Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Looks often cool and unsettled from next Tuesday:

    post-2595-0-91973000-1394750656_thumb.pnpost-2595-0-53977200-1394750722_thumb.pnpost-2595-0-88555300-1394750807_thumb.pn

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

    It was warn here today.  I was in my tee-shirt at 7.45am for my 15 min walk to the gym and return walk at 9am. And this afternoon was like a very reasonable summer afternoon!! 

     

    Bring it on summer!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Sunbathing weather each day this week here, maxima around 15c.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset

    Its the fact the BBC and media as a whole is describing things as warm nationwide which is not the case. I probably sound pedantic but they should be saying warm under the sunshine and light winds in southern parts only, rather than a headline saying 'warm sunshine', which is what the BBC have just stated as a summary for the weekend. anyone who may have just read this a summary statement without seeing the actual forecast is being very misled, the weekend for the northern half of the country will see no 'warm sunshine' indeed plagued by cloud drizzle and wind with temps average at best. A case of southern bias I think...

    Apologies, I actually only took in the last para of your original post. Yes, you are quite right to get annoyed when the main BBC forecast is for warm weather generally when the reality is far from it.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Its the fact the BBC and media as a whole is describing things as warm nationwide which is not the case. I probably sound pedantic but they should be saying warm under the sunshine and light winds in southern parts only, rather than a headline saying 'warm sunshine', which is what the BBC have just stated as a summary for the weekend. anyone who may have just read this a summary statement without seeing the actual forecast is being very misled, the weekend for the northern half of the country will see no 'warm sunshine' indeed plagued by cloud drizzle and wind with temps average at best. A case of southern bias I think...

    It reached 17C here today - definitely warm, especially for the time of year.  Most days haven't been warm though - between 11 and 14C.

     

    Western areas were plagued by low cloud and fog for most of the day.

    Edited by cheese
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Sunbathing weather each day this week here, maxima around 15c.

    Its still winter here and im in Cornwall. Infact last couple of days its been colder than winter, frosts and cold fog, no t-shirts and shorts, still wraped up in coats and scarfs, not looking at all summery in the forecast either, in fact it looks more wintry, with snow potential:-) Edited by John Badrick
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The models are looking progressively more unsettled next week with stronger winds and spells of rain alternating with sunshine and showers, mild, locally warm at first but the second half of next week looks colder, even a risk of some surprise snowfalls, and not just on hills...and increasingly frosty nights later. 

    post-4783-0-73986400-1394784272_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-65590400-1394784300_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-51945300-1394784315_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-80930300-1394784331_thumb.pn

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes Karl, the models are slowly firming up on the cool/cold unsettled spell from around the 19th, pushing cold Polar Maritime air S/E across the UK. Will be a shock to the system after the settled spell we are currently having, with snow showers even down to low levels, and a biting wind with -4/-8uppers covering most of the UK. This could be a colder period than we have had all winter !

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    John Hammond on BBC 1 after the regional news bulletins last night suggested 20c could be hit again on Sunday and looking at GFS thats entirely possible for some in the south

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    Does someone hate cornwall apparantly low going cause another 30 foot sea swell slam into lands end thursday according magic seaweed website.   Good news for our front is sea swell for north sea lessened its threat to storm surge.   We really apart from december 5th not been in the game this winter.

     

    Are we going get final string lows swansong from 20th again.  Then the cold push back into artic 29th very warm from then on.

     

    interesting rain accumulation

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by vladthemert
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Haven't posted in here for a while, mainly as there's not been much happening wxwise. But all models agreeing on a big change from mid-week as the jet migrates south again - with gales and heavy rain returning across all areas with increasingly cold air digging in from the northwest by next w/e - bringing a threat of snow to the northern half of Britain later in the week - perhaps even to lower levels. GFS indicating max temps returning to single digits everywhere, so after possible 20C this Sunday in the southeast, my t-shirts and shorts will be replaced by thermals and woolies!

     

    The more unsettled cool and cyclonic westerly regime with the southerly-tracking jet may become entrenched until the end of the month too looking at the extended ens.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    Haven't posted in here for a while, mainly as there's not been much happening wxwise. But all models agreeing on a big change from mid-week as the jet migrates south again - with gales and heavy rain returning across all areas with increasingly cold air digging in from the northwest by next w/e - bringing a threat of snow to the northern half of Britain later in the week - perhaps even to lower levels. GFS indicating max temps returning to single digits everywhere, so after possible 20C this Sunday in the southeast, my t-shirts and shorts will be replaced by thermals and woolies!

     

    The more unsettled cool and cyclonic westerly regime with the southerly-tracking jet may become entrenched until the end of the month too looking at the extended ens.

     

    Thats what I seeing in models too just at the point neap tides.   You wonder what coastal errosion could bring if all varables join.   Some models say small block 24th might happen this long way off.   Do you think it may continue into April like last run

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Haven't posted in here for a while, mainly as there's not been much happening wxwise. But all models agreeing on a big change from mid-week as the jet migrates south again - with gales and heavy rain returning across all areas with increasingly cold air digging in from the northwest by next w/e - bringing a threat of snow to the northern half of Britain later in the week - perhaps even to lower levels. GFS indicating max temps returning to single digits everywhere, so after possible 20C this Sunday in the southeast, my t-shirts and shorts will be replaced by thermals and woolies!

     

    The more unsettled cool and cyclonic westerly regime with the southerly-tracking jet may become entrenched until the end of the month too looking at the extended ens.

     

     

    Indeed quite a significant change on the cards for next week - the models have for a good week now suggested the current settled weather will be replaced by a cooler unsettled spell from the northwest - though the change has been put back a few days.

     

    Shorts and t-shirts.. not quite yet ready for those here in Cumbria. Indeed single digit maxima yesterday and most likely today as well - its grey and murky outside with the threat of drizzle in the sky, not very springlike. Monday-Wednesday were superb though, its rare that we see three days with clear skies and wall to wall sunshine.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    According to the Gfs 06z op run..winter is coming later next weekPosted Image

     

    come back teits and steve murr..netweather needs youPosted Image

    Typical cold incursions during Spring, nothing screaming Winter in the model output at all in my book?!
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Typical cold incursions during Spring, nothing screaming Winter in the model output at all in my book?!

    Correct nothing screaming Winter... But could well be colder than anything we have had all winter, so on that note a Wintry spell seems apt going by the latest model runs. Edited by Polar Maritime
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

    Yes, as I pointed out a couple of days ago and others have suggested for a while now, looks like there'll be a breakdown of the HP and we'll have some cooler unsettled weather. Unlikely that a settled spell would last until October! :)

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS continues to show 2m temperatures remaining slightly above average till at least the 22nd

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    Was 09/10 severe in the States?Hes a bit ahead of himself if hes claiming to have forecast winter 14/15 correctly!?

    For those who have followed Joe on Twitter and Accuweather before he went to Weatherbell Know what he's on about. Shame he doesn't do a video blog on Europe like he used to at Accuweather.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Please can we stick to the models? 'Big' Joe's past successes/failures, although interesting, are hardly model-related?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO looking better this afternoon for later next week with high pressure coming back

     

    Firstly we have an unsettled spell to get through on Wednesday especially the further north you are

     

    Posted Image

     

    Then it settles down again

     

    Posted Image

     

    :)

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
    Posted · Hidden by TonyH, March 14, 2014 - wrong thread!
    Hidden by TonyH, March 14, 2014 - wrong thread!

    Clear with a sharp frost last night - the coldest since November (-7c).

    Spells of hazy sun to 1300, then overcast and much cooler, the odd spoit of drizzle. moderate variable breeze became generally west/ NW. 

     

    Min -3.6c @ 0450

    Max 11.1c @ 1257

    Trace rain yesterday and today

    Est sun 3.5 hours

    Max wind NNW 17mph @ 1138

     

    Currently Cloudy, cool

    6.6c/ 94%/ 1028mbar steady

    post-2595-0-16934200-1394816805_thumb.jppost-2595-0-62706500-1394816809_thumb.jppost-2595-0-10880700-1394816814_thumb.jppost-2595-0-94742100-1394816824_thumb.gipost-2595-0-83867100-1394816834_thumb.pn

    post-2595-0-62757100-1394816820_thumb.jp

    Link to post
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Away from the short term, no real sign of any significant cold outbreak or settled weather. Just a few ridges from the Azores high here and there which could bring drier conditions with the risk of frosts. Looks like a return to a more mobile westerly pattern with alternating mild/cool airmasses. Nothing spectacular either way.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Slightly nippier next weekend but nowt too wintry apart from the mountains of Caledonia - zilch snow elsewhere of course.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Roaringly mild FI from GFS 12z

     

    Posted Image

    Probably unsettled with fluctuating temps then - pretty average. Posted Image

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...