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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 15th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show yesterday's storm now well away to the NE with a weak ridge crossing the UK tomorrow giving a dry night and day tomorrow with some welcome sunshine and light winds. Later tomorrow the weather deteriorates again as cloud and rain attached to a weaker Low pressure than of late spreads in from the West to give a cloudy and damp day in the West on Monday before the weather improves again on Tuesday and much of Wednesday as a weak ridge crosses from the West.
 
GFS then shows a more vigorous Low pressure system crossing Southern Britain soon after midweek with wind and rain for all followed by a changeable remainder of the run with rain at times in winds from a mostly SW direction giving generally milder conditions later.
 
UKMO looks menacing at the end of it's output tonight with a small but vigorous Low crossing Northern Britain with gales and heavy rain sweeping East across Britain with temperatures close to average before colder and showery weather follows as the Low pressure moves out into the North Sea.
 
GEM shows a very windy and sometimes very wet period as winds between South and West carry spells of rain and showers across all areas through the latter period of the run.
 
NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times in temperatures close to average overall.
 
ECM tonight is also a little disturbing as after a brief respite next week we appear to be falling down the path of a return to deeply unsettled, windy and wet weather across all areas before the end of next weekend.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts show little change from this morning's with Low pressure in control of the UK weather with SW winds and spells of rain and showers, probably heaviest towards the West of the UK in temperatures largely close to average.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles tonight show an unsettled period maintained throughout tonight's output. The temperatures will remain close to average for many but it could become rather mild in the South for a day or two while throughout there will be rain at times almost everywhere.
 
 
The Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow will remain fairly consistent within it's current location while strengthening somewhat again after a lull next week.
 
In Summary there appears to be growing trends shown between the outputs of the UK slipping back into a very unsettled and windy period with rain and strong winds featuring heavily again after a brief period of less unsettled conditions. With a fairly strong jet flow re-emerging again later next week the catalyst is their for some powerful depressions to affect the UK once more with the North and West and probably including the SW too for some more disruptive rainfall and severe gales.
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Well I have been speaking of a signal and anticipation I had/have of stormy weather returning backend of next week, even when models were toying with possible block developing to our N/NE.  UKMO very much latching onto this and I suspect it'll be a lively period and may be yet again impactual.

 

Posted Image  

 

A period to watch for.

 

BFTP

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Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 15th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
 
In Summary there appears to be growing trends shown between the outputs of the UK slipping back into a very unsettled and windy period with rain and strong winds featuring heavily again after a brief period of less unsettled conditions. With a fairly strong jet flow re-emerging again later next week the catalyst is their for some powerful depressions to affect the UK once more with the North and West and probably including the SW too for some more disruptive rainfall and severe gales.

 

 

 

Agree with the above summary.

On the anomaly charts, after a few days on the 6-10 versions showing some sign of blocking but never on the 8-14, all of them are now showing a similar pattern. Strong westerly atlantic flow with a diffluent trough close by, mainly west of the UK. This suggests that indeed the surface features could be fairly deep ones. Really the only difference between those shown tonight/today and 2 weeks agao is that the Canadian vortex has no marked eastward extension into the Atlantic.

Edited by johnholmes
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ECM mean at day 10, NAEFS mean on the last day of Feb

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Have held off saying it but now with 12 days left... winter's over? Probably fair to say unless it can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the dying days to salvage something. It sure has been... interesting anyway.

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ECM mean at day 10, NAEFS mean on the last day of Feb

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Have held off saying it but now with 12 days left... winter's over? Probably fair to say unless it can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the dying days to salvage something. It sure has been... interesting anyway.

well Bobby i think u could be rite. I think it's time to raze the white flag and grasefully hand victory to the pv and the jet. Looking at the outputs across the bord it does look unsettel 1way or another and hardly inspiring. Gibby's report and j.h's 500mb charts says it all really and sums up this winter.
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  well Bobby i think u could be rite. I think it's time to raze the white flag and grasefully hand victory to the pv and the jet. Looking at the outputs across the bord it does look unsettel 1way or another and hardly inspiring. Gibby's report and j.h's 500mb charts says it all really and sums up this winter.

 

Maybe March will deliver our Winter once again ?

 

Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Anyone looking for a change in pattern in the medium term just have to look at the D10 charts to know there is currently no sign. In fact the pattern looks like it could stretch into Mid-March.

 

ECMpost-14819-0-46319000-1392536109_thumb.g  GEM: post-14819-0-87851500-1392536121_thumb.p GFSpost-14819-0-33344600-1392536134_thumb.p

 

The PV over to our NW looks as strong as all Winter and although the GFS has it more relaxed, its mean is more in line with the other models:

 

post-14819-0-83925400-1392536223_thumb.p

 

By D16 on the GEFS about 50% have the PV over NE Canada and the rest have it on the move. This does allow a slacker flow for these with some showing transient ridging, some with a UK trough and some with a less zonal Atlantic, along with the more zonal fare. Later stages of FI doesn't look mild, mainly average to cool:

 

post-14819-0-54928300-1392536629_thumb.g  post-14819-0-79523600-1392536640_thumb.p post-14819-0-44415900-1392536672_thumb.p

 

Last night's ECM for London is more graphic in that return to a more average/cooler spell: post-14819-0-23845700-1392536962_thumb.g

 

No sign of blocking yet (4th March) to herald a late wintry spell.

 

Next 8 days total rainfall suggests spells of rain incoming but not as potent as of late: post-14819-0-27381000-1392537188_thumb.g

 

Monday and Thursday are the wet days with a warm front then a cold front respectively spreading east. The latter drags in some colder uppers so western areas on Friday may see some wintry showers. Then we have that brief milder spell next weekend, for a few days, and then the cooling from D10-15.

 

Run of the mill February fare upcoming then. Hopefully this will be of some use to the flooded area.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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morning all the wind  might have gone but the rain still keep coming!!  and deep in to fantasy world  march  could be the start of our winter!!  suggest from the east  some  heavy  snow!!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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GEFS ensembles for T144 show a bit of a mix but generally troughing near or over the UK, so expect rain to be around next weekend. Or snow...many of these ensembles are showing a small block around Iceland which might be enough to filter cold from the east into Northern areas of the UK, at least for a time:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

 

Something to watch amidst the general pattern of Atlantic depressions continuing to dominate?

 

Additionally, ECM this morning better for the SE in the mid-term, it builds a much better ridge for next weekend and may even keep rains at bay for a couple more days -

Posted Image

though somewhere (maybe western areas) may get stuck under a slow moving front for a considerable amount of time:

Posted Image

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GFS 00z isn't looking to bad this morning. Some potential for a colder period. The wedge of high pressure to our north is tending to stear the Atlantic a bit further south opening the possibility of a colder flow. Ensembles slowly moving in the right direction though around 21st- 25th but nothing spectacular by any means. On the other hand ECM is very mild for the same period!

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Good morning. The start of a new week and is it the start of better weather. Here is this morning' report on the midnight releases of the NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014.
 
All models show a quieter spell of weather this week though still unsettled weather to be had by all with occasional rain but rather much less in the way of very strong winds. Low pressure areas are continuing to feature in the coming week's weather for all areas but they are shown to be either much weaker or further North than those of late restricting and changing the location for the heaviest rain and strong winds more towards the NW with some longer drier spells between the rain bands.
 
GFS then show next weekend as breezy and showery ahead of a drier Sunday under a weak and transient ridge sliding East later. Then through Week 2 the trend shown is for further Low pressure moving East across or to the North of the UK bringing further rain and strong winds at times but also some colder and brighter spells with sunshine and showers more likely with a wintry flavour to some of the showers over the hills later.
 
UKMO ends it's run opening next weekends weather with a windy and showery day on Saturday following more prolonged rainfall on Friday. It will be windy for many with temperatures near to average though it looks like it could be briefly rather chilly under the showery conditions of Saturday with snow on Northern hills within the showers.
 
GEM shows an unsettled start to next weekend with some rain before a milder and increasingly strong SW flow under deep Low pressure over the Atlantic spreads wind and rain quickly NE across all areas with more following off and on through the first half of the week after next.
 
NAVGEM also shows SW winds the main ingredient to the weather next weekend and beyond, strengthening somewhat. So this means a showery weekend will give way to some spells of more persistent rain at times in Week 2.
 
ECM shows a chilly start to next weekend under a cool NW flow with scattered showers. This is followed by a dry and brighter 48 hour period as a ridge crosses over from the West in lighter winds and sunshine by day. Through Week 2 the trend is for Low pressure in the Atlantic to dig down across the Atlantic and bathing the UK in Southerly winds and periods of rain, quite copious at times in the West and accompanied by a return to milder air.
 
The ECM Mean Charts shows that the likelihood of the UK being influenced by Low pressure out to the West and NW is high with SW carrying mild and sometimes wet weather across the UK, heaviest towards the west with any dry weather more likely towards the far east and SE.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles today show a very average set temperature wise with fairly wet weather for most after a couple of drier days in the SE early in the period indicative of further Low pressure dominated weather off the Atlantic.
 
 
The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow this week with slower tracking weather systems as a result. A sine wave pattern results in the flow with periods of good and bad weather through this week while Week 2 indicates a trend for the flow to strengthen again and become responsible for more coherent Low pressure areas to affect the UK again though hopefully not to the extent of recently.
 
 
In Summary today the weather remains generally unsettled with rain at times for all areas over the coming two weeks. It is important to note that in the context of recent standards this week's weather will be much better overall. especially in the South with less new disruption from both wind and rain as a result. In the latter end of the period the trend is shown for deep Low pressure areas to offer more in the way of coherent rainfall again with gales and severe gales in exposure and we will have to see how this trend develops over coming output to see whether that could take us back into worrying territory again. The one thing that isn't shown this morning is any prospect of particularly cold conditions and therefore not too much in the way of frost, ice and snow away from the Scottish hills.
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The day 5 fax is modified away from the discreet circulation over eire. However, the winds may look lighter than ecm/ukmo showed but the wave on the CF is really not wanted over se england!

 

 

Some rather large differences between the UKMO and GFS this morming at day 5 with the gfs

sticking with its weak heights over Greenland.

 

gfs..  ukmo..

 

 

The met-office don't seem to be weighting the gfs solution much at the moment,although

the ecm does show some support.

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Not much change from UKMO over night unfortunately with a continued threat of further heavy rain and strong winds on Friday

 

Posted Image

 

Saturday sees the low starting to pull away so rainfall should be lighter, as that low pulls away another one is following it though its exact track won't be known for a few days yet

 

Posted Image

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The gem ens and gefs want to bring next weekends low further south across the UK. ECM ens further north. fortunately the ECM ens verify better than the american ens.

Tbh, the gem and ncep ens are keen to bring the next fortnights depressions on a more southerly track than the euro.

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GFS 00z isn't looking to bad this morning. Some potential for a colder period. The wedge of high pressure to our north is tending to stear the Atlantic a bit further south opening the possibility of a colder flow. Ensembles slowly moving in the right direction though around 21st- 25th but nothing spectacular by any means. On the other hand ECM is very mild for the same period!

 

But do we really wish for lows to be steered further south as 00z GFS? As this would bring most rain across southern Britain, which is where it's really not needed. Yes, it brings colder air from the east across northern Britain, but lots of cold rain in the south the price to pay.

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i think the canadian vortex is trending closer to greenland as we head into march. its been a theme on the extended ens for a few days now and starting to gather some consistency. that would take the mean trough from the eastern side of the states into the nw atlantic - hopefully a less vigorous jet as a consequence but unlikely that nw europe would be anything other than unsettled. there are so many possible solutions within the envelope that its not worth too much analysis. however,  a weaker jet should mean less vigorous depressions heading our way. (in general)

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Model output on the whole is as you were however there does look to be a more classic predisposition with the south and east drier than the north and west.

 

ECWMF has a surprise ridge (ensemble mean does not back it) which lasts all of 1 day.

 

Posted Image

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Same old story really, mild and drier for a few days - thank goodness, then a cooler wet blip then average to mild and wet throughout

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

No cold in sight with the Op pretty much on its own in far FI

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well all i  say come march 1st  come  it back  to sq1 big  storm and the poor areas with  the flooding geting hit  again

I see a high pressure in Russia. Interesting. Maybe we see a storm slipping south-eastwards on that run.

Edited by pip22
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So quiet in here it’s unbelievable, I guess the penny has dropped, not only is there no sign of any cold but the Atlantic doesn’t seem willing to give up either. While systems will be less intense than they were, they will still nevertheless be pretty vigorous, wet and frequent, no real end in sight for the zonal train.

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