Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Summer Sun]

UKMO's south to south easterly at t144 enables the +4 850's to move further north over England and Wales

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM very much backing the UKMO and it's own run this morning

 

It could becoming very warm for the time of year in central areas ahead of a front pushing up from the south/south west

 

GFS still wants to push low pressure into the Med during the mid-range whilst the GEM I have discarded as it looks out of sync with it's evolution in the day 5-8 range (rogue run at the moment)

[Barry12]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

 

Don't last long

 

Edited March 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

A very mild ECM12z mean this evening with winds at first from the SE then veering southwest as low pressure tracks northwards up the western side of the UK. Towards the end it could potentially get interesting with the op and mean both showing heights building over Europe. First plume of the season perhaps.

[Frosty.]

A nice warming trend from tonight's Ecm 12z continues to gain momentum, during this weekend it will become much warmer across the south and especially the south east with temperatures close to 20 celsius 68 F on sunday, the warmer air pumping north westwards across most of the uk, only eastern scotland remaining cooler with winds off the cold north sea but for many, the chilly E'ly will be turning SE'ly which means we draw a warmer continental flow from sunday and throughout next week according to this run with a lot of fine and sunny weather but with a risk of thundery rain in places, just a brief interlude of cooler fresher air later but the run ends with more warmth spreading north eastwards across the uk, this time from the azores with a sw -ne aligned jet profile..... It's a big change from the cold spring last year, this spring could be remembered for being warmer than average.

[johnholmes]

Just what the upper air pattern is going to be 6 days on let alone 10 or even more is not that certain yet.

An upper ridge NW of the UK looks the most likely idea with an upper trough SSW of the UK, possibly a bit further east about 5-7 days from now. This would probably mean surface high pressure NW of the UK, not unlike the last 120h Fax (latest not yet out at 2206), with frontal systems and surface lows as per that chart.

Beyond that it does look  like a fairly gentle (compared to the past few months) Atlantic flow with the main upper trough being well west of the UK. This would allow for unsettled weather at times but also interspersed with more settled conditions. These settled conditions possibly more likely in SE areas of the UK more often than elsewhere

Edited March 27, 2014 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Following the last week or so of rather cool temperatures, the main weather headline now is WARMING UP. 

 

The Ecm 00z is showing a much warmer spell for all areas starting on sunday and lasting all next week with temperatures nudging into the low 70's F, especially for the south / se but even scotland & n.ireland will warm up too. As for the actual weather details, there will be plenty of warm sunny weather but also heavy outbreaks of rain scattered across the uk, possibly of a thundery nature, perhaps the most organised rain will be further to the west / sw but we are all at risk as it's finely balanced and the tendancy appears to be for the risk of heavy rain to increase as time goes on. The bottom line is, spring warmth is incoming, a nice plume of continental warmth which neatly coincides with the clocks going forward.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Following the last week or so of rather cool temperatures, the main weather headline now is WARMING UP. 

 

The Ecm 00z is showing a much warmer spell for all areas starting on sunday and lasting all next week with temperatures nudging into the low 70's F, especially for the south / se but even scotland & n.ireland will warm up too. As for the actual weather details, there will be plenty of warm sunny weather but also heavy outbreaks of rain scattered across the uk, possibly of a thundery nature, perhaps the most organised rain will be further to the west / sw but we are all at risk as it's finely balanced and the tendancy appears to be for the risk of heavy rain to increase as time goes on. The bottom line is, spring warmth is incoming, a nice plume of continental warmth which neatly coincides with the clocks going forward.

Very nice summery Karl , it seems we are skipping April next week and going straight to May , for how long nobody knows ,but it sure is a welcome relief to see summery charts showing up again , since the turn of the month (March) we really have done very well in the main with very pleasant days becoming a regular thing . Which is very welcome after the most disgusting , vile , winter iv ever known , the thought of warm sunshine , t-shirts, and sitting outside a pub with a pint is mouth watering , roll on summer , and before we know it , October will be hear (only 7 months) and we will be on the hunt once again !

[Summer Sun]

If conditions are right it could become quite warm next week down south with UKMO showing a south to south easterly flow which results in +4 850's over all of the south and south west

 

 

An example the met office are showing a daytime low no lower than 17c from tomorrow till at least Tuesday in London

Edited March 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains unchanged for the UK with temperatures above average UK wide

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is showing rock solid support for a much warmer spell for all parts of the uk next week with SE'ly winds drawing warm continental T850 hPa up across the uk. I would expect a lot of fine and sunny, perhaps hazy weather but with a risk of heavy, thundery outbreaks scattered across the uk, especially the south west but the mean then shows cooler atlantic air making inroads after a warm start to April, possibly cooler and showery after the very warm spell.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is showing rock solid support for a much warmer spell for all parts of the uk next week with SE'ly winds drawing warm continental T850 hPa up across the uk. I would expect a lot of fine and sunny, perhaps hazy weather but with a risk of heavy, thundery outbreaks scattered across the uk, especially the south west but the mean then shows cooler atlantic air making inroads after a warm start to April, possibly cooler and showery after the very warm spell.

 

GFS ensemble at t240 prefers to keep the milder / warmer air over the UK for a bit longer

 

 

Cooler air does make it in to the UK but its not till day 14 though the far south and south west does hang on to the milder air

 

 

Plenty to resolve yet as to how long the milder / warmer air will last

[gottolovethisweather]

As others have stated there is an undeniable trend now occurring within the various outputs, which I'm pleased to see as it has indeed, only taken a few days to resolve as alluded to below.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2949661

 

The firmer day to day details at the surface will be harder to pin down as there will be great variances in weather type, aside from the general warming trend.

 

Maybe my initial idea of a very special April could reveal itself after all , as highlighted by my final sentence in the posting below from 12th March. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2945109

 

It does show things have largely developed during March as most of us expected, with very little snow about and a continued lack of any entrenched ccold air. Yes, I received a sleety flake or two during this latest cooler spell but that's all it was and now I see barely any potential for snow inducing synoptics anywhere over the coming ten to fourteen days which in itself tells us all where we could be heading. Aside from this aspect, the ensuing synoptic pattern will be an intriguing watch for me, as it should be for others. Potential plumes, Thunderstorms and early humidity could lead to some fascinating conditions and interesting skyscapes over the coming week for sure.

 

EDIT: I should add April 2007 was especially noticeable for its WARMTH and sunshine amounts, its the WARMTH aspect I'm akin to expect this time around, not so sure about the dry signal at this stage.

Edited March 28, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

06z 8 day 2m temp anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

[draztik]

ec32, jma ens and cfs ensembles do not promote notion of a warm/ settled April. Certainly ec & jma have been consistent with a cooler theme in the last 3 or so updates.

cfs ens April outlook / temp

short term warmth, yes...but longer term trending cooler. At least, that's what the models are showing.

[gottolovethisweather]

ec32, jma ens and cfs ensembles do not promote notion of a warm/ settled April. Certainly ec & jma have been consistent with a cooler theme in the last 3 or so updates.

cfs ens April outlook / temp

short term warmth, yes...but longer term trending cooler. At least, that's what the models are showing.

 

While the 15 dayer just published by the UKMO does promote a similar situation to April 2007. That situation favoured a build of pressure into the second week of April with low pressure off the SW and HP up North in the days prior. Anyway, no one truly knows what will become of this upcoming spell but your chart does favour colder conditions further NW which is similar to my general view about the South being favoured for the heat. A good Thunderstorm in progress right now here in Newbury and that certainly seems to herald a change of weather type for a few days for sure. The overnight lows on Sunday in the SE could be noteworthy for the time of year too. Something to discuss for all I imagine, over the coming weeks.

Edited March 28, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles showing the 850's are likely to be above average (well above average at times) from tomorrow till at least April 13th as we get closer to the 13th the 850's may get close to average

 

 

Pressure is likely to peak at its lowest later next week after this it recovers

 

 

Out to mid April and the mild theme of the past 4 months looks like it will continue with no support for a cooler first half to the month at this stage

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing the low gradually moving across the UK later next week though it doesn't look overly cold (850's at t120 not available at the time of posting)

 

 

8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains unchanged with above average temperatures UK wide

 

 

Warm end to GEM this afternoon

 

Edited March 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

ec32, jma ens and cfs ensembles do not promote notion of a warm/ settled April. Certainly ec & jma have been consistent with a cooler theme in the last 3 or so updates.

cfs ens April outlook / temp

short term warmth, yes...but longer term trending cooler. At least, that's what the models are showing.

Given the recent trends and verification of these models (all went cold for this weekend/next week) in the updates last week. Perhaps suggesting that like many of the shorter term models that they were over expressing heights to our north and pulling it too far west as opposed to reality where heights end up to our north east.

Of course we could see heights break down and a westerly flow return into April (beyond the first couple of days) which could pull things back to average or just below.

The models are beginning to grasp a robust Scandi high formation with further support from the Azores high into week 2, shunting low pressure up the western side of the UK and into Northern Scandinavia. This would place the UK under dry and pleasant conditions with any rain reserved for the west at first and then more likely the north west of the UK.

GEM is very warm for the time of year in the day 8-10 range.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very ironic how this warmest spell of the year perhaps coming up comes off the back end of what was to be the uprising of a real cold blast! Really have never known a winter/winter exit like it! 

To add also, it looked like the progged heights to the North a day or two ago was going to create a battleground scenario for the cold gradually winning out in the form of a cold Easterly. Instead, a day later, this idea has gone down the pan once again and we have some very warm Southerlies that look to potentially blowtorch us next week! Unbelievable!

[knocker]

Brief summary of 12 temps Sunday to Friday from GFS 12z run.

 

Sunday

Low 50s in SW rising to 60 in Sussex areas and 60+ in midlands. Slightly lower upper 50s in northern England and much lower around 50 in N. Scotland and Ireland.

 

Monday

Low 50s in SW and high 50s in Sussex coastal areas but cooler in the midlands than Monday with temps in mid 50s and similar to Monday in Scotland and N, Ireland.

 

Tuesday

Similar to Tuesday along the south coast but warmer again in the Midlands with 60 to 65 in places.  Cool again in Scotland with eastern parts of the north mid to upper 40s.

 

Wednesday

Cooler in the south west and Wales with low to mid 50s but the Midlands and east touching 60 and above. Scotland again around low 50s.

 

Thursday

Similar story to Wednesday but perhaps the relative warm in the Midlands and East Anglia spreading a bit further north as far as southern Scotland.

 

Friday

Cooler day all round with temps of low 50s in the west and cooler in the Midlands and East Anglia with temps in mid to high 50s. Still low 50s in Scotland and N. Ireland.

 

It also looks like being quite cloudy for the whole week so not that brilliant really.

[Summer Sun]

Another mild / warm run from ECM to day 8 though unsettled at time by day 9 cooler air moves in

 

 

Cooler to end for all

 

Edited March 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a decent spell of warm weather for the time of year with max temps into the mid 60's F with potential for some lucky spots to reach or exceed the magic 21 celsius 70 F next week, as early as sunday could reach 20 celsius across the south east with a light SE'ly breeze, in general, the higher temperatures are likely to be across southern uk and dependent on sunshine amounts but it's looking good with a flow from southern europe instead of the cold north sea. In terms of weather detail, sunny periods mixed with outbreaks of heavy rain and showers with a high risk of thunder seems likely, especially across the south west of the uk, closest to the low, the longest dry spells further east / se. The mean shows cooler atlantic air making inroads eventually but temperatures still look pleasantly close to 60 F or thereabouts, somewhat cooler the further north you are. There is a strong hint that the azores anticyclone could build in during early / mid April.

[Summer Sun]

A nice GFS ensemble this evening from April 10th with hints of the Azores moving in