South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

[chilly milly]

Given the contamination, not into the mains supply, I trust, which is what most people seem to use to wash their cars, and would thus only add more water. I see your point about evaporation and transpiration, although the latter's not going to be that substantial at this time of year. 

 

It's a pity we can't utilise it in some way. All that free water going to waste.  I have an urge to build a water mill now and generate my own electricity.

[abruzzi spur]

We had bamboo in our front garden which was here when we moved it.  It's gone now, but the thing was a bloody menace.  It came up in all different parts of the garden away from the big bush, and started shooting in our neighbours too.  And it grew so thick and fast, if you didn't keep on top of it, it would block the path completely.  It was too big to dig our and we had it professionally removed.  Wouldn't grow it again unless I had a 'big' garden.

 

So, am I right in thinking more rain at the weekend?  I was really hoping to get out in the back garden for a tidy up then. 

Hi Chilly

 

We've got some black stem bamboo in massive pots and that's the only way really to keep it in check - it looks great but does need a bit of watering in the dry times (whatever that means!)  I agree that I wouldn't plant it out unless I owned most of China.

 

AS

[chilly milly]

Hi Chilly

 

We've got some black stem bamboo in massive pots and that's the only way really to keep it in check - it looks great but does need a bit of watering in the dry times (whatever that means!)  I agree that I wouldn't plant it out unless I owned most of China.

 

AS

 

 

 I can't believe that when I first bought the house, I thought it looked rather pretty.  I guess kept in check it is.

[john pike]

right heres the later fax charts

 

lets see if we can find the press rain deluge tonight

 

lets do saturday night

 

rain

 

 

 

 

looks like a gusty south west wind

 

but if you have a spare thimble you would still have room left with that rain

 

sunday

 

 

granted a strong south west wind

 

40-50 mph and maybe a 60 on coasts

 

rainfall

 

 

 

 

there will be the odd shower but no deluge

 

overnight

 

 

again looks mainly dry

 

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monday

 

breezy south west wind

 

but a lot less strength than sunday

 

rain again

 

 

some showers around but not too heavy

 

 

 

again a few sharp showers but no deluge showing there

 

tuesday may see a burst of heavier rain but to me that is fi

 

these may change tomorrow but at present not looking that bad rain wise

 

just maybe need to keep an eye on the wind for sunday for now

[Rendaridra]

That ground anomaly reminds me of the old films with quicksand in them...I definitely wouldn't be jumping around on them!

[stun12]

At the moment, I'm not sure places like Staines have that option. That castle is one of my favourite buildings on the planet.

 

Agree entirely that already wet places are impossible...anyway, it was always something of a tongue-in-cheek theory. Bodiam Castle is just so castle-y. And designed as such as it never had much in the way of defensive or military qualities, but was built mainly as a vanity project. And very splendid it is too. Frequently used for history documentaries, one of which features Mrs stun12 chasing an escaped and camera-inquisitive retriever.

[abruzzi spur]

right heres the later fax charts

 

lets see if we can find the press rain deluge tonight

 

lets do saturday night

 

rain

 

 

 

 

looks like a gusty south west wind

 

but if you have a spare thimble you would still have room left with that rain

 

sunday

 

 

granted a strong south west wind

 

40-50 mph and maybe a 60 on coasts

 

rainfall

 

 

 

 

there will be the odd shower but no deluge

 

overnight

 

 

again looks mainly dry

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

breezy south west wind

 

but a lot less strength than sunday

 

rain again

 

 

some showers around but not too heavy

 

 

 

again a few sharp showers but no deluge showing there

 

tuesday may see a burst of heavier rain but to me that is fi

 

these may change tomorrow but at present not looking that bad rain wise

 

just maybe need to keep an eye on the wind for sunday for now

John I am sorry to have to tell you that your contract with the Daily Express has been terminated with immediate effect.  Please collect your belongings on the way out and make sure you remove all traces of your balanced and mature forecasts as I don't want them corrupting our people. I'm sorry it didn't work out here but your refusal to forecast Armageddon has made your position untenable.  I am prepared to give you a reference as follows:  "John Pike has consistently failed to adhere to the ethos of our newspaper.  He regularly tried to inform people of the realities, was knowledgeable, kind, witty, and generous with his time and input.  He was popular and respected.  For all of these reasons we had to let him go as there is no place for that sort of maverick within our organisation".

[Crepuscular Ray]

Agree entirely that already wet places are impossible...anyway, it was always something of a tongue-in-cheek theory. Bodiam Castle is just so castle-y. And designed as such as it never had much in the way of defensive or military qualities, but was built mainly as a vanity project. And very splendid it is too. Frequently used for history documentaries, one of which features Mrs stun12 chasing an escaped and camera-inquisitive retriever.

And, as far as I'm aware it's got the earliest still-existing example of a crest featuring six martlets. 

 

I'm amazed it doesn't flood that often, given that it's relatively near the bottom of the valley and there isn't much difference in height between the top of the moat and the river and the ground level's only a foot or so higher than that.

 

That sounds like a very funny film.

[john pike]

hi as

 

quality

 

thanks mate

[lassie23]

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Mar 2014 to Thursday 20 Mar 2014: met office

Current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting for much of this period but not to the same severity as we have seen recently. The most likely scenario would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see longer spells of drier and brighter weather than previous weeks, although still with some periods of rain. Temperatures are likely to be close to the seasonal average with colder periods possible between weather systems. This will maintain the risk of some frosty and icy nights, and also some hill snow, especially in the north.

Updated: 1134 on Wed 19 Feb 2014

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

average

 

to turning colder 28th on

 

note the cold ensembles still there tonight

 

wind

 

 

see the uplift for sunday which is expected

 

big split on the 26th there

 

rain

 

 

still struggling where all this rain is coming from

 

26th onwards the express has taken control of gfs

 

pretty plain the 26th has a split so thats fi again

 

will post gfs ensembles later and may sneak a ramp chart in just for fun

[Ruthie]

Hi all. Just popped to patio to refill the bird water dish - can u believe - anyway the sky is orange here. Live in a park so not so much light pollution, but also it smells sweet outside, really odd odour! Unless it's just my over sensitive nose, could be.

Very mild, and starting to drizzle.

No planes over head tonight, nice respite.

[abruzzi spur]

and may sneak a ramp chart in just for fun

 Maybe I've been a touch too hasty

[john pike]

ha ha

 

as

 

thats for the daily inexcess

Edited February 19, 2014 by john pike

[lassie23]

Hi all. Just popped to patio to refill the bird water dish - can u believe - anyway the sky is orange here. Live in a park so not so much light pollution, but also it smells sweet outside, really odd odour! Unless it's just my over sensitive nose, could be.Very mild, and starting to drizzle.No planes over head tonight, nice respite.

9.6c in london, orange sky, must look stunning

[Nick F]

A rather mild 9.4C at 11.20pm here in south London, courtesy of the southerly winds. Haven't put the heating on all day, and still kept a constant 20-21C indoors, saving on the heating the upside of this mild winter.

 

Nice to see the sun these last few days, not looking pleasant next week as the jet cranks up again, with a succession of lows likely to bring windier and wetter weather for our region.

[john pike]

hi nick

 

gfs has been a wild outlier on this check the london ecm ensembles

 

i reckon thats being overplayed personally

 

anyway time will tell on that

[Alixzandra]

Bodium Castle is beautiful, took this 3 years ago on our visit. Went over the bridge to the train station, everyone in 40's dress, lovely place. I recall the Trust guide saying the portcullis here is one of the highest in operation.

[Nick F]

hi nick

 

gfs has been a wild outlier on this check the london ecm ensembles

 

i reckon thats being overplayed personally

 

anyway time will tell on that

 

Let's hope so, though EC is much less developmental than GFS, GEM, JMA and even UKMO as far as it goes. GFS ops have done quite well at handling the Atlantic lows recently, so any upsurge in Atlantic activity it shows I take worrying note of in light of recent problems.

[Jax]

not been  out since last so previous report holds true.

[john pike]

Let's hope so, though EC is much less developmental than GFS, GEM, JMA and even UKMO as far as it goes. GFS ops have done quite well at handling the Atlantic lows recently, so any upsurge in Atlantic activity it shows I take worrying note of in light of recent problems.

 

hi nick

 

i know what you mean

 

but gfs has such an atlantic default i am ignoring this for now

 

at present i am thinking ecm route

 

i may be wrong but fi and all that so who knows?

Edited February 19, 2014 by john pike

[Jax]

heading off to bed soon. but have you tube on so very distracted again.

[lassie23]

Bodium Castle is beautiful, took this 3 years ago on our visit. Went over the bridge to the train station, everyone in 40's dress, lovely place. I recall the Trust guide saying the portcullis here is one of the highest in operation.

Bodiam Castle is a 14th-century moated castle near Robertsbridge in East Sussex, England. It was built in 1385 by Sir Edward Dalyngrigge, a former knight of Edward III, with the permission of Richard II, ostensibly to defend the area against French invasion during the Hundred Years' War. Of quadrangular plan, Bodiam Castle has no keep, having its various chambers built around the outer defensive walls and inner courts. Its corners and entrance are marked by towers, and topped by crenellations. Its structure, details and situation in an artificial watery landscape indicate that display was an important aspect of the castle's design as well as defence. It was the home of the Dalyngrigge family and the centre of the manor of Bodiam.

Possession of Bodiam Castle passed through several generations of Dalyngrigges, until their line became extinct, when the castle passed by marriage to the Lewknor family. During the Wars of the Roses, Sir Thomas Lewknor supported the House of Lancaster, and when Richard III of the House of York became king in 1483, a force was despatched to besiege Bodiam Castle. It is unrecorded whether the siege went ahead, but it is thought that Bodiam was surrendered without much resistance. The castle was confiscated, but returned to the Lewknors when Henry VII of the House of Lancaster became king in 1485. Descendants of the Lewknors owned the castle until at least the 16th century.

By the start of the English Civil War in 1641, Bodiam Castle was in the possession of John Tufton. He supported the Royalist cause, and sold the castle to help pay fines levied against him by Parliament. The castle was subsequently dismantled, and was left as a picturesque ruin until its purchase by John Fuller in 1829. Under his auspices, the castle was partially restored before being sold to George Cubitt, 1st Baron Ashcombe, and later to Lord Curzon, both of whom undertook further restoration work. The castle is protected as a Grade I listed building and Scheduled Monument. It has been owned by The National Trust since 1925, donated by Lord Curzon on his death, and is open to the public.

[john pike]

gfs control run hinting at high pressure again in the later stages

 

 

not overly warm but looks dry

 

i am sure a few people would like something like this

 

fi though so cannot be confident of this

[Snowangel-MK]

I've seen something extraordinary on a video tonight, I’ve never even heard of it before ... glacier calving