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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Ext ecm, shows a period of unsettled conditions from around 18-24th March, more prevalent in the North of the country. Thereafter pressure is forecast to rise from the SW, with the Azores wanting to relocate to our shores again, with the jet being pushed further North at this stage. The positive temp anomaly I talked about last night, into days 13-15 is shown to be stronger - so a signal of weather settling down and 'warming' up as we approach April.

     

    The GFS ens indicating the 'cool' spell, has all but evaporated.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    The 0z ens from the 10th, and the 0z ens from today - both covering the same time period 18th - 23rd! Yep.

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS rainfall chart has extended the very dry theme to the 20th now for the vast majority if England and Wales with just a few mm of rain at worst

     

    Posted Image

     

    As each day passes currently the dry theme keeps getting extended by a day

    Above normal temps to at least the 20th as well

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 06z op run is changeable with a mixture of settled & unsettled weather, the most unsettled and breeziest / windiest conditions for north west uk and the best of the dry and sunny weather for the south east, temperatures varying between rather cold, average and mild and cold enough for occasional frosts and wintry ppn, especially for northern hills.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Ext ecm, shows a period of unsettled conditions from around 18-24th March, more prevalent in the North of the country. Thereafter pressure is forecast to rise from the SW, with the Azores wanting to relocate to our shores again, with the jet being pushed further North at this stage. The positive temp anomaly I talked about last night, into days 13-15 is shown to be stronger - so a signal of weather settling down and 'warming' up as we approach April.

     

    The GFS ens indicating the 'cool' spell, has all but evaporated.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    The 0z ens from the 10th, and the 0z ens from today - both covering the same time period 18th - 23rd! Yep.

     

    Interestingly the met office are also talking about settled conditions returning towards the end of the month

     

    up-to the 26th

     

    During the middle of next week conditions are expected to turn more generally unsettled, though rainfall totals in the south should be relatively low, before colder conditions briefly follow, perhaps bringing some wintry showers to the north and northeast and some colder nights. For the last part of this forecast period, the most likely scenario is for gradually more settled conditions to return.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The cold snap around mid next week has completely vanished from GFS now instead it brings high pressure back in as early as t168 this afternoon

     

    Stays relatively settled on Monday

     

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    The high backs away Tuesday

     

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    Before returning for a few days

     

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    It then starts to slip away once more

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 12z keeping 2m temperatures above normal to at least the 20th again this afternoon

     

    Posted Image

     

    Normal 2m temps left expected right

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Today's 12z  GEM is very different from the GFS and throws in a decent Northerly

    later in its run.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Safe to say GEM not in agreement with GFS, with the Canadian not keen on the idea of high pressure extending itself into nxt wk. Also, the 850s show a big contrast,with gem much cooler than gfs this afternoon.

    gem & gfs at t168

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    NAVGEM going a similar route to GFS at t180 by building pressure, though GFS has the high at 1030mb whereas NAVGEM is 1025mb

     

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    Slightly earlier

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    The GEM is doing rather well at the moment in the verification stats,but what is the PRHW14?

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    It would appear the gfs ensembles trending more unsettled into nxt week,

    Posted Image

    &t168

    only the south enjoying an ext period of high pressure; further north not so much.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS precipitation chart updated once again it keeps any rainfall for the bulk of England and Wales at day 8

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Today's 12z  GEM is very different from the GFS and throws in a decent Northerly

    later in its run.

     

    Posted Imagegemnh-0-216.png

     

    This is the key timeframe (21st/22nd March) for coldies now, if we are to see some wintry hope for lowland England this March. Sounds a bit dramatic I guess, but nothing in the reliable suggests that anything other than the rather dominant HP cell will remain at least nearby to Southern England right through to the lower-res output. The NW-SE Britain split pattern continues unabated. Rather cool under cloud and pretty darn pleasant by day in any sunshine, thanks to favourable winds unlike last March where the nagging Easterly/Northeasterly prevailed for a vast part of Spring. I wonder whether if this pattern sticks (largely talking from IMBY here) could we achieve an April like 2007 spell arriving earlier than in that year, anyway that's really for another thread so will leave it there.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    It would appear the gfs ensembles trending more unsettled into nxt week, Posted Image

    &t168

    only the south enjoying an ext period of high pressure; further north not so much.

    A north south split looking possible next week but I don't think it will be all unsettled in northern areas, just the odd front or two introducing colder air temporarily. Sometimes these Azores highs ridge a bit further north than expected.

    I think we can now 98% call an end to major snow opportunities in the south. Next week was the big chance with the northerly, but it's been flattened out like all the others this winter past. Without a decent build-up of cold to the east, that leaves us with potential northerlies as we head towards April - snow still possible but disruptive snow incredibly unlikely outside of Scotland/N England.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM not supporting GFS and NAVGEM this evening for mid next week........

     

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    Very unsettled towards the end of ECM's run

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

     I don't think it will be all unsettled in northern areas, just the odd front or two introducing colder air temporarily.

     

    ecm, gem and jma seemingly have other ideas... theyd bring more than the odd front.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    I am not liking these charts from the GEM for the 21st - that's only 10 days off and I interpret them as showing much cooler conditions as the low over Scandinavia draws chilly air in from the north...... Have I got this right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Interesting, but confusing times ahead, with Ecm and Gfs as usual differingPosted Image The gfs shows more settled weather the ecm has none of it with more colder unsettled conditions for just about all ,to the lead up to T+168. Models are really struggling with there output, at the moment, it seems that these two models keep swapping there outlooks for next week. well there you arePosted Image Ironic,that this month so far in some parts of the Country including this area, we have seen more frosts than the whole of December to February! More to come in the following days....You cant make it up!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm is sticking to it's guns, tonight's 12z op run follows the trend of recent output with a relatively colder and more unsettled look to next week with brief cold shots, especially further north and with overnight frosts during the quieter interludes. It doesn't look like we are heading back into a full blown unsettled pattern, there will be spells of higher pressure between the atlantic systems, mainly across southern britain but it doesn't look as nice as this week..and certainly nothing like as mild / warm either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Split between GFS and ECM this evening - is GFS having a wobble, it often does this, gets right the pattern beyond 240 hrs then swings away at the 144-168 hr timeframe only to revert back to what it was showing all along..

     

    If I was a betting man I would go with the ECM synoptics but probably a toned down northerly. Met office outlook certainly going with a northerly flow as we head towards spring equinox, how many times has it said wintry showers this season, barely any at all, so it must be confident of a colder shot.

     

    Longer term, the azores high is lurking to the SW ready to ridge NE, but I doubt it will make the same inroads it has done in the last few days, and as we move into April, I suspect renewed northerly attacks will be the order of the day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    ECM pretty set on to upset the warm party. This ties in with something Joe laminate floori said a few days ago regarding the strat warming and affecting Europe.

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    Posted Image

    Edited by StuieW
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    If we do pick up a Northerly flow next week onwards, we won't need to worry about the wishbone effect which would be for showers restricted to northern, eastern and western coastal regions. The rapidly increasing strength of the mid to late march sunshine means convection levels rocketing and enabling beefy wintry showers to develop and spread out inland, whereas through winter, areas inland would be generally clear and sunny.

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