Manchester Winter Index to hit a new low?

[Weather-history]

That would probably be better, although getting a negative mean maximum in this country would take some doing!

Yes pretty academic to be honest. Even 1962-63 on the index is 501 here.I have been asked the point before and my answer is that a -ve index is more severe than a +ve one. The higher the +ve, the more severe it is, the smaller the -ve, the more severe it is still.But we are never going to see a -ve maximum mean in this country for a period of 92 days.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A good spot by Interitus, which I hadn't previously considered.

 

I don't think it represents a significant problem with the index for Manchester (or anywhere else in lowland Britain) because even our coldest winters aren't cold enough to distort the figures significantly, but it would become a problem if we were to apply it to somewhere like Braemar.  So something to bear in mind, but not a significant flaw in the index itself given that it was originally devised for Manchester.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Nick L]

Yeah I think generally it's a pretty good representation rather than temperature alone. If someone wants to start an "alternative" index using Kelvin or one that is linear, I would be interested to see how past results would differ.

[johnholmes]

Yes pretty academic to be honest. Even 1962-63 on the index is 501 here.I have been asked the point before and my answer is that a -ve index is more severe than a +ve one. The higher the +ve, the more severe it is, the smaller the -ve, the more severe it is still.But we are never going to see a -ve maximum mean in this country for a period of 92 days.

 

very true it seems to me, can anyone show that the index shown by WH would not work with -ve values?

[Interitus]

very true it seems to me, can anyone show that the index shown by WH would not work with -ve values?

 

Well of course it 'works', but as pointed out in some circumstances the values don't allow easy comparison - a temperature of 0.1°C will have a score ten times more than 1°C. Suppose the formula was applied to the colder uplands of this country or indeed colder foreign winters, the hypothetical example above gives a continuous scale eg for the temperatures 0.5C, 0C and -0.5C the scores were 85, 100, 117 compared to 50, (+-)infinity, -50. Can only imagine how tricky it would be to graph a location with yearly winter temperatures which hovered either side of 0°C!

This is not criticism of the original idea, but there is merit in extending derived values to compare climates in different locations such as by wind chill, humidex, heat index etc.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Interitus

[Man With Beard]

My local station has had one air frost and a mean of about 6C-7C. I think this means my winter index is about 1.5!

[Weather-history]

Impossible to get above the 1988-89 value.

The least wintriest winter for decades here.

[Weather-history]

No frost, no lying snow, I can't see anything wintry happening rest of day.

I have never experienced a winter so devoid of wintry elements. I reckon least wintry winter since at least WWII

Least wintriest winters of recent times

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another statistic for winter 2013-14 is that, whilst overall it was slightly less mild than 1988-89, 1989-90 and 2006-07, it will be the first time since the daily CET record began in 1772, that no daily CET below 3.0*C has been recorded during any of the months of December, January and February.  Prior to December, there was however, a value of 2.5*C registered for Nov 23rd 2013.  If no day in March beats this, then winter 2013-14 will record the highest minimum daily CET value since the record began in 1772.

 

Winter 2013-14 has certainly been yet another dreadful real stinker of a winter, up there with the horror shows of 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98 and 2006-07.  On top of this winter 2007-08 wasn't much good either.  I think that for most parts of the country winter 1988-89 was devoid of anything remotely wintry, frosts were very few, and there were no really cold days, and the only snowfalls recorded that winter were in late February, and even then many areas saw no snow at all, and in the favoured areas that saw snow, little of it settled and what did was gone in a few hours.  Winter 1989-90 did see a few frosts in late Nov / early December, but after that there was nothing remotely wintry, very little frosts and really cold days, and any rare snowfalls were localised and very short lived.  Winter 1997-98 looks very smilar CETwise overall to 2013-14, but that did see a little snowfall around mid Dec 1997, and a few colder frosty days in late Jan 1998, although that winter, anything remotely wintry was very slim pickings.  Winter 2006-07, although very mild, managed probably the most wintry weather of any of the very mild winters.  A number of areas saw some snowfall in the later part of Jan, and there was a cold frosty week in early Feb, with even a snow event for some, though short lived, and a few cold frosty days in December.  Winter 2007-08 was a bit like 2006-07, although had a longer frosty period in December, and another similar period in mid February, but snowfalls in 07-08 were very few and far between and very short lived.

 

The last five years have produced a number of wintry spells, including the cold winter of 2009-10, and the severe cold spell in Dec 2010, and a cold extended winter in 2012-13 with a number of snow events, plus winter 2008-09 brought a few spells of cold, so the law of averages suggested that this winter wouldn't bring much and be much milder, but on the other hand, the law of averages never suggested that we were due another one of the mildest winters on record and devoid of anything remotely wintry, given the number of these we have had in the last 25 years.  Personally I would have said that a winter on the lines of 2011-12, 2004-05, 2003-04 etc would have fitted with what the law of averages suggested that we were due, but winter 2013-14 instead has just been absolute bile rubbish and a complete pile of pants, and is up there with the horror shows of 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98 etc.

Edited February 28, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[AderynCoch]

No frost, no lying snow, I can't see anything wintry happening rest of day.I have never experienced a winter so devoid of wintry elements. I reckon least wintry winter since at least WWIILeast wintriest winters of recent times2013-14: 71988-89: 202006-07: 211997-98: 251974-75: 261989-90: 261973-74: 301987-88: 372007-08: 371991-92: 401975-76: 411999-00: 421992-93: 432002-03: 441994-95: 451998-99: 472004-05: 472011-12: 472001-02: 502003-04: 50

Well, there's confirmation (if confirmation was needed) of what a poverty of wintry weather there has been for so many of us. I'm sure the rankings for my location can't be significantly different.

 

Absolutely dreadful.