening. Most places then dry with clear periods. Mist and patchy fog forming and becoming cold with a local frost. Minimum Temperature 2 Â°C.

 

Tuesday:

 

Mist and fog patches dispersing leaving some sunny periods. Some showers are likely to develop through the afternoon, especially further west. Feeling warm in light and variable winds. Maximum Temperature 18 Â°C.

 

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

 

Bright spells and showers on Wednesday. Thereafter, bands of rain or showers, some heavy, spreading north with drier and brighter periods inbetween, these most prolonged on Friday. Rather warm.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

 

UK

 

Headline:

 

Risk of heavy showers in west. Staying generally dry elsewhere.

 

Today:

 

Many areas starting dry with bright periods. Showers developing in southwest England and these spreading northeast this afternoon, some turning heavy and thundery. Many northeastern coastal counties remaining cool, dull and misty throughout the day. Rather warm again further south.

 

Tonight:

 

Thundery rain, mostly in west, spreading northeast this evening, lying over Scotland and northeast England by dawn. Becoming largely dry elsewhere with locally dense fog forming and patchy ground frost.

 

Tuesday:

 

Outbreaks of rain gradually dying out over Scotland. Elsewhere, patchy fog slowly lifting, then mostly dry with warm sunny periods. Isolated heavy afternoon showers developing. Some eastern coasts remaining dull.

 

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

 

Dry and bright periods for many, but scattered showers at times, these generally most frequent and widespread in southern and western Britain. Some northeastern areas remaining dull and misty throughout.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

Edited March 31, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Thickening As here with some Sc and doesn't feel that warm. Temp 13C with a light SE wind.

[gottolovethisweather]

A trough seems to be in situ over Cornwall currently but with minimal activity associated with it.

Whether cell activity energises later today as it continues pushing north into moist, warm air remains to be seen;

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Personally don't see much happening around these here parts today but we wil see.

 

Must be storm season if AWD is back.  Something is on the way up from Brest it seems, should traverse across the far SW in the next couple of hours, will it be thundery? We'll have to wait and see.

[Mapantz]

Well, it remained dry through the night, somebody got it wrong, although.......... something is appearing to the Western end of the IOW, so could be a close call for parts of eastern dorset.

The BBC south and national weather yesterday evening, showed a lot of greens and dark blues moving north west from the channel from midnight onwards, I did think it was ambitious, it was still on the graphics at 1am, by lunchtime, the heavy showers would be Midlands and north with more moving in to Cornwall and Devon. It seems the radar is peppered with drizzle monsters right now. Currently 12℃ and drizzly here.

[Dancerwithwings]

The BBC south and national weather yesterday evening, showed a lot of greens and dark blues moving north west from the channel from midnight onwards, I did think it was ambitious, it was still on the graphics at 1am, by lunchtime, the heavy showers would be Midlands and north with more moving in to Cornwall and Devon. It seems the radar is peppered with drizzle monsters right now.

Currently 12℃ and drizzly here.

Lol...Your right i was expecting a touch more, but now't! and regarding the radar...Well i'm right underneath that.... Not even drizzle! completely dry.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Cloudy with some sun.  13.3c.  in the shade 13.0c.

[Andy Bown]

Much of the rain showing on the radar isn't reaching the ground, at least not around here anyway with an hour of sporadic drops between about 11.30-12.30 while the radar shows more than that - possibly the first time in X number of months that rainfall is evaporating before reaching the ground!

 

Bright and pleasant at 14.9c with interesting mid-high level cloud cover.

[LA Discoz]

Blitzortung is showing an ever increasing finger of strikes creeping towards the south coast. Hopefully it survives its trip across the channel

[Andy Bown]

The way the showers/storm are lining up it's going to be a very hit and miss evening/night for our region, even if the thundery activity dies out there will be some places that stay dry.

[knocker]

We had some rain down here on a cloudy day which is breaking a bit now but it wasn't convective.

Edited March 31, 2014 by knocker

[Lyn-M]

Dry here, so far, but we did manage a very feint rainbow about an hour ago.

[Mapantz]

The MetOffice need to cop one for not issuing fog warnings!! I was coming back from the beach last night, even with just fog lights on, it was almost impossible to see anything 10m in front of you. I got back home and it was the same, it's still like it now. Pretty poor from them!

Currently 7.1℃

[egret]

The MetOffice need to cop one for not issuing fog warnings!! I was coming back from the beach last night, even with just fog lights on, it was almost impossible to see anything 10m in front of you. I got back home and it was the same, it's still like it now. Pretty poor from them!Currently 7.1℃

They did - at about 4.00 this morning. I wonder if 'now casting' improves their performance indicators? Oh - and did you catch anything last night? I was up in Suffolk a couple of weeks back and got loads of tiny codling - I just hope they don't all get netted out before the autumn as that seems to be what happens in recent years.

Edited April 1, 2014 by egret

[Mapantz]

They did - at about 4.00 this morning. I wonder if 'now casting' improves their performance indicators?

4am? Wth?! It stopped raining while I was at the beach, around 11pm .. The wind completely dropped, sea was like a millpond, sea fog came in, Poole vanished, and they issue a warning at 4am? I guess it is April fools day?! Edited April 1, 2014 by Mapantz

[Andy Bown]

Actually the BBC tv forecasts yesterday lunchtime and evening showed dense fog along the South Coast and it was spoken about by the forecasters, so even if no warning is issued one could interpret it for their own locality - unless you didn't see the forecasts.

 

Truly glorious day now after the foggy then low cloudy morning.