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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Can someone please post forecasts for the Jet stream for week 2 .

 

Yep here it is should move far enough to allow some ridge of high pressure in, but it won't be far enough north to allow any prolonged settled spells like the one a few weeks back

 

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The Gfs 00z op run shows a warm week ahead for the southern half of the uk, indeed, temperatures rising a few degrees as the week goes on with low 20's celsius for the south / south east, a lot of fine and sunny weather but also bands of heavy showers with a risk of thunder pushing north eastwards, which is the case today with another band of thundery rain later this week. N.ireland & Scotland much cooler than further south but gradually becoming milder during the second half of the week. It looks more generally unsettled by the end of the week with temperatures dropping closer to 16 celsius in the south / se, low teens further north. FI is changeable and cooler than this week.

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GEM continues to go for something more settled developing early next week, nothing cold on sight either from GEM infact it could turn very warm for the time of year for a time

 

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ECM and GFS both going for something more unsettled and eventually cooler though the 8 day 2m temperature anomaly for the next 8 days remains above average

 

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Ext ecm suggesting a cooling trend from wkend onwards.. With the 10-15 dayer temp anom below average for all.

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Cfs ensembles, pick up from where ecm ends, days 15-25, continue to promote cooling trend into latter end of April. The last 12 or so updates from CFS has shown this period (April 15-25th) to be below average.

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Edited by draztik
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