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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Quicky from me (oh god)

DO NOT let the guard down yet. The next round is nearer than you think. Looks like I've already won my windiest feb on record bet (750 quid in my pocket)

I'm recieving technical assistance on last weds storm, I recorded 99.2mph before the anemometer and pole were destroyed.

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The spread for next week trending to concerningly lower pressure, there were a fair few higher options in the mix prior to the weekend:

post-2595-0-64184100-1392638031_thumb.pn

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Weather presenters on bbc saying that this week won't be as wet and nowhere near as stormy.  Too early a call?  I think so, 06GFS showing IMO what may be heading our way and I think that the feature back end of the week [yep same period I've been on about] could be a lot more lively than they suggest. We are from out of the woods yet. 

 

BFTP  

 

I hope they aren't leading people into a false sense of security, there's a Met Office warning for rain for the flood hit SW today and no mention? You'd think a calm settled period was coming up, instead of something like this

 

Posted Image

Looks like more of the same but perhaps without the hurricane force superstorms, don't need them for significant problems though.

Edited by Bobby
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No respite for the flooded areas this week, more rain exacerbating the already critical situation, thursday looks very rainy but with perhaps the north most in the firing line as a wave feature runs along the front enhancing the rain even more and slowing it's progress eastwards..one to watch.Posted Image

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No respite for the flooded areas this week, more rain exacerbating the already critical situation, thursday looks very rainy but with perhaps the north most in the firing line as a wave feature runs along the front enhancing the rain even more and slowing it's progress eastwards..one to watch.Posted Image

Posted Image Morning all ,well todays charts are showing yet more rain and zonal weather .but i think every run this week will show big changes as lows develope out in the atlantic and head towards our  Magnet of an island .nothing big showing  yet but real Potential for secondery lows to form and looking to our east n/east with pressure there possibly rising fronts could stall with time .Im off to see the bank manager for a loan to start building Boats Posted Image on second thoughts i may invest in a bulk load of Sledges ready for next winter .Posted Image

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It's really hard keeping up with the huge interest in today's models and the thousands online waiting for the snow to start by a lamp post near you...sadly..that was last march / april I was fondly remembering... what we have and will continue to have is just a less extreme but still very unsettled version of the weather of the last 3 months, i.e..largely frostless and snowless unless you are at munro level on the piste in scotland through this week, at least it's mild but thursday looks like a write off with more rain and gales, then by the end of the week it will probably turn cooler and more showery but then becoming milder, wet & windy again next week, scotland probably the exception to the mild story, rather cooler up there for much of the time, especially the further north you go, with a risk of overnight frosts at times and wintry ppn at munro.

Edited by Frosty.
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Another excellent post from Tamara the reading and learning seems to be paying dividends. The 06z certainly should ring some alarm bells let’s hope the 12s tell a different story, if nothing else the 06z demonstrates why the METO are usually reticent about predictions more than two or three days ahead.

 

I see Japan has managed a drop of the white stuff.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26222457

Edited by weather eater
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Well the 12z has toned down Thursday’s system somewhat but both the GFS and the UKMO look wet, breezy with a train of low pressure systems bearing down on the UK for the foreseeable. An unneeded watery disaster as if we haven’t already had plenty of that already, I don’t think I can remember a winter quite like it and I’ve seen a few.

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A big change in the fax chart for thursday issued this evening compared to last night's.

 

today..  last night..

 

 

Sunshine and showers has been replaced by something much more unpleasant.

 

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It really is a very tedious and boring spell of weather most of us are having. (2 months of the same old rubbish)I know it will go down in the record books but I just can't get excited about copius rainfall totals.And as Phil said in the moaning thread - It is what it is but how many different ways can we discuss the same stormy Atlantic set up in the Model thread?Can someone please wake me up when some of the charts below start showing up? These are taken from the CFS which is about as useful as a concrete trampoline.We can but hope.Cheers.

Looks fiery! Ahh those winds will be carrying a scent of barbecue on them if it does come off, a big IF! Although it will be hugely welcomed :)

Meanwhile, some more nasty weather to contend with :(

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Oh I certainly don't get excited about it either Mr frost, in fact I hate it but it is very noteworthy nonetheless and the ECM follows suit a couple of dryer days and then more rain, Thursday into Friday, has anyone got any spare timber I'm thinking of building an ark.

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Well just clicked through the GEFS precipitation chart and in FI, this.

Posted Image

 

Precipitation in FI, nuts correct? Theory, why show this if cold air is not around? Interesting times into March. Might get rid of the boredom.

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Looking for ways out of the pattern ... it occurs to me the way out, as things stand, is far more likely to be something spring-like than winter-like (we're only 11 days from March, after all!)

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

Tonight's ECM shows the South-East having a milder couple of days next week - a little westward shift and perhaps 12C to 15C if the sun gets through? Would be very welcome down here after the time we've had.

 

Having said all that, the threat of storms is never far away on any chart tonight. NW areas most likely to be in the direct firing line over the next 10 days but Thursday could see strong winds and rain just about anywhere, the ECM again being the alternative showing rain but not as much wind.

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Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAGEM and ECM plus ensemble data and Jet Stream report from that available, the report taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a weakening Low pressure moving into the West of the UK with the rain of today in the west making it's way Eastwards while becoming much lighter generally. A weak Westerly flow is then shown through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and drier spells for many but with a lot of cloud. Later on Wednesday and Thursday winds will increase with cloud and rain spreading in from the west through Wednesday night and lasting into Thursday before a strong westerly flow brings showers or longer spells of rain across all areas through the period Thursday to Saturday with a ridge of High pressure moving quickly East over the UK later on Saturday with a drier interlude for all later in the day.
 
GFS then shows Sunday as another day when SW winds will be increasing with cloud and rain spreading across from the West through the day. Through the rest of the run the weather remains very mobile in a strong and gusty SW flow with rain or showers at times and strong winds too always between South and West.
 
UKMO shows a mild SW flow to close it's run next Monday with cloudy skies and rain or drizzle at times and with a cold front approaching from the West by Tuesday heavier rain will be on the horizon.
 
GEM has very unsettled weather continuing with the same SW flow as UKMO at 144hrs with Low pressure to the North maintaining spells of rain and showers at times for all in brisk Westerly winds.
 
NAVGEM has a mild SW flow too early next week with increasingly wet weather expected as pressure falls and troughs cross steadily NE over the UK with spells of rain and strong winds increasing with time.
 
ECM tonight also has the SW'ly to start next week but the operational has higher pressure over Europe with the worst of the rain affecting the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas while seeing some rain have longer dry spells in between.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts suggest a rather suspect operational tonight as the mean follows the pattern of the last week maintaining a preference to keep Low pressure close to the NW of the UK with SW winds carrying rain bearing fronts and showers overall areas at times.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of temperatures close to average with rain at times in mild SW winds. There remains little evidence of a major pattern shift anytime soon.
 
 
The Jet Stream continues to show a generally weaker feed across the Atlantic and the UK this week before it strengthens again next week in a sine wave pattern.
 
 
In Summary tonight there remains little overall change tonight in what we have been seeing over recent days. There doesn't look like being a repeat of the recent powerful storms though windy weather will still be likely with rain at times for all in generally mild conditions considering the time of year.
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OMG we have been on page 11 since 11.48 am..this is a crisis guysPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image we need to sit down around the table and discuss what's so naff about the models that nobody can be bothered to post herePosted Image

 

 

Perhaps we lesser mortals have been put off posting on it. My little Johnny Winter joke yesterday for example. A photo and a one liner - which I hoped would lighten the mood gone after 10 minutes. We can read Tamara and John Pike on our regional thread.

 

And while that PV is where it is, nothing much will change whatever the models say.

Edited by Iceni
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It really is a very tedious and boring spell of weather most of us are having. (2 months of the same old rubbish)I know it will go down in the record books but I just can't get excited about copius rainfall totals. And as Phil said in the moaning thread - It is what it is but how many different ways can we discuss the same stormy Atlantic set up in the Model thread?Can someone please wake me up when some of the charts below start showing up? These are taken from the CFS which as most of us know is about as useful as a concrete trampoline. We can but hope. Cheers.

Is the cfs charts drawn up by mr madden by any chance? The cfs has regularly shown severe siberian icy blasts for the uk this winter but my memory of this winter paints a sorry story of mud, floods and hurricane force winds..me thinks the cfs is a bad joke.
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The NH FI synoptics are beginning to settle down and that includes a great big Russian High. At T240 the three main models:

 

ECMpost-14819-0-55781800-1392706754_thumb.g GEM: post-14819-0-78357600-1392706770_thumb.p GFSpost-14819-0-19325500-1392706806_thumb.p

 

Along with the Alaskan/Pacific Ridge this has an effect of channeling the PV back to our NW. That is the retained pattern of this zonal winter. That Russian High develops from the upcoming weekend as high pressure slips South from the pole.

 

The UK surface features from this setup is highlighted by the mean:

 

D5: post-14819-0-97061600-1392707327_thumb.p  The less stormy zonal flow.

 

D7: post-14819-0-94364100-1392707354_thumb.p The Russian high edges in from the east, too far away to bring cold but enough for the Atlantic flow to trend SW-NE.

 

D10:  post-14819-0-40589700-1392706938_thumb.p Russian high still on the scene but being slowly pushed back east as the Atlantic runs over the top of the high and the pattern flattens again.

 

T300 op: post-14819-0-47788300-1392707547_thumb.p Back to zonal. And by 6th March: post-14819-0-40027500-1392707584_thumb.p mean: post-14819-0-29071700-1392707696_thumb.p

 

Some variation from the GEFS, but only a couple at the end of FI supporting a colder set up. The position of the Russian high appears to dictate where the energy from the PV travels, but an Atlantic flow still the majority cluster. The cool down after D10 remains, London ens:

 

post-14819-0-54241700-1392707915_thumb.g But that is nothing of note.

 

The CFS March anomalies continue with the above pattern: post-14819-0-51070900-1392708090_thumb.p  post-14819-0-46057100-1392708000_thumb.p

 

Low heights to the NW and higher heights towards Russia. A classic zonal flow with temps average to just below normal.

 

My thoughts remain that this setup looks locked in till mid March at least though there will be variations on the Atlantic theme. No sign of a HLB in our NH sector though background noise remains for pressure rises to favour the south (though of a transient nature).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Ecmwf 00z op run is very unsettled throughout with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed by clearer, cooler and showery days and the occasional drier and brighter day with a touch of frost but generally, temperatures look close to average but sometimes on the mild side across the southern half of the uk...T+240 hours shows a trough digging southeast with a cold anticyclonic block to the north east which to me indicates the potential for an undercut. For the time being though I really can't see much respite for the areas hardest hit by flooding and storms, the ecm shows some powerful depressions with heavy showers and more persistent rain with some very windy spells during the next 7-10 days.

post-4783-0-01576700-1392711186_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-29702800-1392711201_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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GFS, and it's buddies, UKMO and ECMWF, are eager to continue to break the hearts of those after something drier, or something cold and/or snowy. The Canadian Polar Vortex looks to continue to go on a rampage by flinging further Atlantic Lows towards the UK (albeit they do look mostly concentrated to the North-West of the UK with higher pressure mostly concentrated to our South and East). Although many areas of the UK are likely to become raided by further wet weather with rain and showers, some drier interludes do look possible, especially to the South-East where the pressure is not quite as low. The wind should be less powerful than it has been with many models showing the Low Pressure systems to be less intense (this, off course, could still change though and some people did mention some of the Lows could still turn out to become more monstrous than they are now).

Also attached the 144 hour outlooks from the ECMWF, GFS and UKMO charts below and shows the usual theme we're likely to continue to head in: Lows to our North-West, High Pressure to our, South, South-East or East with a flow between the South-West and North-West. But... there does seem to be some possible hints that High Pressure to our East might try and stall Low Pressure systems a little bit further Westwards (and probably attempt to align the Jet-Stream in a South-West to North-East direction). However, with those continued string of Atlantic Lows the European High has to contend with, it may struggle to back for enough Westwards to be particularly influential towards the UK. That Western Greenland Polar Vortex could do with being terminated! (if you've had enough of the wind and rain).

post-10703-0-20706400-1392708798_thumb.j

post-10703-0-57367600-1392708820_thumb.j

post-10703-0-89424100-1392708843_thumb.j

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