South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/14

[john pike]

Record Snowfall in Norfolk Monday

http://us92.com/news/?more=fqi76xpx

 

 

hi lassie

 

still not sure whether this winter might have a sting in its tail yet or not

 

time will tell on that

[john pike]

fax at 96

 

 

 

 

at 120

 

 

 

 

ukmo not agreeing with the 120 fax there

 

not commenting on the above but they are not warm

[HammerJack]

Record Snowfall in Norfolk Monday

http://us92.com/news/?more=fqi76xpx

hi lassie

still not sure whether this winter might have a sting in its tail yet or not

time will tell on that

Hey JP..... I would be quite happy for a sting in the tail, and some welcome Snowfall ;-)

Night all... I'm cream crackered..., off to dream about snow now. Zzzzzz

Edited February 26, 2014 by LeighD

[john pike]

Hi JP, judging by this and your previous post things might get lively again, hope the jet goes north, a long way north!

 

hi bjay

 

one thing which helps is low pressure to our south east now

 

the lows if they head our way will not power up like before

 

and will move pretty quick

 

we could see a pretty cold run from the north west which could be more than rain

 

if the maritime air gets in the mix

 

too hard to call how this pans out but certainly looking a lot colder than we have had recently

[Tamara]

I don't think that we are going to see anything especially cold in the coming few days - the relatively lower temperatures that are likely to arrive, would be considered almost tropical by the standards that much of the latter part of the previous winter was measured - and more especially weeks 2 to 4 of March 2013

 

The low pressure indicated on the model charts/fax charts etc is surface low pressure that is decaying as it heads south eastwards from the main upper trough to the NW (much as we have seen all winter) and this will not advect cold upper air far south (again much as we have seen all winter)

 

Some parts in the north of the region are likely to see some wintry precipitation in the mix, most especially over the hillier parts where a slight temporary slushy covering may occur, but it is unlikely to amount to much at all.

 

On the basis that many places have not even seen partially melted snowflakes, let alone any settling snow, then I guess it could be seen as a last minute mini morsel consolation Alternatively perhaps it could be seen rather as taking the biscuit in terms of a pathetic final end to a very forgettable winter.

Edited February 26, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Keraunic]

I'm looking forward to some, possible, cracking thunder storms this summer. All nighters, plumes and all that sort of thing.

Night, night all. Sleep well.

[john pike]

 

not warm

 

 

gfs has its customary windstorm in fi

 

rain

 

 

rain

 

both ops right at the top of the ensembles

 

gfs from the 6th a slight outlier

 

 

hi tam

 

your entitled to your opinion

 

dont agree with you this time though

 

although trying to predict it is very tricky

 

fax for friday night

 

under 528 dam air

 

uppers

 

-4 not that impressive but under these uppers at 500

 

thats cold enough under heavier precipitation

 

will likely change tomorrow but i am not saying that is warm

 

far from it

Edited February 26, 2014 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

So do we have the chance of something falling out of the sky beginning with s and ending in w

saw, sew, sow, scow, shew, show, skew, slaw, slew, slow, snew, spew, stew, stow, screw, shrew, sinew, squaw, straw, strew, seesaw, shadow, sorrow, shallow, somehow, sparrow,? Maybe - who knows !

[john pike]

personally

 

want it to warm up now

 

the weather dont do requests though

[Tamara]

Hi JP & Tams,

 

think I would rather just see the Azores ridge north and kill off this rotten winter, can't see anything coming our way to match the severity of the last few months in terms of wind or rain and equally don't see a March 2013 on the cards either but as ever will be happy to be watch and be guided by the both of you.

Hi Ian - I'm not trying to guide anyone, I'm no more special than anyone else  Its a thread where any of us have the opportunity if we wish to give an opinion on the weather ahead . Its not a competition, or about right or wrong, as much as it shouldn't be on the MOD thread either, and I have done with that thread anyway.

 

 

Maybe they disappeared because their eyes bled and they had to go to the hospital because so many posts on here are like reading a novel that after 23,000 words I would rather pierce my left nut than read another word.

 

Or yes maybe its because of the rutting - did you know we have rutting season here in Canada. Lucky buggers. 1male to 50 female. Though I hear him crying at night...probably all the talking going on.

 

eyes2.jpg

And this is exactly the type of thing posted in the MOD thread directed at me over the last few weeks that makes me leave

Edited February 26, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Snowangel-MK]

The man from met monkey says the risk is exceptionally low for the following reasons:

(a) Cold air entrainment prior to the low tracking across the country is meager and will not aid in lowering the 0oC isotherm

(b) Boundary layer air @ approx 850mb will average -3oC which is marginal for ground above 200m but too high for sea level wintriness

© Warm air advection/Warm sector of the low will generally keep the 0oC isotherm up

(d) Despite the possibility of colder surface temperatures prior to the approach of the low, temperatures will rise during the passage of the warm sector tied in with the low centre, which will lead to dew points of approx +2oC or above, or 1oC to above 200m+

(e) (+) points for possible wintriness are upper air profiles ie. 500mb of approx -30oC and a geo-potential thickness below the around the required DAM528. Upper level requirements despite being supportive of wintriness, when combined with the other variables, will not be enough to support snow to lower levels. There is potential for isothermal melt layer induced wintriness to higher levels above 200m generally in heavier PPN (precipitation)

Although we're monitoring the potential of some wintriness, it's much more likely that this will be limited to higher ground of 200m+ primarily across Wales, whether this warrants issuing a watch is unclear, but right now it does fall below our threshold.

Advice is to take the MO advice seriously, but if you are expecting snow, don't be surprised to see rain with the occasional pulse of sleet to slightly higher ground and some wet snow to the very highest ground.

[john pike]

hi tam

 

agree with you

 

glad i dont work for the met office at the moment

[john pike]

hi tam

 

thats pretty pathetic

 

i would report that post

 

no need for that

[Steve C]

Hi Ian - I'm not trying to guide anyone, I'm no more special than anyone else  Its a thread where any of us have the opportunity if we wish to give an opinion on the weather ahead . Its not a competition, or about right or wrong, as much as it shouldn't be on the MOD thread either, and I have done with that thread anyway.

I wouldn't worry about the opinions of a couple of narcissistic posters on that thread. Your analyses were always a level above their hopecasting forecasts this winter. You certainly shouldn't be dissuaded from posting there IMHO.

[Tamara]

hi tam

 

thats pretty pathetic

 

i would report that post

 

no need for that

I already have john - and have received a derisory reply. Time to give up definitely

[john pike]

hi tam

 

i wouldnt, as you do a good job on there

 

however i understand how you feel and would not blame you whatever you decide

 

stay in here

 

we can have the odd disagreement

 

but not to the the extent where we are childish about it

Edited February 27, 2014 by john pike

[SE Blizzards]

I already have john - and have received a derisory reply. Time to give up definitely

 

Don't give up Tamara. You're a breath of fresh air to all the threads that you post in.

I for one love reading your long informative posts, and i have learnt a great deal from you in the 15 or so months that i have been a member.

There are always one or two idiots lurking on forums etc, but please don't let them spoil your enjoyment. 

Just ignore them Tamara, they're not worth it at the end of the day.

 

Really hope that you change your mind and continue to post.

 

Keep smiling.

 

[john pike]

 

i get the feeling gfs is struggling after the 5th

 

the control run is popping up with this set up more than once now

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&carte=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=4&carte=0

 

thinks about warming up

 

then gets cold again

 

thankfully in lala land and hopefully stays there now

[Snow Queen one]

Tamara I have been a member for 10 years now and remember you joining. Please don't give up your talents are wasted on the MOD thread. Stay in here with us we appreciate all you do to try to keep us informed of what the models are saying. People like you John Pike and JH are valuable to this forum and even more so to this thread. Hope you reconsider. Xx

SQ1

[Steve C]

I already have john - and have received a derisory reply. Time to give up definitely

Hmmm. A derisory reply is just not on when reporting a truly insulting comment IMHO.

Still, Tom's comment was a good one there.

[john pike]

i think tam should stay in here

 

will be the mad threads loss

 

not ours

[john pike]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/462046/Winter-is-NOT-OVER-Eight-inches-of-snow-to-hit-UK-this-weekend-in-ferocious-final-freeze

 

pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaassssssssssssssssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

oh well

 

rain it is then

[Bluebreezer54]

Netweather needs MORE posters like Tamara, not less.

 

That's all.

[sclarke]

The MOD thread is a pretty pointless place these days. I'll openly admit that I'm still very much learning all this, so I found that thread very interesting and posts by the likes of Tamara and Gibby for e.g provided me with a lot of good info. People criticising them are just odd. It's weather, decided by nature, yet certain people still seem to get het up and wound up about it all on there. It's a weird place.

 

But please keep on posting those so called 23,000 word essays, as for people like me, it's a valuable learning tool and gives me a hell of a lot more insight than the aggressive posters provide.

[SE Blizzards]

i think tam should stay in here

 

will be the mad threads loss

 

not ours

 

Don't worry, she may of give up on the MAD thread, but she'll continue to post in here, i'm sure of it.

 

She knows that this is the best thread on the whole of this site.

 

Tamara just won't be able to stay away.