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Minimum today of 2.5C, with maxima around 9C, should leave us close to 4.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET around

5.0C to the 3rd (5.3)

5.0C to the 4th (4.8]

5.3C to the 5th (6.5)

5.6C to the 6th (7.0)

5.9C to the 7th (8.1)

6.4C to the 8th (9.7)

6.5C to the 9th (7.5)

 

Those recording breaking days are gone, as the minima remain cool on recent runs

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Minimum today of 2.5C, with maxima around 9C, should leave us close to 4.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET around

5.0C to the 3rd (5.3)

5.0C to the 4th (4.8]

5.3C to the 5th (6.5)

5.6C to the 6th (7.0)

5.9C to the 7th (8.1)

6.4C to the 8th (9.7)

6.5C to the 9th (7.5)

 

Those recording breaking days are gone, as the minima remain cool on recent runs

 

What is the expected range of increase over the month? I would assume could be at least a couple of degrees in a southern location.

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What is the expected range of increase over the month? I would assume could be at least a couple of degrees in a southern location.

 

The daily average from 1772-2013 for the first 3 days is 4.7C, while the last 3 days is 6.6C. So about a 2C increase through the month.

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With a minimum of 4.7C and maxima likely to reach about 12C, we should see an increase to 5.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.4C to the 7th (10.7) (daily record mean = 10.9C)

6.6C to the 8th (8.0)

7.1C to the 9th (11.0) (daily record mean = 12.4C)

7.2C to the 10th (7.5)

7.0C to the 11th (5.8]

7.0C to the 12th (6.5)

6.9C to the 13th (5.5)

 

A mild first 10 days is likely, but nothing exceptional thanks to the cool nights

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Latest GFS run shows warm days and cold nights for a prolonged period. Could have a very large large of temps this month.

Large range of temps? If so I agree. Not too dissimilar to March 2012 - the average CET min then was 3.7C, the average CET max 12.8C, a range of 9.1C. It's also a massive contrast to March 2013, with a temperature range of just 6C (5.7C and -0.3C) in the CET zone.I'd say that with this settled spell being slightly earlier in the month we may see slightly lower minima but potentially similar maxima to the 2012 spell.A welcome change to the near static temperatures over the last 3 months. Edited by March Blizzard
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Large range of temps? If so I agree. Not too dissimilar to March 2012 - the average CET min then was 3.7C, the average CET max 12.8C, a range of 9.1C. It's also a massive contrast to March 2013, with a temperature range of just 6C (5.7C and -0.3C) in the CET zone.I'd say that with this settled spell being slightly earlier in the month we may see slightly lower minima but potentially similar maxima to the 2012 spell.A welcome change to the near static temperatures over the last 3 months.

Unless you're on the east coast of course. For us its looking like apart from a couple of days we'll keep the same lack of variation in temperatures as the winter.

 

Its always difficult to guess temperatures in these setups so early in the spring though, cloud amounts are near impossible to predict. If the high centres itself in the North Sea it could be quite different compared to if it is a few hundred miles further west.

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With a minimum today of 8.3C, we'd need maxima to average 13.5C in order to equal the daily record high mean of 10.9C. A pretty good chance of achieving that I think, and thus pushing the CET up to 6.3 or 6.4C.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.7C to the 8th (9.0)

7.1C to the 9th (10.6)

7.3C to the 10th (9.0)

7.5C to the 11th (9.9)

7.7C to the 12th (8.9)

7.7C to the 13th (8.5)

7.7C to the 15th (8.0)

 

 

7.7C to the 12th would put us in the top 20 mildest first 12 days of March.

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No daily record then, 0.3C shy (before corrections are applied anyway). The max yesterday was 12.9C on the daily data, seems a bit low to me?

 

I bet the northern stations weren't that high yesterday- Stonyhurst for example wouldn't have recorded much higher than 10C because of the rain in the NW yesterday morning.

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A minimum today of 5.1C and maxima likely to reach the high 15s, we should see an increase to 6.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.1C to the 10th (8.9)

7.2C to the 11th (7.5)

7.2C to the 12th (7.3)

7.2C to the 13th (7.9)

7.4C to the 14th (9.6)

7.6C to the 15th (10.3)

7.8C to the 16th (10.4)

 

Looking like a very mild week is possible. 7.8C by the 16th would be in the top 15 warmest first 16 days of March.

While the minima remain relatively cool, there's little chance of breaking any daily records though.

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