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Gray-Wolf

Is 2014 set to become the year the 'Naturals' flipped?

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I've been looking at the probable Nino, set to form this Spring/early Summer, for a month or so now. In doing so it is becoming apparent that the PDO is looking to flip positive at the same time? Should we see the Inter Decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) also flip from deep ocean warming phase to warm surface ocean phase we could see a sudden turn around of the current 'dampened' global air temp gains.

 

Does anyone else think that we may be in for an odd 2014?

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Well this appears popular?

 

So no one has an opinion either way?

 

We have the deniers believing in natural drivers ( but only those that work in such a way as to limit CO2's impacts) and so dare not think of any switch to positive drivers ,esp. any time soon, and folk who accept AGW too frightened to be seen to be wrong for suggesting an imminent switch?

 

Is that what we have or do folk really think that the coming years will not see Nino, PDO+ve or IPO warm surface phases/ Do we not think the Antarctic is done with it's flirtation with a SO promoting growth since the early 80's ? ( well there's a 30 year cycle eh???).

 

The thing , to me , is that the naturals will eventually alter as the Supertanker that is our warming planet gains momentum.... we've had a good long time powering into movement but now the ships in motion and we see the first signs of 'Naturals' altering ( be it the warming out of the PDO or the physical warming of the Nino regions etc).

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Most importantly, our analysis implies that significant warming trends are likely to resume, because the dominant long-term warming effect of well-mixed greenhouse gases continues to rise. Asian pollution levels are likely to stabilize and perhaps decrease, although lower solar activity may persist and volcanic eruptions are unpredictable. ENSO will eventually move back into a positive phase and the simultaneous coincidence of multiple cooling effects will cease. Further warming is very likely to be the result.

 

Gavin A. Schmidt, Drew T. Shindell & Kostas Tsigaridis have a new article in Nature Geoscience . What they've done is estimate the impact of actual measures of solar, volcanoes and ENSO on a CMIP5 ensemble.  They found that this reduced the recent difference between models and observations a whole lot.What they found in particular was the the models most likely overestimated the cooling from the Pinatubo eruption in the 1990s, making the models too cool and, when observed solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and ENSO were factored, in the models are pretty close to observations.

 

Reconciling warming trends

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n3/full/ngeo2105.html?WT.ec_id=NGEO-201403

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As we move forward surely the cumalitive impacts of change increase extremes and do so in an uneven way?

 

We may have just seen the last time negative natural forcings are able to reduce the rate of warming for the length of time we have seen. The next period of augmented warming will alter further the Arctic regions and so bring further 'warm forcings' into play ( albedo impacts/ocean atmosphere coupling) meaning that the combination of forcings we see today will not exist again?

 

Even the La Ninas have posted their warmest ever temps through this period of reduced warming and , of course, we have seen the Arctic Sea ice dwindle to record lows. How will this play out under the flip side forcings? Will we see Nino temps breaking global records? Will we lose Arctic Sea ice?

 

So it is looking like a Nino is favourite to form and the extended, seasonal forecasts, show PDO+ve ssts over the PDO region so are we looking at a flip year? Are we to see the full on negative forcings ease or even reverse?

 

I believe that those Denying Human induced climate shift are afraid of what has to come to pass. They surely expected cooling ( they try and tell us this is what has occured?) over such an extended period of cool forcings but it has not happened. If such concerted natural forcings for cooling only slows the rate of warming , and still allows the record global temp record, set by a Super Nino year, to be broken then what should we now expect from either neutral or positive forcings?

 

Extreme weather is already being linked with changes to climate and this under the damping impacts of negative cool forcings. What will we be hearing once nature adds Her hand to those extremes?

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My Son chose some Nat geo progs for our 'bedtime watch' last night and after he'd fallen asleep a prog on the flooded sink holes in Bermuda came on. Amongst the discovery of how humans had driven a mass extinction across the Islands they also took samples of the Stalagmites from the pool floor. From these it became apparent that prior to major climate flips a sequence of haematite was laid down. The source of the iron was Saharan dust. So prior to major climate shifts we see drought across the Sahara and an increase in dust storms ( and the dust clouds making it to Bermuda).

 

The past 50yrs has seen a ten fold increase in dust storms across the Sahara. Last year saw Major dust clouds driven into , and across, the Atlantic.

 

Are the paleo records warning us of what to look for prior to a climate flip? Has the recent past flagged the approach of such a flip? Is this the year to show the beginnings of that flip as warm natural drivers come to the fore and Arctic sea ice again hits record lows?  

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Another PDO+ve value month and looking set for a number more positive months over the summer? Currently you need to go back to 2003 to find as high a pdo value as last month? 

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Bump!

 

With the global temp series and PDO numbers about to come out has anyone else noted the swing away from the more 'typical' hiatus globe over the past 18 months or so?

 

Sparks posted a huge transcript from a meeting of climate scientists back in Jan 2014 who were of the opinion that any hiatus was unlikely to last 20 years so if we take 98' as the start of this period we are well within the 'to be expected' territory for a flip?

 

I'm sure the folk posting in the sceptics thread ( is that really what most of them are?) have no interest in seeing the period end but what of the average poster? Is time now up for deep ocean warming and the past year of SST influenced global temps the beginning of the next positive phase?

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Well it's cooling slightly since 2000 never mind flat-lining for 20 years.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:180/plot/rss/last:180/trend

Don't you feel you're flogging a dead horse?

What about all the other data sets and the fact that they show the opposite to RSS? And what happened to needing a statistically significant trend? Don't you feel like you're being a massive hypocrite?

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What about all the other data sets and the fact that they show the opposite to RSS? And what happened to needing a statistically significant trend? Don't you feel like you're being a massive hypocrite?

 

Perhaps my earlier post in the other thread is appropriate here.

 

 

There is an interesting disagreement there. Carl Mears, the man behind RSS, says

"A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)."

 

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/monckton-and-goddard-o-lord.html

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Well if this is right, then that means that Blast From The Past was wrong about the so called "La Nina Perturbation Phase" (which started apparently in February 2007) lasting 36 years.

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Hi Craig!

 

Take a read through the transcript of the meeting in Jan 2014 that Sparks linked to over in the sceptics thread? I know nothing of BFTP's feeling on ENSO predominance but I seem to recall phases showing a relationship with the PDO phase?

 

The current Neg PDO will probably be shown to have started in 98' but since the early 80's the AGW signal has been messing with the 'phases' so it's a tad messy with a very 'stop.start ' look to the plot? As such the past year has it shifting back positive ( and the near threshold Nino seems to agree with this?) so we look likely to enter a Nino predominance for the next decade or so?

 

Sadly we have moved on since 98' and now we have the AGW augmented IPO to deal with? The strengthening of the Trades and the burying , in the top 700m of the oceans, of the incoming heat during the IPO -ve now also appears to be wavering so this huge reserve of 'heat' now also appears to be about to start leaching back into the atmosphere? This past year of high global temps is mainly on the back of SST's but this is just what the incoming solar has driven and does not yet include any significant of the 'buried' heat? Should this really be a flip then you can expect more SST driven high Global temps but should expect to start to see record high anoms for Global SST's? This would Dwarf ENSO signals as the surface area pumping heat into the atmosphere would be far greater than the ENSO 'strip'?

 

Nobody wishes to see a resumption of rapid global warming but surely we all accepted that the 'naturals' had two phases and that the one that offset AGW warming with natural cooling would be replaced with naturals that added into the AGW signal?

 

Seeing as we no longer have the levels of summer ice/snow cover that we enjoyed the last time naturals were positive we might also expect this to further augment warming over this period ( and maybe even our first 'ice free' period over the Arctic basin???) .

 

We also need understand that whatever the CO2 forcing is it is now higher than the last time Naturals were positive and so the atmosphere is better able to hold onto any heat we see building?

 

Don't worry though as it will all become a lot clearer over the coming decade? The 'guessing' will be removed if we see Global temps sky rocket over the upcoming solar min? 

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Don't worry though as it will all become a lot clearer over the coming decade? The 'guessing' will be removed if we see Global temps sky rocket over the upcoming solar min? 

 

Very true. Hard to be totally convinced that we will see a very sharp rise in temperature - seems to me that the experts make it up as they go along as much as the best intentioned amateurs!! The slow down in temps was not predicted... then we were told that the temporary halt would last until 2020.... and now it is suggested that the temperature record will begin to accelerate again as of now. Hmmmm. 

 

I'm not sure that anyone has a clue quite what is going to happen to be honest. Feedbacks are still not fully understood; models are still being adjusted. Solar effects? Not so long ago disregarded. Now accepted in some form... but how influential?? And there is still the nagging feeling that the long term climate record shows spikes in temperature of a "natural" cause... so is the current one necessarily out of sync?

 

But I do agree that we should be concerned.... and as I just replied to you over on TWO I think what happens in the arctic is pivotal. As the dominant inhabitants of the planet we have a responsibility for ensuring that we look after it as best we can. My dirty washing is my responsibility and no one else's...

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Very true. Hard to be totally convinced that we will see a very sharp rise in temperature - seems to me that the experts make it up as they go along as much as the best intentioned amateurs!! The slow down in temps was not predicted... then we were told that the temporary halt would last until 2020.... and now it is suggested that the temperature record will begin to accelerate again as of now. Hmmmm. 

 

I'm not sure that anyone has a clue quite what is going to happen to be honest. Feedbacks are still not fully understood; models are still being adjusted. Solar effects? Not so long ago disregarded. Now accepted in some form... but how influential?? And there is still the nagging feeling that the long term climate record shows spikes in temperature of a "natural" cause... so is the current one necessarily out of sync?

 

But I do agree that we should be concerned.... and as I just replied to you over on TWO I think what happens in the arctic is pivotal. As the dominant inhabitants of the planet we have a responsibility for ensuring that we look after it as best we can. My dirty washing is my responsibility and no one else's...

 

Only the long term temperature has been predicted, because nobody can guess the short term due to normal weather variability, things like ENSO, PDO, solar activity, etc. But over long periods, these things even out and so the long term trend becomes more apparent.

Also, the recent study suggested up to a 25% chance that when 15 years without a temperature increase occurs, that they extent to 20 years. As it is, we have had a temperature increase that has passed the statistical significance in some data sets, and will likely become statistically significant in several more after this year.

 

Sure scientists are still learning, but only a fringe few think that solar activity will have a significant impact on global temperatures. What's mainly being worked out is the influence it has on regional weather, especially via UV output.

 

We know that the warming is due to CO2 for various reasons, there is way more than just a correlation with global temps. You can read more about them here http://www.skepticalscience.com/its-not-us-intermediate.htm

 

Even just today, another study has confirmed the that the extra CO2 is having the expected influence

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14240.html#close

These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

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Only the long term temperature has been predicted, because nobody can guess the short term due to normal weather variability, 

 

Yes - agree totally. I probably didnt make that clear. Short term variability - and the difficulty predicting it - was what I meant when referring to constantly changing predictions.

 

And totally agree that local variability within a broader global temperature rise is the challenge. I do think that anyone claiming the world isnt warming is probably looking through very warped lenses now... though the extent to which natural and man made forcings are relatively responsible is still worth debating. However how it will affect circulation patterns and the distribution of heat must be the toughest call of all. 

 

Hence my own preoccupation with what is happening in the arctic. This must surely be of great concern... and when images of methane bubbles breaking through the permafrost in Yamal are shown as evidence of one product of this warming it does make me wonder whether loss of sea ice might become catastrophic in some parts of the northern hemisphere in as little as another human lifespan.

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I'd agree that the Arctic appears to be a 'wild card' and I find it hard to believe that though we are a weather site folk do not appear to accept that adding a heap of energy into a near closed system must force change? The ongoing discoveries across Siberia's north does have me a tad jumpy as if we are seeing land temps high enough to begin such destabilisation then what must be occurring to the same sediments under the shallow shelf sea?

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The answer to your question is "no" Please can you start a thread for all your pet foibles so we can all retrospectively look them up and amuse ourselves at your expense. Wait! You've already done it for this year, too. Marvellous.

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So

 

Are we now all agreed that the naturals didn't flip in 2014?, and the 'pause' in the trend of increasing rates of temperatures  has not stopped? (for 30 year values!)

 

I think this method is a very good method for determining the end of the hiatus - as we now call it..

 

I certainly will consider the pause over when the 'trend line' of the rate of increase turns upwards again.

It is something that many blogs have discussed as to how we can define the end of the hiatus.

 

It seems like the best method I have seen for making a decision or not. Quite how much of a  change of trend is required to classify as a real  change of trend needs to be discussed.......

 

Coming back to the models -

The work by a team of modellers on the chances of the pause lasting for extended periods were as follows -

 

1) for 15 years - 8% chance of it happening.

2) for 17 years - 5% chance of it happening

3) for 19 years - 3% chance of it happening

4) for 20 years -  0.8% chance of it happening.

 

So in the period about now (17 - 18 years) the models will go outside the 2sigma definition of the current modles being correct..

If we get to 19 years the chances  of the models being incorrect are  97%

If we get to 20 years the chances of the models being incorrect are 99.2%

 

It looks as if you do not get your change shortly GW, someone needs to consider that not everything is correct in the world of modelling of future catastrophic warming.

 

There are many unknowns in this climate of ours, and it looks as if something is not being correctly modelled or omitted.

 

As most of us all think,, the next 5 years will be defining.

 

I am not taking sides here, just trying to make meaningful suggestions that we can accurately measure..   

 

MIA  

    

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I'm not entirely sure what is meant by the "naturals" so will have to make assumptions here.

 

PDO = very positive

AMO = weakly positive

ENSO = weakly positive (predominately Modoki type therefore circulation patterns not corresponding to true NINO state.

Solar maximum early in the year.

 

Global response = warmest on record.

 

IMO, 'naturals' are in a constant state of flux - some permutations enhance, others offset any warming signal - therefore, I don't agree with the premise of a switch being flicked from off to on as far as indices are concerned but in the case of 2014 there were more on than off.

 

Probably a similar scenario this year but, in reality, we don't know the longevity of any of them.

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Yes good points, the premises of the question practically assumes a guiding force rather than the random chaos of the real world

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The monthly AMO value for March was the most -ve since April 2009. Seeing as both the -ve PDO and quietest and longest solar minimum in a century didn't cause the cooling that many AGW "sceptics" anticipated, is there anyone left to claim a -ve AMO spell will cause global temps to drop?

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I posted the original research article on this elsewhere as it really applied to current weather https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82894-warm-blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-weird-weather-across-the-us/#entry3188518 but the follow up is more to do with climate.

 

warm phase — and the consequences could be dramatic

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/10/the-pacific-ocean-may-have-entered-a-new-warm-phase-and-the-consequences-could-be-dramatic/?postshare=51428673947317

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