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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM back on board now for another pressure rise next week along with UKMO

     

    Tuesday looks like a day of sunshine and showers for some whilst other parts will remain dry

     

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    First signs of high pressure coming back in mid week

     

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    And by Thursday its back settling things down for most of England, wales and Ireland

     

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    Still around for Friday as well, completely different to the 00z so far

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM no where near as unsettled as it was this morning, the high moves away for a couple of days at t192 and t216 before it returns at t240

     

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    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Yet another cold spell melting away into nothing once again! I sincerely hope that Spanish plume GFS is hinting comes off though! Could be breaking some temperature records if that run actually verifies!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tonight's GEFS 12z mean is trending more unsettled and cooler as time goes on but with the most disturbed weather across the north of the uk where the risk of polar maritime incursions is also higher, the south having more of a mixed bag of pressure rising and then falling etc with the best of the fine weather with lighter winds further south but the mean shows unsettled and windier weather becoming more widespread beyond the next week or so. It doesn't look like the current settled spell will last much longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM ensemble showing high pressure close to the south at t120 at t144.....

     

     

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    ....Before it moves away allowing some unsettled weather to return though some sunnier spells can't be ruled out in between rain systems it shouldn't be too cold through-out with a return to average temperatures most likely after Sunday's warm weather in the south with 20c possible

     

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Yet another cold spell melting away into nothing once again! I sincerely hope that Spanish plume GFS is hinting comes off though! Could be breaking some temperature records if that run actually verifies!!

    I have had my eye out for that for a while! That synoptic currently in FI was extremely common leading up to Autumn, don't be surprised to see it return in the not too distant future, there could be some tasty charts later on (depending on your weather type of course) :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Frosty, the polar maritime air you talk about will make it slightly cooler, but nothing else. I don't get why you would rather have cool and wet instead of mild/warm and dry, especially after having the wettest winter in 100 years. The second half of March was supposed to be cooler, but all I see is high pressure slipping away for a day or two before returning again. 

     

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    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    General trend is for things to turn unsettled, the PV remains preety strong to our NW and should win out against any renewed attempts of pressure rises from the SW.

     

    I think ECM is having a bit of a wobble today, and I'm not buying GFS fantasy land of a southerly plume.

     

    The outlook for the second half of March looks preety standard stuff, but will feel much cooler than late with the return of wind and rain and alternating NW and west airstreams.

     

    All eyes on the PV and where energy transfers in the coming 2 weeks, signs that it will finally quieten down and head eastwards opening the doors to height rises to our NW which have been elusive for months now, aiding the chance of a preety chilly April possibly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    General trend is for things to turn unsettled, the PV remains preety strong to our NW and should win out against any renewed attempts of pressure rises from the SW.

     

     

    I'm afraid I don't understand this reasoning. Are you suggesting the stratospheric PV is directly controlling the tropospheric circulation to our SW, particularly in March, and if so how? My limited understanding of this  is it doesn't create new modes of variability in the troposphere merely stimulates preexisting modes. Surely otherwise we need some sort of downward forcing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    I want a cold snap barry, some of the models today have shown a colder more unsettled spell during the second half of next week with snow in places. I don't want to see a return of the weather which dominated winter, I want snow and frosts and I won't give up until late april.

     

    Fair enough Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Well GFS and ECMWF don't agree on the long term outlook. Pity it's a bit early for pine cones, The breakdown to PM and unsettled NW's next week looks okay with a bit of a norh/south divide which is okay in these parts. But getting to the end of the period GFS have a deep low to the north bringing in some very unsettled conditions which the ECMWF is certainly not keen on. All this best ignored methinks.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 00z op run spawns some vigorous depressions, the one shown below being the most severe and similar to the storms we had throughout the winter with very tight isobars wrapped around it..BUT...this is not a bad run for the south of the uk overall, high pressure does build in across the south / south east at times with plenty of fine and pleasantly mild / warm weather, however, the further north west you are, the more unsettled and windier it looks for the majority of the time with occasional Pm incursions, especially across scotland where temperatures look closer to average and slightly below at times which means a lot more snow for the mountains.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z op run is a lot more placid than the gfs, it doesn't fire up the atlantic to anything like the same degree and the south of the uk is predominantly fine, just the occasional weak front and breezier weather disturbing the otherwise settled picture, more unsettled for the north of the uk but nothing like the scale of the gfs and more in the way of high pressure influence..the Ecm looks good generally speaking,

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    what range does confidence in storms become to strength.  

     

    This track predicted winds over the midlands and north 22nd.  Hopefully a false blip or most likely change track but if it maintains tensity could be worry for where it hits. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Models overnight, especially ECM, indicating that HP across the south maybe more stubborn to remove than previously thought - the onset of more unsettled conditions delayed by a few days until late week/next weekend. However, the more progressive 00z GFS, UKMO, GEM and JMA  faster than ECM to introduce unsettled conditions to all areas from the west/northwest later next week.

     

    EPS postage stamps do show more cyclonic solutions next Thurs (t+120) like UKMO, though most appear to keep HP across the south.

     

    http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014031500!!/

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a much less settled outlook than the op run, it looks particularly unsettled for the northern half of the uk, especially n.ireland and scotland, whereas the south of the uk, especially southern england is predominantly settled for most of next week apart from a more changeable blip early in the week but then by next weekend it shows a more generally changeable / unsettled broadly westerly flow with low pressure to the north west gaining the upper hand across most / all areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    12Z gets more unsettled with time. First the north by midweek, and then the south by Friday. Nothing particularly cold in the near future, and probably well into double figures in the south until at least midweek.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM still wanting to build pressure by mid week, could turn quite warm in the south especially could be looking at temps close to 20c in places

     

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    Becomes more unsettled at the end of the week

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Looks like the ecm has taken sides with the gfs on the the latest runs. So a fair amount of fine weather for the south of the uk early to mid week then things progressively turn unsettled for all as we end the week and turning colder as well.........

    Edited by ANYWEATHER
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Flippin hell, I have dragged out the very very worn straws for this, shirley not.... will obviously(lol) correct East......

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Well it is looking like this settled spell is now coming to an end , but I have to say for us in the South West it has been the Coldest spell of the Winter so far , Max temps of around 4-7 deg and Fog lasting most of the day . We got one nice day , last Sunday and that was that , Fog and cloud ever since , The difference was sometimes over 15 deg between South East England and South West. Going by current charts , we need better ones than are currently on show to see any meaningful Snow South of the MIdlands , and am also mindful that the P/V energy is still very strong and imagine the Pattern currently shown will end up further East , HP just does not want to establish over Greenland this year . 

    All we can hope is we do not return to a flooding situation . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I have to confess I haven`t the foggiest what happens at the strat level but I have stumbled upon this and to me, is warming.

    Tomorrow:

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    Next Saturday:

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    Quite a bit different hey? Sorry if this should be posted in the strat thread but I do feel it is poignant for next week and the cool down period. Warm up top, cool below (the way I see this information).

    850hPa tomorrow:

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    Next Sat:

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    Good job these charts are in colour and not FAX charts. Sorry if the above is boring but may make some sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    ECM still wanting to build pressure by mid week, could turn quite warm in the south especially could be looking at temps close to 20c in places

     

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    Becomes more unsettled at the end of the week

     

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    Not looked at much of the outputs today but have read the thoughts in here and I feel the ECM will be closest to the mark with its evolutions around the 21st and 22nd March blip. Thereafter my view is that the HP influence will regain its grip down in the extreme South of England and potentially bring about an even more intriguing April on top of what has already have been a fascinating March at least for my region. Attempting to predict the Temps at this range is very difficult given the Temps under the fog and cloud in recent days were very cool or even cold and the warmth outside of it has produced some very decent Temps considering the time of year. Perhaps, a colder trend is the main choice but still generally dry away from the North would be my bet. At the mid-point of March we are now looking at only 12.2mm in Newbury with 11 largely dry days since the 4th and more to come. This should continue, bar the odd weak passing front in my view, but time will tell I guess. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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