Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Thundery wintry showers]

I know that those snow risk charts are quite experimental, even at short range, but does anybody know if they take into account elevation or not?

I think so, although the relatively limited resolution of the GFS model is an issue (as it is with all forecast models) as the topography of the British Isles has to be smoothed out/interpolated over grid boxes.

 

I am still seeing strong agreement on high pressure building close to the British Isles into next week but there are question marks over how long it will last- personally I think we may well see low pressure take charge again towards the end of March with low pressure heading east-south-eastwards from Iceland.

[gottolovethisweather]

Here's my take on things over the coming days for folks located down in Southern England. The rule of thumb applied to this posting will favour a snowier outlook for parts Midlands Northwards.  

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79573-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-27214-18z/?p=2947270

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to hint at a pressure rise next week this process takes place during Tuesday

 

 

With the full benefits here a day later

 

 

High pressure backs west at t240 which allows some colder air to move into Scotland and Northern Ireland

 

[Stuie]

A little room for modification SE regarding Saturday with a potential flicker? I am not sure I have ever gone a winter without a flake before.

Unfortunately the main piece in the jigsaw, wet bulb level = UGH!

At this short distance it would take a heck of modification to turn water into wine.

[Yarmy]

Putting aside our own transient Northerly this weekend, look at the cold barrelling into the Eastern US yet again early next week:

 

 

They've had some winter.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble once more shows pressure building next week, those in the south likely to benefit from it the longest

 

[Barry12]

High pressure will build in again, bringing warm and dry weather into April is my prediction

Edited March 18, 2014 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

Put

They've had some winter.

I'm looking forward to our mini winter this weekend..waited 4 months for this, best cold charts since last april.

Edited March 18, 2014 by Frosty.

[SMU]

I'm looking forward to our mini winter this weekend..waited 4 months for this, best cold charts since last april.

 

Frosty I think you have fallen a long way off your perch on the top of that ramp-

 

Apart from moaning yesterday about the 'true weather enthusiasts' not posting all year round- your now ramping up charts that are mediocre at best.

 

A few transient wintry showers for the NW at best & some snow for scotland covering a span of around 24-36 hours is the order of the day.- I wouldnt hype it up anymore than that-

 

After that frosty by night & temps recovering by day.

Edited March 18, 2014 by Steve Murr

[damianslaw]

Trending cooler is the theme going forward with single digit maxima for many by Friday, and quite cold for the north, but not a patch on this time last year.

 

In showery set ups and uppers hovering around -5 degrees, many places in the north could see a surprise snowfall, especially where showers are heavy aided by evaporative cooling - the classic spring snow shower effect from a northerly - it doesn't have to be a direct northerly, it is all about the intensity of precipitation.

 

Into next week it looks like the azores high will be making another visit to SW shores, but changes are taking shape way to the west with high pressure building and I suspect the energy burst off the eastern seaboard will funnel a trough down across Iceland and towards our shores kicking the azores ridge aside allowing a more direct northerly to surface before the months aid, aided crucially by stronger heights to our NW. This is the time of year for northerlies to rear there head.

Edited March 18, 2014 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Later this week and into the weekend is looking colder than of late but away from Scotland and high ground in England temperatures should recover to the high end of single figures in the north and possibly low double figures by day in parts of the south certainly colder than of late yes but nothing exceptionally cold away from Scotland by any means and nothing like 12 months ago

 

 

After cold nights temperature begin to recover for all next week by day

 

Edited March 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

I stand by what I said, true weather enthusiasts post all year.

Ps. I don't like personal digs at other members by name steve, my comments were not aimed at anyone in particular so there was no need for your childish put down.

[knocker]

Trending cooler is the theme going forward with single digit maxima for many by Friday, and quite cold for the north, but not a patch on this time last year.

 

In showery set ups and uppers hovering around -5 degrees, many places in the north could see a surprise snowfall, especially where showers are heavy aided by evaporative cooling - the classic spring snow shower effect from a northerly - it doesn't have to be a direct northerly, it is all about the intensity of precipitation.

 

Into next week it looks like the azores high will be making another visit to SW shores, but changes are taking shape way to the west with high pressure building and I suspect the energy burst off the eastern seaboard will funnel a trough down across Iceland and towards our shores kicking the azores ridge aside allowing a more direct northerly to surface before the months aid, aided crucially by stronger heights to our NW. This is the time of year for northerlies to rear there head.

 

I'm sorry but what exactly do you mean, in meteorological speak, by the "energy burst off the eastern seaboard will funnel a trough down across Iceland"?

[knocker]

I stand by what I said, true weather enthusiasts post all year.Ps. I don't like personal digs at other members by name steve, my comments were not aimed at anyone in particular so there was no need for your childish put down.

 

I can relate to that. I remember when I first joined this forum commenting on the obsession with cold weather and was told in no uncertain terms that this was a weather forum what did I expect. I thought what a vacuous comment.

[abruzzi spur]

Frosty I think you have fallen a long way off your perch on the top of that ramp-

 

Apart from moaning yesterday about the 'true weather enthusiasts' not posting all year round- your now ramping up charts that are mediocre at best.

 

A few transient wintry showers for the NW at best & some snow for scotland covering a span of around 24-36 hours is the order of the day.- I wouldnt hype it up anymore than that-

 

After that frosty by night & temps recovering by day.

I thought you didn't read anyone else's posts, Steve?

 

Thanks for popping back to tell us all where we are going wrong, expect to see you coming back in the early winter.  I mean for goodness sake, what's the point of all this, it just sounds like resentment.  It's weather, no-one can truly accurately predict it but everyone can be moved by it, disturbed by it, thrilled, depressed and ultimately, and tragically, killed by it.  It inspires poetry, music, literature, painting, and yet a lot of the time on this thread we get the stamping of feet, tantrums, arguments, bans and deletions.  People that had a lot to add don't post here any more, and that's a great loss to this website  - I'll stick to the regionals where there is year round balance, fun, insight and perspective.

 

AS

[andy989]

Putting aside our own transient Northerly this weekend, look at the cold barrelling into the Eastern US yet again early next week:

 

 

They've had some winter.

Hope this doesn't spell  bad news for us in terms of more Atlantic depressions.

[damianslaw]

I'm sorry but what exactly do you mean, in meteorological speak, by the "energy burst off the eastern seaboard will funnel a trough down across Iceland"?

 

 

Yes sorry my language wasn't very clear. The models are predicting another deep trough to develop over E/ NE USA/East Canada early next week with steep temperature gradient behind and once this clears the eastern seaboard of USA it will fuel the Jetstream somewhat producing a lot of energy, however, there are signs of heights building over the atlantic behind this trough feature - suggesting an amplified flow thereafter which would aid the development of mid atlantic heights with the trough forced on a SE path across the country sending any attempt of azores high ridge westwards. Its just how I see things. It would mean a shortlived settled period early next week, with mild conditions reserved for the south before we see something similar to what is likely to happen at the end of this week, but a more pronounced northerly spell as heights ridge north in the mid atlantic as opposed to toppling into the country.

[Captain Shortwave]

Trending cooler is the theme going forward with single digit maxima for many by Friday, and quite cold for the north, but not a patch on this time last year.

 

In showery set ups and uppers hovering around -5 degrees, many places in the north could see a surprise snowfall, especially where showers are heavy aided by evaporative cooling - the classic spring snow shower effect from a northerly - it doesn't have to be a direct northerly, it is all about the intensity of precipitation.

 

Into next week it looks like the azores high will be making another visit to SW shores, but changes are taking shape way to the west with high pressure building and I suspect the energy burst off the eastern seaboard will funnel a trough down across Iceland and towards our shores kicking the azores ridge aside allowing a more direct northerly to surface before the months aid, aided crucially by stronger heights to our NW. This is the time of year for northerlies to rear there head.

Hmm by sheer definition, a burst of energy coming out of the states would surely result in the flattening of the pattern and more of a north/south split with heights sitting near the default position over Iberia into France with low pressure to our north. Heights do want to build in from the south west after the weekend and there are some signs of a new ridge forming in the Atlantic with a very weak slither of heights over the UK between the cells east and west of us.

An example but probably a key timeframe.

We need an easing of the jet to allow the ridge to our west to amplify andallow low heights to drop into the gap through the UK.

Will it happen? I guess I'm the yin to your yang and think longer term high pressure will reassert itself just to the south/south west of the UK. But plenty of time for changes. One thing is for sure, the coming weekend will be a lot cooler than recent ones (though perhaps that is a given considering 20C was breached over the past 2 weekends).

Edited March 18, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[gottolovethisweather]

Time for bed now from me, another day tomorrow and another day nearer to this fabled Northerly interlude. Who will it produce for? Might not know until less than 24 hours beforehand as is so often the case. My thoughts can be viewed by having a read of my previous posting. All thoughts are welcomed in here, as long as we treat each other as we hopefully would in every day conversation, i.e. with respect. Weather is our passion, learning from all the many differing opinions of what the future holds is one of my favourites.

 

Play nicely guys n gals and let's stick to model output discussion from here on in and not any personal related discussion. If you have to name names (yes we've all done it, myself included) perhaps one should consider keeping it private between yourselves, PM being appropriate tool for such tasks.

 

Thankyou for your cooperation and good night.

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited March 18, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bryan629]

Putting aside our own transient Northerly this weekend, look at the cold barrelling into the Eastern US yet again early next week:

 

 

They've had some winter.

True Yarmy, they are the lucky ones and yet again NORTHERN USA goes into the freezer... the pv has been relentless over the past four months just sitting there causing drought to western america and storms to western europe. 

All across our winter we have seen some major weather systems impact on the uk...relentless depressions caused by a raging pv and returning tropical air clashing together, in turn powering up a very volatile jet stream....pushing south all the while spawning dartboard low after low straight into the uk. 

All winter we have been seeing charts like the one above and all winter we have hoped high pressure would build somewhere over or in our vacinity to deflect the jet stream and as we know it didnt happen.... we as a nation bit the bullet so to speak, and im glad to say it was nice to see a HP cell park over the uk over recent days to calm things down , dry out a little , and enjoy the ever increasing solar strength. 

 

 

Even though the models are showing what could be the ` coldest spell of recent months` for a few days...what is really concerning to me is the way the jet is being modeled against a still very volatile pv and an ever increasing warming northern hemisphere, looking at the chart you have posted it is quite hard to see how the jet would buckle to re-assert a HP cell. 

 

i think that once again the models are under-estimating the influence of cold air masses and warm air masses versus the influence of the jet stream in our neighbourhood we shall see the jet take another hike south of the uk and stay there for a good number of weeks yet.. in the meantime seeing as its spring dont be surprised to see a few `dartboards` appearing on the models.

 

I really hope im wrong on this but thats how i see the jet behaving. 

 

In other news, what ever has happened to mushy man rob and a boy named sue , miss their posts 

[knocker]

Ridge  building over the southern part of UK?

Edited March 18, 2014 by knocker

[bryan629]

Ridge  building over the southern part of UK?

Maybe Knocker, just maybe... its the split flow over the HP CELL in western america thats been sat there all our winter months , has given us grief here. 

models have persistantly underestimated the punch the pv has on the jet as it is exiting eastern usa ..wont take much to change its course. fingers crossed tough im not holding my breath

Edited March 19, 2014 by bryan629

[knocker]

Had a quick look this morning. Not much change with the transient cool spell from tomorrow through the weekend much as it was. Could get quite chilly briefly in the north of Scotland. Gem and UKMET seem in broad agreement until next week when GFS consolidates the high pressure and Gem isn't too keen and UKMET has a trough to the west of the UK but adjacent. Precipitation much the same with the front lying Cornwall to Aberdeen tomorrow followed for a couple of days of showers, some heavy, particularly in the north.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stop the personal jibes please ! Very rude and out of order.

 

Frosty is a respected member that adds a flare to the thread, lets leave it at that and move back to Model Output.

 

Take note of GLTW.

 

"Play nicely guys n gals and let's stick to model output discussion from here on in and not any personal related discussion. If you have to name names (yes we've all done it, myself included) perhaps one should consider keeping it private between yourselves, PM being appropriate tool for such tasks."

Edited March 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Paul]

Can we drop the personal digs please and just concentrate on discussing the models.