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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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of more note is the extended ecm ens mean introduces another shot of deeply cold air into the ne of the states and eastern canada which reinvigorates the jet. without some strong blocking this side of the atlantic, we will probably be looking at a further round of more notable rain and potentially windy again as we move into the final days of feb and onwards into march.

Edited by bluearmy
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actually the CFS is showing blocked charts with easterlies from the middle of march right into april! it would be typical for that to actually happen!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

Edited by bobbydog
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Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in. 

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Great post Tamara. My interpretation of that would be that whilst we can look forward to a bit of a respite from the tempestuous weather this week, it may only be a respite if the cold does return over the Eastern United States. Obviously that is a fairly simplistic way of putting it, but one thing I have understood since joining this forum is that whatever happens, a strong jet rarely does us any favours!

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Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in. 

 

 

I think as time goes on as we see the Polar Vortex diminishing, we're likely to see less cold air pumped across the Atlantic, of course with this cold air been one of the main sources of fuel for these intense lows we're seeing, they're likely to become less intense, therefore heralding a pattern change as we go into Spring. I originally thought a colder Spring may of been on the cards, but I think it's rather unfavorable now, although I think the chances of a cooler summer have increased as a result of this.

Edited by Backtrack
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First comment on the models, though deep in FI 2/3rd march on the GFS looks to have cool uppers with a slack northerly flow. I was wondering if with the jetstream flowing through southern europe,the low pressure to the sw would be taken through the med potentially dragging much colder temps down from the ne? However unlikely more of an exercise in learning please feel free to shoot down in flames:-)

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Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in.

Agree with this and I've been thinking the same thing to be honest. Low heights and a strong march sun add up to only one thing and that's big shower clouds! We could easily end up with something along the lined of late April and may 2012. The sun is really ramping up again now and I noticed this morning that in direct sunlight my solar system was producing 20 % more power than it was three weeks ago. I think the worst of the wind is probably out of the way, but in terms of rainfall I suspect some very big totals to come over the next month unless a big change occurs and frankly I'm not seeing where it's coming from :-(
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ECM 12z looks like the same old stuff we've seen all winter, deeply unsettled and with plenty of wind and heavy rain. No end in sight.

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

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From the perspective of a flood victim, I hate to say it but tonight's runs are like kicking an opponent when he's already down on the canvas at the end of a ten-count. It's a particularly bad blow since over the last few days, there has been this hope that yesterday would be the end of the persistent rains and storms over the UK, and that we might at least get a drier week to allow some of that flooding to subside. The 12Z runs really do end that hope, I fear. After Monday's not insignificant rainfall, we get just two days off before all runs bring further rainfall on Thursday. The UKMO and ECM are really troubling as they look to reinvigorate the stormy pattern we've just been through, this UKMO chart in particular:

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ECM has rainfall crossing the country every couple of days from Thursday onwards, and ends very ominously, as Boby has posted above.

 

I imagine we may not see anything with gusts 80mph+ again but the rainfall just isn't letting up. I see from the rainfall statistics thread that February's rainfall record is indeed under threat (halfway there by the 13th, with 15 more days to go). Winter rainfall record is in the bag really. Back to back monthly rainfall records would be unprecedented surely? We can't seem to get through a year without some sort of new record these days!

 

I love cold weather but I'm now way beyond looking for cold, just anything at all to stop the rain, Azores High or Euro High would all be welcome. But we just can't seem to get a pattern change, so unusual.  

Edited by rjbw
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As I pointed out last night, there looks to be no end at present to the disturbed weather. I'm at work but looking at the charts above, it doesn't look good for the flood hit.

 

Looking at 12z GFS rainfall accumulations up t+168 (Sat 22nd) suggests totals will be highest across the north and west, i.e. Cornwall, Devon, S and W Wales, northern England and western Scotland - with lower totals towards the SE - due to less heavy rain here and longer drier interudes next week. So some relief for the Thames catchment area anyway.

 

Beyond next weekend, too far off to be certain of ECM's more stormy scenario, though is rather concerning that we may return to that again. I think all will depend on how far south the deep cold pooling over NE Canada and Greenland area sinks, if it does, like ECM, sink further south into the Atlantic than GFS, then the steepening thermal gradient created will no doubt re-ignite a strong jet and spawn another bout of deep lows.

Edited by Nick F
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it's all a bit depressing tonight. The direction of travel over the last few days has gradually been away from any real end to the unsettled weather and back to something similar to what we've seen for weeks on end.

 

the westerly theme just keeps on giving and it's odds on now that it will see out winter.

 

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With ground water levels so high even a slight moderation in rainfall amounts is going to make precious little difference.

 

I have everything crossed that a change of season will bring a change of luck - be it cold or warm i couldn't care less. Let's just hope it's drier.

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Looking at 12z GFS rainfall accumulations up t+168 (Sat 22nd) suggests totals will be highest across the north and west, i.e. Cornwall, Devon, S and W Wales, northern England and western Scotland - with lower totals towards the SE - due to less heavy rain here and longer drier interudes next week. So some relief for the Thames catchment area anyway.

 

Beyond next weekend, too far off to be certain of ECM's more stormy scenario, though is rather concerning that we may return to that again. I think all will depend on how far south the deep cold pooling over NE Canada and Greenland area sinks, if it does, like ECM, sink further south into the Atlantic than GFS, then the steepening thermal gradient created will no doubt re-ignite a strong jet and spawn another bout of deep lows.

As I'm sure you'd agree, the pause on rainfall for the Thames depends on the temporary ridge that GFS shows for next Friday/Saturday

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I imagine rainfall totals will be higher for this region if the UKMO T144 came off - the ridge is flatter and held back in the Atlantic as another front/trough swings across the south Friday/Saturday night = yet more rain for the Thames

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ECM doesn't have the ridge so close to the UK either, though greater rainfall in the NW - maybe

Posted Image

Edited by rjbw
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