Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Polar Maritime]

 little old Britain stuck in the middle.

 

Yes Knock, we seem to have been stuck in the middle for the last 5 Months.. No matter what the Weather has thrown at us.

[damianslaw]

Yes Knock, we seem to have been stuck in the middle for the last 5 Months.. No matter what the Weather has thrown at us.

 

One notable aspect of the last 5 months has been the lack of any 'cold synoptics' managing to influence the country. We came close this week, with quite a chilly easterly and there was a strong chance of a potent cold attack from the NE, but look how this has been scuppered by the development of low heights to our SW propping heights up to our NE but stretching them on a NW-SE axis, a most unusual set up it has to be said.. we are now staring at anomalous warmth from the SE..

 

The persistence of low heights in the main to the west/sw has been the dominating feature of our weather since October. No mid atlantic heights, no heights to our NW, no euro heights, no northerlies or northeasterlies, only very shortlived high pressure spell in late November and earlier this month. It will be sods law the 'cold synoptics' occur in time for summer..

[knocker]

According to the GFS regarding the anomalous warmth from the SE the Thursday 12 temps in Germany are mid 60s in places top 60s with temps on the east coast in Britain around the low 50s. Warmer inland naturally. On Friday it's quite cool in the UK with temps generally in the low to mid 50s.I can't post the charts I'm looking at as I'm on the WxBell site.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at GFS 20c could be hit quite a few times between today and Thursday in some southern parts along the east coast and NE Scotland temperatures will be lower but inland temperatures should be in the teens

 

 

By Friday temperatures in the south are down to the mid teens with Lincolnshire looking best placed for the highest temps

 

 

Saturday again sees temps widely in the mid teens for England NE Scotland continues with low temperatures cooler in the south west as well

 

[Summer Sun]

Whilst its quiet in here its a good time to remind everyone that from tomorrow morning all model outputs will be 1 hour later due to the clock change to British Summer time

 

New update times all times are approximate

 

GFS 00Z will start at around 04:30 with the 12z starting at around 16:30

 

ECM 00z will start at around 07:00 with the 12z starting at around 19:00

 

UKMO 00z will start at around 06:00 with the 12z starting at around 18:00

 

Ensembles

 

GFS 00z ensemble will start at around 06:50 with the 12z starting at around 18:50

 

ECM 00z ensemble will start at around 09:30 with the 12z starting at around 21:30

Edited March 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

According to the GFS regarding the anomalous warmth from the SE the Thursday 12 temps in Germany are mid 60s in places top 60s with temps on the east coast in Britain around the low 50s. Warmer inland naturally. On Friday it's quite cool in the UK with temps generally in the low to mid 50s.I can't post the charts I'm looking at as I'm on the WxBell site.

 

as an ex met man you should be ashamed of yourself using F!

[knocker]

as an ex met man you should be ashamed of yourself using F!

 

I am.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing some cooler air moving in on Friday

 

[The PIT]

A pleasant week coming up very mild even warm at times. A bit of difference in opinion between GFS and Met. GFS shows rain on a few days Met show us as dry. Guess they'll agree by the end of Sunday. The easterly nature of the wind will mean east coasts will be cooler cloudier at times.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z 8 day 2m temperature anomaly continues to show the UK staying above average

 

 

Away from the east coast and Scotland (western Scotland an exception at times) GFS shows a warm week for many

 

 

Slightly cooler on Friday and Saturday but temperatures still make the mid teens eastern Scotland continues to struggle with maxes around 5 or 6c for some

 

Edited March 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM showing +9 850's over east Anglia on Thursday

 

 

Back down to +5 by Friday

 

 

By Saturday they continue to fall

 

Edited March 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

Amazed there's no comments on the ECM this morning!

 

 

A real taste of summer if that came off.

[knocker]

Very briefly this week. Unsettled in west under the influence of the low but light zephyr's from the SE and continent giving more stable conditions in the Midlands and East until midweek when it breaks down and cyclonic becomes the norm by Thursday and Friday. Thus a marked contrast in temps geographically Monday through Wednesday with perhaps the highest temps in the Midlands, East Anglia and the SE on Tues. Take a bow Frosty (maybe).

 

Roger Brugge's forecast max for Tuesday in degrees C.

 

Camborne   12

Heathrow   20

Filton   18

Wattisham 22

Leeming   18

Aberporth   14

Kinloss 14

Marham   21

Edited March 30, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Wow a sensational ECM this morning at day 9 and especially 10

 

 

8 day 2m temp anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

 

Edited March 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

To be honest the ECMWF EPS Ensemble Mean 850 hPa Temps Weds 00z 9th April  doesn't look that sensational to me.

 

The Uk broadly speaking divided into three.

 

North of Scotland -2C

 

Southern Scotland and Northern England 0-+3C

 

Southern England plus 3-4,5C

Edited March 30, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

Signs from GEFS of things turning generally cooler, as we progress through April... with the 10-15 dayer looking average for most areas. ECM op looks like its been on the shandy; while the ens do project something of a NW/SE split developing, the ens keep things fairly average temp wise, slightly above in some southern areas, while the NW looks to be cooler with unsettled conditions more prevalent. The Canadian ensembles do suggest a more settled period for the South into days 9/10, with pressure building from the S... thereafter we trend more unsettled for all.

 

GEFS 10-15 temp anom.

 

MSL Mean GEM Ens / day 10 & 14

Edited March 30, 2014 by draztik

[Cloud 10]

To be honest the ECMWF EPS Ensemble Mean 850 hPa Temps Weds 00z 9th April  doesn't look that sensational to me.

 

The Uk broadly speaking divided into three.

 

North of Scotland -2C

 

Southern Scotland and Northern England 0-+3C

 

Southern England plus 3-4,5C

 

Yes,the ECM op. run looks a bit OTT, however,the general idea of low pressure in

the Atlantic and high pressure over Europe looks well supported both from NAEFS

and ECM ensembles in the 8-10 day range.

 

naefs..  ecm..

 

 

Looks like a big change on the GFS 06z op. run compared to the 00z as well.

 

00z..  06z..

[phil nw.]

Yes i noticed the differences for week 2 in GFS/ECM 00z runs with GFS looking more unsettled.

 

There is some activity now with the MJO which is currently forecasted to move into Phase 2 in the next few days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

which would give us an April Composite much like the ECM /GFS mean outputs for the first week of April

 

 

also along the lines of the height anomalies forecast too so something of a nw/se split with the warmer drier weather for the areas closer to the continent.

 

We will have to watch the movement of the MJO as some forecasts show further eastward progress into Phase 3 which would give us this-if the composite pattern verifies.

 

a much more unsettled outlook further into April with the Atlantic trough close by.

 

A nw/se split does look the likely pattern into week 2- though it's uncertain whether the Atlantic moves in or the Azores High becomes more influencial further north at this stage. 

[049balt]

 

Edited March 30, 2014 by 049balt

[Milhouse]

Looks like fortunes are set to change for eastern Scotland and NE England but not until the weekend when a westerly wind will pick up. From next weekend onwards it can generally be said that the further SE you are the warmer and drier it will be.

[049balt]

ECM and GFS looking very good for the second week in April.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like fortunes are set to change for eastern Scotland and NE England but not until the weekend when a westerly wind will pick up. From next weekend onwards it can generally be said that the further SE you are the warmer and drier it will be.

 

Yep looks like winds will begin to shift round to a south / south westerly by Saturday clearing the muck which is coming off the north sea allowing the cloud to break and temperatures to rise

Edited March 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[simshady]

ECM and GFS looking very good for the second week in April.

Or bad depending on which way you look at it.

[049balt]

Or bad depending on which way you look at it.

If you want dry and settled weather I guess it looks good.

[simshady]

And if you want cool and wet weather I guess it looks bad.