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Like 2012, it's mainly the maxima so far that are bumping up the CET so much. As of the 10th maxima are 11.2C, 2.8C above average, whereas minima is provisionally on 2.9C to the 11th, 1.2C above average. Even so, the minima up until now are lower than the preceding winter months: Dec (3.3C), Jan (3.0C) and Feb (3.4C).

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Down to 7.0c to the 11th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

Average max stays at 11.2C, minima down 0.1C to 2.8C, which probably explains the drop from yesterday. We could be looking at a cool maxima day across much of the CET zone, especially if the fog and cloud lingers until or beyond midday. We could be back in the 6's on tomorrow's update.

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While there's always the chance of a direct northerly hit, the fact that any breakdown is now beyond the 20th and could be pushed further does make me believe it will be difficult to get below 7C now.

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6.9C to the 13th.1.8C above the 60-91 average.

 

 

I assume you mean the rolling 60-91 average.. 6.9 degrees is only a little above the 81-10 average I believe.

 

Despite high maxima in recent days, the cold minima has helped prevent a very mild CET value at this stage. However, the next few nights will be quite mild with maxima holding up well so I wouldn't be surprised to see the figure in the high 7's by this time next week and with still 10 days to go, we could end up with a notably mild month... however, my own thoughts are for average temperatures to hold sway, with a final figure somewhere in the 7's. Can't see a below average month, but still in with a chance of something near average if we see a more pronounced NW airflow for the latter part of the month.

 

We have seen a very mild 6 month period, with only one shortlived cooler than average spell in November. We do seem to be enjoying lengthy periods of consistently mild or cool weather. Mid Jan though until late June last year was significantly cooler than average, the tables then turned in July. Apr-mid Dec 12 was also a cool period coming on the back of a lengthy mild period between Sept 11 and March 12. It would be sod's law the mild theme breaks in time for summer...

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Min today of 6.7C while maxima are likely to be around 12C, so 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

 

7.8C to the 21st (6.5)

7.7C to the 22nd (5.6)

7.5C to the 23rd (5.1)

7.4C to the 24th (4.5)

7.4C to the 25th (6.0)

7.3C to the 26th (5.5)

7.2C to the 27th (5.0)

 

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Min today of 6.7C while maxima are likely to be around 12C, so 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 7.8C to the 21st (6.5)7.7C to the 22nd (5.6)7.5C to the 23rd (5.1)7.4C to the 24th (4.5)7.4C to the 25th (6.0)7.3C to the 26th (5.5)7.2C to the 27th (5.0)

I suspect we will finish around the high 6's after corrections.
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May well have peaked CET wise come tomorrow, much cooler maxima and minima is on the cards at least until mid next week, so still a chance of coming in quite close to average although a little above. My hunch is we will end up somewhat milder with a finish in the low 7's - a mild month but not particularly so.

 

Still it will be the 4th milder than average month in a row. Indeed since mid September bar a short spell in November temperatures have consistently been above average, and for lengthy periods appreciably so, not seen such a sustained spell of warmth since Autumn 2011 - March 2012 bar the 14 day spell between 28th Jan and 12th Feb.

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