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March 2014 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

6.6c for me please. I've a gut feeling that April will be a cold month this year.

I know this is the March thread, but I agree on April.

 

Many an occasion when a mild winter has been followed by cold Aprils, or at least an April with notably wintry weather - cases in point include

 

April 1975 - wintry spell first half with northerlies after one of the mildest winters on record.

 

April 1981 - notable wintry cold at the end after what was a fairly mild winter.

 

April 1989 - our last sub 7 degree April, very unusual coming on the back of an exceptionally mild winter.

 

April 1995 - though overall not cold it did feature a couple of potent northerly attacks, again coming on the back of a very mild wet winter.

 

April 1998 - a wintry easter period with much frost on the back of a very mild winter.

 

April 99 and 00 produced potent northerlies again on the back of two mild winters.

 

April 05 managed a potent northerly on the back of another very mild winter on the whole.

 

April 08 - potent snowy northerly at the start again on the back of a very mild winter.

 

We have see a run of quite different Marches and Aprils in the last 3 years.

 

March 2012 one of the mildest on record, followed by the coldest of the last 100 years.

April 2011 the mildest on record, followed by one of the wettest in 2012, followed by a cold one last year.

 

Spring always a surprise from one year to the next.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

7.0 for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

8.2c please

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I know this is the March thread, but I agree on April.

 

Many an occasion when a mild winter has been followed by cold Aprils, or at least an April with notably wintry weather - cases in point include

...

April 1990 as well- it began and ended notably warm but there was a cold snap later in the first week which brought snow showers to northern and western Britain and in parts of the south the spell featured the coldest night of the year, resulting in damaging frosts following the mild winter and warm March.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

6.4 please.

 

 

Looking at the Ensemble means I just cant justify going for a sustained Northerly outbreak, there just isn't support.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Hah, you've decided to revert back to your old name now? They'll be no Feb 2014 blizzard that's for sure - especially since there's only 15 minutes left of it! Posted Image

 

 

Yes, what happened was I typed the actual swear word in thinking lettucing would come up but the actual swear word came up, I panicked although I was somethinging myself with laughter, then realised you could change it twice in a month, not once, I changed it quickly to Lettucing as im already on thin ice, but although Jan 1987 was the best cold spell ever, the comedown when I went back to school was more agonising, I somehow felt fulfilled after feb 1991 going back to school, a bit smug after predicting a long holiday well before the snow occurred, hence my best memory and hence my username, just got frustrated and changed it, anyhow, cold end to March and beginning to April my bet.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Cool story. How come you're on thin ice anyway?

 

Banned from model thread already after letting my frustrations get the better of me.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I will post that table of entries that usually appears near the deadline, but maybe over the weekend, as it seems that the short month has caught a few by surprise. I am usually near the middle of page five when I do the table, this month just into page four.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Going by xcweather, it looks like the minimum today is around -0.5C while maxima were around 8C, so something close to 3.7C for the first day of March.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

 

4.6C to the 2nd (5.5)

4.2C to the 3rd (3.4)

4.2C to the 4th (4.3)

4.6C to the 5th (6.2)

5.2C to the 6th (8,1)

6.1C to the 7th (11.8] (record high daily mean = 10.9C)

6.9C to the 8th (12.2) (record high daily mean = 12.2C)

 

Potential for some exceptionally mild conditions late next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

Going by xcweather, it looks like the minimum today is around -0.5C while maxima were around 8C, so something close to 3.7C for the first day of March. After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at 4.6C to the 2nd (5.5)4.2C to the 3rd (3.4)4.2C to the 4th (4.3)4.6C to the 5th (6.2)5.2C to the 6th (8,1)6.1C to the 7th (11.8] (record high daily mean = 10.9C)6.9C to the 8th (12.2) (record high daily mean = 12.2C) Potential for some exceptionally mild conditions late next week.

So a sub-zero minimum averaged across the CET zone right off the bat for March. Do you know what the lowest daily CET minima was for the winter just gone, BFTV?I reckon we will avoid any date records within the next 7-8 days, but that's just a hunch.
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