South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

[Snowangel-MK]

No need for a tornado. Imagine your trampoline is like a kind of round sail - the same sort which can shift 30 ton yachts along at 20 knots given the right wind.

Well this one from Aylesbury certainly had a good flight and crash landed in a tree !

[Tom Quintavalle]

Well I dont know about trampolines and goats but I certainly had an interesting journey home last night from Croydon.  

Very squally in Croydon, when I left work but in strong winds the high rise buildings always accentuate the strength of the wind. Got to Bromley around 10.15, at one point virtually got lifted off my feet by one gust. My usual bus didnt turn up, so had to take a different bus that leaves me with around a 20 minute walk from the bus stop to home, which was right into the teeth of the squally winds. There was much debris to be seen, bits of fence,large branches, roadworks strewn around and an assortment of wheelie bins, have to admit to feeling a bit apprehensive, when I passed close to wildly swaying trees and finally reached home just after 11, much to my relief.

 

Noted more damage to fences and some trees on way the into work, this morning, notably around Bickley Point and the stretch between Hayes and Addington Village. The water table at the bottom of Corkscrew Hill has finally given up the ghost and succumbed to flooding of the Rugby pitches, at the spot known locally as Sparrows Den. Was only talking about the flooding there in October 2000 to Biggin, the other day. Even with extensive drainage work carried out since the 2000 flooding, the incredible amount of rainfall we've had in the past 2 months, has inevitably taken it's toll.

 

Hopefully areas throughout the country, that have been so badly affected by flooding, can now  finally get the chance to dry out somewhat, in the next couple of weeks. Let's just hope, as Tamara hinted at in an earlier post, that we dont see the jetstream invigorated again, to the extent that we see more Atlantic missiles launched at us!

 

Tom.

[Mal_UK]

I used to play cricket on Sparrows Den when I was at school at Greenhayes which used to be on the top of Corkscrew Hill before it closed!

[MAF]

Well this one from Aylesbury certainly had a good flight and crash landed in a tree !

image.jpg

'ning all

i was going to suggest a new game last night, but thought it might be in bad taste. was going to call it "pick a tree" simple rules. just pick a tree near you that you would bet on been blown down in the wind... i managed one of the few i picked

been a lovely day today, weather wise, got dog out a few time in the sun and dry. wind not so bad this afternoon and last walk a little while ago was dry and chilly. he loved the sun today

[Tom Quintavalle]

My daughter has just returned home here in Chislehurst, she'd gone with her boyfriend after work today to his place at East Hoathly in E.Sussex, only to find that the area has been without power since 4 a.m, this morning.

 

Tom

[Met4Cast]

Not much news from the south coast on here today but I would imagine going by the Bognor cam last night they took a bit of a battering - this is Brighton seafront where the shingle beach is now on the prom !

image.jpg

 

There's something rather beautiful about that image

[Snowangel-MK]

'weather wise, got dog out a few time in the sun and dry. wind not so bad this afternoon and last walk a little while ago was dry and chilly. he loved the sun today

Evening Mick - glad you got 'Fluffy' out for some nice walkies today :-)

There's something rather beautiful about that image

I'm not sure the people who've got the job of shovelling the shingle back on the beach would feel quite the same about it !

[MAF]

There's something rather beautiful about that image

how did the lower lines fare? worked a few years in brompton barracks and knows it gets affected by the wind there

[john pike]

 

 

these have dropped quite quick over the last week

 

interesting

[MAF]

My daughter has just returned home here in Chislehurst, she'd gone with her boyfriend after work today to his place at East Hoathly in E.Sussex, only to find that the area has been without power since 4 a.m, this morning.

 

Tom

'ning Tom. was power out because overhead lines down? really dont know why power and phone lines are not all underground in this day and age. we have still got quite a few telephone poles in my area. amazing they stand up to the ferocity of the wind sometimes

hello MK

all ok in MK tonight?

[MAF]

...

these have dropped quite quick over the last week

 

interesting

but if sea temps have dropped; will stronger sun temps this time of year negate any effect it may have? asking as i have not a clue

something also crossed my mind today while out and about. with the strong jet we've had, have airline companies saved on fuel and thus reduced carbon output, because the jet has reduced the flight time over the atlantic. or is it evened out because the east-west journey is into the wind?

[Snowangel-MK]

'hello MK :Dall ok in MK tonight?

Hi Mick - all okay here, slight storm damage on the Xscape building and Ronald's but nothing major !

[Met4Cast]

how did the lower lines fare? worked a few years in brompton barracks and knows it gets affected by the wind there

 

A couple of small trees down/broken fence panels but otherwise largely damage free

[Alixzandra]

Not much news from the south coast on here today but I would imagine going by the Bognor cam last night they took a bit of a battering - this is Brighton seafront where the shingle beach is now on the prom !

image.jpg

I can only speak from what I've seen/heard from friends today, I journeyed between Brighton and Lancing and then to Lewes today, Hove Seafront lost a lot of beach huts, Brighton seafront flooded in areas see pics below taken by an artist friend who was down at the arches today cleaning up. A couple trees down behind me, sheds moved in neighbours gardens from one side of the garden to the other. At Lewes centre, The Ouse is still within its banks. We faired a lot better than some on the Coast methinks all in all.

[MAF]

well im glad all of you are ok.

now the burning question tonight is.... how comes my pizza ive just cooked is cold? :lol:

[Tom Quintavalle]

'ning Tom. was power out because overhead lines down? really dont know why power and phone lines are not all underground in this day and age. we have still got quite a few telephone poles in my area. amazing they stand up to the ferocity of the wind sometimes

hello MK

all ok in MK tonight?

 

Sorry Mick, they really dont know!

 

Tom.

[john pike]

but if sea temps have dropped; will stronger sun temps this time of year negate any effect it may have? asking as i have not a clue

something also crossed my mind today while out and about. with the strong jet we've had, have airline companies saved on fuel and thus reduced carbon output, because the jet has reduced the flight time over the atlantic. or is it evened out because the east-west journey is into the wind?

 

but if sea temps have dropped; will stronger sun temps this time of year negate any effect it may have? asking as i have not a clue

something also crossed my mind today while out and about. with the strong jet we've had, have airline companies saved on fuel and thus reduced carbon output, because the jet has reduced the flight time over the atlantic. or is it evened out because the east-west journey is into the wind?

 

hi maf

 

sun wont effect sea temps yet

 

too low in output

 

the colder these get the better chance the jet will weaken

 

or shift further north

 

notice gfs tonight at 192 which is about as far as you can go with this model

 

precip at 192

 

 

now at 204

 

 

see when it hits lower resolution it explodes the precipitation on there

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=2

 

to my eyes that change looks unlikely

[<<Ryan>>]

Normally school holidays are always raining and during school time its nicer! This time it's the other way round

[MAF]

hi maf

 

sun wont effect sea temps yet

 

too low in output

 

the colder these get the better chance the jet will weaken

 

or shift further north

 

see when it hits lower resolution it explodes the precipitation on there

 

to my eyes that change looks unlikely

yep, and now i suppose we should stop looking for cold and concentrate on spring. which can be a very wet season

[snowrye]

hi peeps,hope everyone is ok and escaped without too much damage,picked up the capt from a container ship,which is docked at Rye Wharf,earlier,who told me they recorded a gust of 82 mph last night,and thats in port,must have been awful in the channel.

[john pike]

yep, and now i suppose we should stop looking for cold and concentrate on spring. which can be a very wet season

no concentrate first on losing these storms incoming

 

remember last march

 

cannot rule something like that again at present

[MAF]

hi peeps,hope everyone is ok and escaped without too much damage,picked up the capt from a container ship,which is docked at Rye Wharf,earlier,who told me they recorded a gust of 82 mph last night,and thats in port,must have been awful in the channel.

and deepest condolences to those who lost loved ones, and thankfully it was not as bad as perhaps it could have been

 

no concentrate first on losing these storms incoming

 

remember last march

 

cannot rule something like that again at present

yep i remember, and know we may not breathe easy for a while yet. so hoping the change in jet will give some respite, even if it means a return to "normal" weather for the UK

 

night all:D

[john pike]

hi maf

 

thats what im looking for

 

we need some sort of change so i can fix my roof

 

nite mate

[Snowangel-MK]

well im glad all of you are ok. :)now the burning question tonight is.... how comes my pizza ive just cooked is cold? :lol:

Was the oven on or just the light in the oven to thaw it out ? Lol only kidding as I know your a good cook really ;-)

[john pike]

ecm 12z ensembles

 

temps

 

 

19th and 20th a fair spread there

 

wind

 

 

so much spread from the 20th i cannot call this at present

 

rain

 

 

fi on the 20th

 

gfs blue run looks to be overdoing the rain by these

 

by the 21st a big difference there

 

towards the end of the run

 

some ensembles show mainly dry

 

others show too much rain

 

all in all after the 20th is anyones guess