Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

If we have a snapshot out to day 7 0r  T+168 hrs we see a traditional springlike scenario with the synoptics telling us that there will be plenty of "April" showers for all  ,with baggy areas of low pressure controlling the weather. Feeling warm in the sun, but I would imagine temps will fall sharply in any showers...Thunderstorms too in the mix ,so some great "Skyscapes" to look out for, so in summery, looking good, for you die hard storm lovers...including me!  

Edited March 28, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[049balt]

It would appear that the weather is doing it's best to settle down but just can't make it, GFS seems to be the most optimistic here tonight, have a feeling we are trending towards some good spells in April.

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles showing the 850's will be above average (well above average at times) from tomorrow as we move through to around the 12th the 850's get closer to average

 

 

Pressure lools likely to peak at its lowest around April 4th

 

 

The opening half of April at this stage looks like it will continue the mild / warm theme we'll have had for 4 months once this month ends on Monday

 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Next week looks like a very early plume type scenario. Warm in any sun and on some days the warmth generating some heavy slow moving thundery showers - the Midlands and parts of the west and CS England look at a particularly good shout for this. Perfect

[damianslaw]

Quite unusual synoptics at the moment with heights elongated NW - SE to our NE and low pressure anchored to the SW which is about to pull in a very mild southeasterly. Not often we see such synoptics outside of the summer months.

 

Next week looks preety unsettled and cloudy overall so despite above average temperatures many no doubt will be disappointed.

 

I am still going for a cooler unsettled theme through the middle of the month with low pressure forced on a more southerly track as heights remain stubborn to the NE. The south may hang onto milder air, but the north could be pestered by Northeasterlies and easterlies.

 

Any link up of the azores and scandi high will promote a deep trough to the west which will probably be forced SE underneath in time. My own view is we are unlikely to see a very stable pattern develop next month. I'm always sceptical of early spring settled warmth in April, 1987, 2007 and 2011 were followed by preety poor summers... On the other hand some chilly Aprils with northerly airstreams such as 1989, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2006 and 2013 were followed by very decent conditions in summer with much heat. Much rather have a warm settled May than a warm settled April.

[bluearmy]

thats not what the extended ens are showing damian.

ecm and gem ens from yesterday both build height from the south post day 8-10 and the 11/15 day period could be very pleasant indeed. note that the 00z gefs is supressed further south towards the end of the period with low heights to the north having more influence.

looks like the west will fare worst as the fronts try and push east over the first part of the week and then the upper trough becomes slow moving across the uk. once that lifts out beyond next weekend, heights rebuild from the south. so warmth, followed by mild/damp, followed by average and 'wet', followed by pleasant and warm.

Edited March 29, 2014 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run shows the weather turning much warmer from the south by tomorrow and lasting throughout next week, the peak of the warmth / humidity being next thurs / fri with temperatures soaring into the low 70's F before it briefly becomes cooler / fresher from the west but then another surge of warmth from the azores follows. The actual weather details indicate a lot of warm hazy / strong sunshine and a balmy continental SE'ly breeze with heavy showers and outbreaks of thundery rain scattered across the uk, the biggest risk of storms being the peak period of warmth I mentioned above and shown on the charts below. It will feel more like May than April next week if the ecm is correct.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Frosty.

[knocker]

A bit futile but what the heck a quick look at the week starting Sunday 6^th using GFS

 

The overview is that high pressure dominates to the east and south of the UK with low pressure to the west which wins the battle and encroaches during the week and is the influence for the whole of the week.

 

This gives a slightly positive ST anomaly in the UK, quite high in Germany, and maxima around the mid 60s in places..

 

In slightly more detail.

 

Sunday sees a low to the SW with said high pressure to the east giving a mainly SW airflow over the UK.

 

Monday much the same situation with the low further north 992mb and a slightly stronger westerly flow.

 

Tuesday has the low 999mb just off north west Ireland and dominating the UK weather.

 

Wednesday has low just off the east coast of Scotland thus the wind veering to the NW to SW depending on where you are in the UK of course.

 

Thursday has a transient ridge over the UK with the filling low over Scandinavia and another Atlantic low 994mb to the west of Ireland.

 

Friday has the low 990mb closer to Ireland and quite windy in the west and generally pretty wet

 

Saturday has the low 1003mb in the Irish Sea with a weakish trough over the UK.

 

Sunday has the low filling in the North Sea with a weak ridge building in the UK and another deep low to the west in the Atlantic.

 

All in all an unsettled picture with a fair bit of rain, the only dry day being Thursday the 10^th.

Edited March 29, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

8 day 2m temp anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows an early plume of warmth from southern europe for all parts of the uk next week but especially the south / se where temperatures rise into the 70's F, more like summer than spring for many of us next week with lots of hazy and strong sunshine with light / moderate continental SE'ly breezes but there will also be a number of heavy downpours with a risk of thunder and gusty winds where these occur. It takes a fair while for temperatures to slide back towards average..Enjoy the warmth..I will..

[knocker]

Perhaps that may be looking at it with touch of rose tinted glasses. The ECMWF surface chart is edging towards maritime air from the low to the south west.

 

A quick glance at the 06 GFS for Mon -Weds and it's quite cool in the west, particularly on Monday with the 12 temps in the low to mid 50s. On the Tues and Weds the warm weather if you can call it that is confined east of a line Yorkshire to Dorset. It rather depends on how far the low to the west encroaches but I'm not getting out the sunblock down here. the Midlands and east will be in the light SE.

Edited March 29, 2014 by knocker

[Frosty.]

They are FANTASTIC charts for an early taste of summer, the polar opposite of this time last year when we were robbed of spring completely..not this time.

[stodge]

Yes, one or two of the usual suspects getting a bit carried away this morning. SE'ly winds don't deliver warmth and sunshine for everyone - indeed, it's not going to be a brilliant week for those on the east and north-east coasts while the SW looks far from settled with LP never far away and indeed frontal system swinging up from the south could bring rain for many.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032906/gfs-0-168.png?6

 

Next weekend, the breakdown is well and truly here with LP taking over as northern blocking relents.

 

For me, the interesting point about the GFS 06Z Operational is the southerly tracking jet which, far more than northern blocking, keeps LP close to the south for a lot of the time so nothing very spring-like there in to FI. Control run very similar though with a hint of the jet lifting slowly north at the end of FI.

[knocker]

Looking at the ECMWF monthly ensemble control 500 hPa Geopotential Height & Anomaly charts there is massive change from very high positive values to very low negative values on the 16th. An indication that the end of the month won't be too clever.

[Frosty.]

Hmmm, usual suspects..well my retort to that is these charts I posted this morning bring summer warmth to parts of the uk during the next 7 days, this is no early april fools joke, temps will push into at least the low 20's celsius for some of us and with some very warm sunshine.

[knocker]

"temps will push into at least the low 20's celsius for some of us" translates as the mid 20s for some of us. What do you think the 850 temp will be when this occurs?

[Frosty.]

"temps will push into at least the low 20's celsius for some of us" translates as the mid 20s for some of us. What do you think the 850 temp will be when this occurs?

Well considering the temperatures will reach 20 celsius tomorrow in places, next week shows even warmer T850 hPa spreading north westwards just after midweek. I don't know why some people are always looking for the worst instead of the best the charts are showing, same thing happens in winter, no wonder people are put off from posting with the constant put downs.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Temperatures could reach 20c in some isolated spots in the S/E tomorrow.

 

 

Tuesday could see similar max temps to today.

 

 

The rest of the week is looking slightly cooler.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Well considering the temperatures will reach 20 celsius tomorrow in places, next week shows even warmer T850 hPa spreading north westwards just after midweek. I don't know why some people are always looking for the worst instead of the best the charts are showing, same thing happens in winter, no wonder people are put off from posting with the constant put downs.

 

I'm not a frequent visitor in here but it's not clear to me why you consider a discussion of the charts as a put down. I'm not looking for the worst merely calling it as I see it as you do so I don't see the problem. If a simple discussion such as this causes over reaction such as yours then I'll probably join the ones put off from posting.

Edited March 29, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Yes Temperatures could reach 20c in some isolated spots in the S/E tomorrow.

 

 

Already approaching 20C in parts of southeast England as of 13:00 so every chance 20c+ will be hit today and tomorrow

 

[Summer Sun]

Nice ridge of high pressure moving in on GEM at the end

 

[Polar Maritime]

Already approaching 20C in parts of southeast England as of 13:00 so every chance 20c+ will be hit today and tomorrow

 

 

Maybe Gav, certainly feels pleasant here now Temp 14,2c in shade and 21c in direct Sun.. Thing is we don't all live in a small pocket of land in the S/E, but i agree 20c could be beaten today and tomorrow in isolation.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[phil nw.]

A tricky week to come for forecasting with areas further away from the south west more likely to see the driest and warmest weather.

The slow moving complex area of low pressure just out west will throw fronts ne from time to time and those western districts especially may well see the most rain from these.

 

 

These systems weakening and tending to die away as they come against the block building north from the continent.Some central and eastern areas likely to hit upper teens and  low 20c's on some days with some bright and sunny periods.

The exceptions could still be around ne coasts where the se wind will bring some cloud and mist in off the n.sea from time to time.

 

The ens mean charts from GFS/ECM for T168hrs want to bring that Atlantic trough across the UK by the end of the week

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-168.png?6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032900/EDM1-168.GIF?29-12

 

so becoming more unsettled for all for a time before it becomes cut off starts to fill.

 

Signs after that for the pattern evolving to a more traditional n-s setup as the jet starts to move north with the Azores High starting to show to the sw.

[knocker]

Nice ridge of high pressure moving in on GEM at the end

 

 

 

Interesting looking at the surface chart for the end SS it is a classic example of a col over the UK. Low pressure to the west and east with high to the north and south and little old Britain stuck in the middle.

[damianslaw]

As I said yesterday whilst the outlook for the foreseeable future is a 'warm one' in the main for the time of year (exception NE coast where temps will be plagued well down thanks to the dreaded sea fret..), however, warmth won't correlate with settled, it looks increasingly unsettled going further into April and with a projected southerly jet profile, it will be only a matter of time heights will be squeezed by low pressure to the SW.

 

Still its a very decent outlook temperature wise, in complete contrast to this time last year. We do seem to be locked in persistant anomalous warmth or cold in recent springs, 2011 produced the exceptionally warm April, 2012 the exceptionally warm March, 2013 the exceptional cold March and overall cold spring, now a very mild first half to spring in the main - not exceptionally so it has to be said - can't see the magic 25 degree figure being recorded any time soon, but we could be knocking on 21 possibly 22 degrees tomorrow, which would rank as a very respectable temp in July nevermind late March.