Wales, The Midlands and Southwest England - Regional Weather Chat

[ncikos]

Its gone very dark now something is brewing

yeh its gone dark here as well no thunder rain or anything hmm

[SteveB]

Had a couple of storms overnight last night.

 

Going to the cinema this afternoon, so will probably miss the afternoon action. Hopefully get another sneaky storm in before then.

[PolarWarsaw]

Very dissapointing overnight period.

[Zephyr]

Need to try and get rid of these nocturnal remnants now and hopefully get the sun back out for a few hours to regenerate CAPE levels if we stand anymore chances of storms later on this afternoon/tonight. 

[ncikos]

Need to try and get rid of these nocturnal remnants now and hopefully get the sun back out for a few hours to regenerate CAPE levels if we stand anymore chances of storms later on this afternoon/tonight. 

theres no storms forcast for tonight mate its all dying off anyway

[Polar Maritime]

theres no storms forcast for tonight mate its all dying off anyway

 

I would hold on to your Horses for now.. As forecast'd by NickF a very unpredictable day coming up. If the Sun gets strong enough there are chances of home grown Storms, Amongst storms pushing North from France.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80904-spanish-plumeconvective-technical-analysis-discussion-1772014-onwards/?p=3009162 

Edited July 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Zephyr]

 

 

A thing of beauty. 

 

Is this capped in lower levels? Sorry new to skew-t's..

 

Edited July 19, 2014 by Zephyr

[Barbmac]

Just heard a rumble of thunder coming out of that long band of precipitation coming up from the south. Foggy with heavy rain here.

[conor123]

Rain, rain, rain with no thunder, no lightning zzz.

Actually thought we were gonna get something last night with deep distant thunder and lightning getting closer but everything stayed south east with nothing but drizzle and moderate rain.

Edited July 19, 2014 by conor123

[ncikos]

Rain, rain, rain with no thunder, no lightning zzz.Actually thought we were gonna get something last night with deep distant thunder and lightning getting closer but everything stayed south east with nothing but drizzle and moderate rain.

Yeah i dont get why the bbc forecasters got it so very wrong.Typically as always in these situations they wont admit to there failings.Hope u see something decent later its all finished here in the west

[Mapantz]

One thing to bear in mind, the warnings from the Met Office are directly for rain, not thunder & lightning.

[gloucesterlad]

Yeah i dont get why the bbc forecasters got it so very wrong.Typically as always in these situations they wont admit to there failings.Hope u see something decent later its all finished here in the west

 

I have to disagree with the 'very wrong'. On many occasions the forecasters (particularly the BBC) stated some will get hit and others will be in the 'gaps'. Yes - we got hammered last night but we could have been in one of 'the gaps'. The warnings are advisories and as with all storms they could have been in any part of the amber warning area. Even today the warning has "Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms" and I am sure the previous warning was similar. So the meto cannot be knocked for covering their asses. Had you been hit by one of these storms I am sure you would have been congratulating them on their accuracy.

I am sure it will be your turn next time o.k. but nothing is guaranteed within situations like this.

John

[ncikos]

I have to disagree with the 'very wrong'. On many occasions the forecasters (particularly the BBC) stated some will get hit and others will be in the 'gaps'. Yes - we got hammered last night but we could have been in one of 'the gaps'. The warnings are advisories and as with all storms they could have been in any part of the amber warning area. Even today the warning has "Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms" and I am sure the previous warning was similar. So the meto cannot be knocked for covering their asses. Had you been hit by one of these storms I am sure you would have been congratulating them on their accuracy.

I am sure it will be your turn next time o.k. but nothing is guaranteed within situations like this.

John

Thanks for the reply im expecting met office to start removing there warnings soon cus its not needed any more.

[Dancerwithwings]

Potential this afternoon is just incredible with cape values of -8 -9 on the menu, it just shows how the atmosphere is so unstable and in being so things later could be very interesting

 

[SDM.13]

I'm such a donut. I checked our the south east section page and was commenting on there when it hit :/

I've had 3 hours sleep and wasted sleep being scared.. When all I had was extremely loud thunder, heavy rain on and off and that's it. Went on over an hour but it wasn't severe in any shape or form and I was right in the firing line.

Its so humid out here right now I feel sticky

[Frosty_wsm]

The Met/bbc didn't get anything wrong, they clearly said there would be gaps, not everywhere would see storms and that's exactly how things played out, how anyone can say the forecast was wrong is beyond me!

Had thunder and lightning between 5 and 6am,that was it for this area unless we had some during the very early hours that wasn't loud enough to wake me up lol.

[knocker]

Extremely lucky down here in god's country. Cloud cover of broken Ac with some Cu. A gentle zephyr and temp 20C. and not a storm in sight.

[Zephyr]

It's still so humid here temp is 18.0c and rising with humidity of 95% 

 

I have to agree the met office and bbc forecast was spot on if anything they did well considering the set up when anything can just spark in to life, look at that cell in Weymouth last night came from no where! Just shows how hard it is as a job trying to predict the future when something hasn't even happened yet. Forecast's are not going to please everyone but the forecast was spot on as they said it would be hit and miss with certain area's getting something and others missing out. 

 

 

 

Several areas of heavy, thundery showers will develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards during Saturday. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times, but where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses.

The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption from any of these elements. 

 

 

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment The very warm and humid airmass across the UK will become increasingly unstable on Friday night and through Saturday. This will lead to the development of areas of intense thunderstorms, these moving northwards across the UK and affecting different areas at various times through the day. In this situation, large amounts of energy are available in the atmosphere and this, coupled with high moisture content, can lead to torrential downpours along with frequent lightning activity, large hail and locally strong gusts. As is usually the case with thunderstorms, broad areas can be identified as at risk some time in advance but detail will remain very uncertain until very close to the event. Some areas will miss the worst of the storms whilst nearby spots experience severe downpours with some localised flooding, so the public are advised stay in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings through Saturday.

[The Wolf]

Torrential rain here.

Roads like rivers!

[Charlton Adam snow]

nice little cell approaching Portland/South Dorset, plenty of strikes as we speak:

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12

(sorry can't set the link)

[CongletonHeat]

Had a bit of thunder about 1.30 am when I went to bed, just really heavy rain now, day totally ruined.

[ncikos]

It's still so humid here temp is 18.0c and rising with humidity of 95% 

 

I have to agree the met office and bbc forecast was spot on if anything they did well considering the set up when anything can just spark in to life, look at that cell in Weymouth last night came from no where! Just shows how hard it is as a job trying to predict the future when something hasn't even happened yet. Forecast's are not going to please everyone but the forecast was spot on as they said it would be hit and miss with certain area's getting something and others missing out. 

Have to disagree mate but ive phoned the met office and complained.The amount of warnings up which arnt currently necessary is a total joke.This will be the last time i listen to any bbc weather forecaster local or national.Im off to tired after being up all night waiting for nothing.

[SDM.13]

I'm just annoyed that I had a direct hit and it was just noisy thunder.. No terrible conditions and the rain was heavy but didn't go on for ages.

I'm tired of the scaremongering when a storm is coming.

I was expecting this to be the worst one I've seen, but the last one from France was more impressive and that was a small area that came over

[Charlton Adam snow]

Have to disagree mate but ive phoned the met office and complained.The amount of warnings up which arnt currently necessary is a total joke.This will be the last time i listen to any bbc weather forecaster local or national.Im off to tired after being up all night waiting for nothing.

We all have our views - I'm not having a go, but the warnings made it very clear that some areas will get hammered (we did in Central/East Somerset)others will get hardly anything....the warnings are issued by the Met Office, who have to balance the probability against the potential impact. If you don't warn/remove one too early that's wrong also!! They can't win whatever they do/don't do..Cheers

[Andy Bown]

Very rapid developments over Dorset again running up into South Wiltshire. I am amazed at the developments, especially with only limited brightness to aid convection. It is simply a radar watching exercise and there are more storms in the Channel too!