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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

    Maybe / If / Verify... Call it what you like!......A countrywide snow event with widespread -10c uppers! An absolute laughing stock!...... YES WITH JOYPosted Image

     

    Posted Image

    IMHO 1/100 chance, but would...

    A: Keep my "seeing a snowflake every winter" alive for its 45th year just when I thought it would fail

    B: Make this winter even more mad!!

    c: Be cold  :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    IMHO 1/100 chance, but would...A: Keep my "seeing a snowflake every winter" alive for its 45th year just when I thought it would failB: Make this winter even more mad!!c: Be cold  :)

    You do realise winters over?
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Well things aren't looking too bad. Next week it rather depends on how far the colder air in the NE encroaches SW and brings colder and unsettled conditions, mainly in the midlands and north. God's country looks okay. Of course this is fairy land at the moment so I'm sticking with the seaweed.

    post-12275-0-64968600-1394519351_thumb.g

    post-12275-0-47736900-1394519367_thumb.g

    post-12275-0-22219800-1394519379_thumb.g

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Hmm ECM is again going for no cold snap whatsoever

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    Posted Image

     

    GFS and GEM do go for something colder though for a brief period

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: brynmawr gwent
  • Weather Preferences: extreme snow rain wind
  • Location: brynmawr gwent

    Hmm ECM is again going for no cold snap whatsoever

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    GFS and GEM do go for something colder though for a brief period

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    It will be between 19th and 25th march......

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just for once in the last 4 utterly miserable despairing months for coldies, I would love to see a chart like this from the Gfs 00z op run verify even though it's only shortlived, it's sharp. However, if the anticyclone does become centred further to the west / south west of the uk, it would open the door to reloads of cold air from polar regions.

    post-4783-0-23133300-1394527401_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    ECM now has no cold snap, I did say not too get to excited as it's FI. The breakdown of the high pressure is being delayed more and more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    It will be between 19th and 25th march......

    How do you know that?
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Ext ecm now saying no to any cold spell developing, with everything being pushed further east - as we saw all winter. What is of interest, is how cold the eastern us/canada is forecast into the mid term, with colder air once again leaking out into the Atlantic - and we know what that can mean for the UK.

    overall, disappointing for coldies. Seemingly, the ens led us up the garden path, again!

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    Ext ecm now saying no to any cold spell developing, with everything being pushed further east - as we saw all winter. What is of interest, is how cold the eastern us/canada is forecast into the mid term, with colder air once again leaking out into the Atlantic - and we know what that can mean for the UK.overall, disappointing for coldies. Seemingly, the ens led us up the garden path, again!

    Yes, I noticed that forecasts for the NE USA suddenly shifting from +4 to +10C maxes, back down to -10 to -12C with snow.
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Ext ecm now saying no to any cold spell developing, with everything being pushed further east - as we saw all winter. What is of interest, is how cold the eastern us/canada is forecast into the mid term, with colder air once again leaking out into the Atlantic - and we know what that can mean for the UK.overall, disappointing for coldies. Seemingly, the ens led us up the garden path, again!

     

    Plenty of time yet as the models get to grips with the change to cooler more unsettled weather for the last 1/4 of March, Nothing disappointing  this morning, as timing being another week/10 days away, expect many more variations over the coming days. M.E.T are still very confident in there outlooks, will be interesting watching it unfold as usual.. But im not expecting anything other than a typical March affair.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM this morning says what cold snap?

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    UKMO shows pressure just starting to slip south at t144

     

    Posted Image

     

    As people will have learned with last "winter" until any cold snap / spell comes into the t144 range and lower extreme caution should be take at all times regardless of what agreement we have shown

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    As people will have learned with last "winter" until any cold snap / spell comes into the t144 range and lower extreme caution should be take at all times regardless of what agreement we have shown

     

    The same applies with a warm snap Gav... Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm waiting for the Ecm 00z ensemble mean to see how that is trending rather than paying much attention to the op..hoping for a cold snap beyond the rather cloudy benign anticyclonic interval...yep I'm a hopecaster and proud of it!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    GEM flies the flag for cold fans this morning in the further reaches:

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014031100/gem-0-192.png?00

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014031100/gem-0-240.png?00

     

    The latter would set up a prolonged period of colder unsettled conditions.

     

    That said, neither ECM nor GFS are that interested in anything other than the briefest of colder incursions;

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031100/gfs-0-192.png?0

     

    GFS at T+192 - the cold incursion heads to the North Sea and points east though it would be chilly here

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031100/gfs-0-240.png?0

     

    The OP a long way from GEM at this time with the Atlantic powering up and flattening the pattern leaving the south of the UK in a nice ridge. Control is less settled but not dissimilar but I didn't have to go far to find a chart closer to GEM:

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-1-240.png?0

     

    ECM, as has been said, doesn't play at all with a colder spell but the T+240 chart teases as per usual:

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014031100/ECM1-240.GIF?11-12

     

    Not completely sure where that would take us to be honest.

     

    6Z rolling out but the key for me today is to see if ECM is setting a trend which the other models will pick up at 12Z or if it's an outlier and it will move back to GFS this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    Plenty of time yet as the models get to grips with the change to cooler more unsettled weather for the last 1/4 of March, Nothing disappointing  this morning, as timing being another week/10 days away, expect many more variations over the coming days. M.E.T are still very confident in there outlooks, will be interesting watching it unfold as usual.. But im not expecting anything other than a typical March affair.

     

    trouble is the more the "change" stays out in past t+168 (arguably further today) the more spanners can get thrown into the works in the short term. I always liken it to train journeys. The more changes you require the more chance there is for things to go wrong. I still can't believe we'll go the whole of March and April without at least a two day northerly, surely? that would be ridiculous. Wouldn't it?

     

    To be honest, for the soaked south and southwest the ECM and GFS this morning are pretty decent for "dryies" !

    Edited by New Forest Gump
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I'm waiting for the Ecm 00z ensemble mean to see how that is trending rather than paying much attention to the op..hoping for a cold snap beyond the rather cloudy benign anticyclonic interval...yep I'm a hopecaster and proud of it!

     

    Yes Frosty, At worst we could be looking at a few Northerly topplers maybe..

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The same applies with a warm snap Gav... Posted Image

     

    Indeed this settled spell however was picked up quite a way out in FI by the models

    I'm waiting for the Ecm 00z ensemble mean to see how that is trending rather than paying much attention to the op..hoping for a cold snap beyond the rather cloudy benign anticyclonic interval...yep I'm a hopecaster and proud of it!

     

    ECM 00z ensemble is out

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Op and ensemble from ECM seem to be moving away from anything overly cold this morning

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Indeed this settled spell however was picked up quite a way out in FI by the models

     

    Yes Gav, as was/has this cooler unsettled spell for over a week now.

     

    The settled spell is now upon us for the next few days.. overcast here 3.7c.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    A lot of hardcore coldies have already abandoned ship but I'm not ready to leap overboard just yet. I feel there is still a chance of at least one potent cold snap before the ship sinks beneath the waves and at that point I will happily go with the flow until october..I see potential for cold in the latest models. :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

    There IS going to be a breakdown.

    There WILL be some colder/cooler weather.

    It is NOT going to be dry and fine until October. Anyone who believes it will is delusional just as I would be if I believed there will be no warm sunny dry weather this summer.

    Edited by simshady
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Can we keep this topic to actually discussing the model output please - chat about what weather we want to see (or not) needs to be elsewhere, if it has a model slant then a good place is the model banter thread:

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

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