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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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wondered how the next week would turn out, so thought i would venture into the model thread to get a few views on the next 7 days or so. my bad Posted Image

why are there always people who cant accept other peoples views?????? i really cant be asked to see post after post of sniping and back stabbing. if X says its so and so for the next week, but Y says it isnt, then so be it. let the week unfold and we will all know who was right. but to make it a personal issue that what you think is correct, seems a little childish and a lot petty to me. 

so here's my tuppence worth, i reckon it will be a week of weather. and no matter what the models say, the weather will do as it pleases Posted Image

Edited by MAF
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I agree with summer sun (Gavin)..we have waited nearly 4 months for a fine spell so we should darn well enjoy it, nice to see high pressure gain the upper hand at long last and a good week of drying out from the floods, hopefully the flooded areas are starting to improve significantly now.Posted Image Posted Image

 

So do I actually, don't normally as he loves wind and rain, but this is 2nd best setup behind snow and cold

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Can all you guys who keep telling me "the breakdown" is being pushed back" please explain to me precisely when the breakdown was originally scheduled, when it is now scheduled and what exactly constitutes a breakdown of the warm anticyclonic conditions forecast for next week?

Without being facetious, I haven't seen any specific date ever given for a breakdown so I don't see how it can be said an event is being pushed back? On what data is all this based, is it reflected in the ensemble data?

 

ECM Op as posted above may show a slow breakdown with high pressure hanging on in the South but the fact is it cools down from the 15th with unsettled slowly spreading from the North from around the 17th and it is just one run let alone the fact that pointing to one Op 10 day chart as evidence of anything is slightly dubious. 

 

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Can we just agree next week looks lovely for now - at least until the ensembles and models point to anything other than pressure falling away from the North after mid month?

 

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the "breakdown" was at T+240 3 days ago on all models (and not at all on the GEM which was apparently the next best thing a few days ago). On the GFS it has moved a little closer (t + 200), on the ECM op tonight there is no "breakdown" for the south.

 

Now. It will obviously breakdown - that's a fact. But, the "week of dry weather" now looks like it has the potential to be 12 days for the south. It HAS been pushed back.

 

I agree with an earlier post though - i think it would be a bit of a surprise if we avoided a northerly altogether but we know what northerlies are like. Come to t+72 and they're over the low countries.

 

The main thing is we continue to slowly dry out and amen to that.

Edited by New Forest Gump
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GFS 18Z is on its own somewhat with showing the Atlantic hitting parts of Scotland by Thursday night into Friday but any meaningful rainfall does look more confined to the western side of the highlands for the most part so it should still be a mainly dry week for many. 

 

The only uncertainty is how much cloud will there be trapped under the high from the weather front over Scotland atm and whether any coastal cloud will come into play, does appear to be a stiff breeze from the North Sea also for Southern areas for the first part of the week at least so if it is cloudy, it certainly won't feel spring like but with SST's above average, it won't feel as cool as it probably would of normally be at this time of year. 

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A large number of GEFS 00z perturbations keep the anticyclonic spell more or less intact across southern uk with the high becoming centred to the southwest of the BI with any unsettled weather tending to brush across the northern third..i.e..scotland & n.ireland. The main thrust of any wintry weather currently looks like being across scandinavia.

 

The week ahead looks superb with high pressure taking complete control..lots of sunshine, light winds and temperatures well above the seasonal average by day but under clear skies overnight, soon turning chilly with widespread slight frosts and a risk of fog patches, probably turning unsettled and windier across the far north west in time for next weekend but for most of us, it look like a prolonged settled outlook with the best of it during the next 5-7 days.

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Looks like parts of Europe could be headed back into winter around mid-month as Canadian PV disintegrates and troughing drops into the Scandi locale. How much the UK is affected is open to conjecture but potentially a wintry shock in store shortly after mid month point.

still looking like the rump of any proper cold will be to our east although as you head ne, it does look like a swipe of colder uppers is likely. Currently seems to be a 10%/15% chance that the trough will back far enough west to encompass the UK. Of course, just as the pendulum has swung to the blocking hanging on over the past few days, it could swing back again somewhat although it should be noted that the initial cold trough at mid month seems certain to be to our east so to see the following attempt possibly suffering the same fate should not be a surprise.
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Yup looks pretty settled this week with the ECMWF perhaps nudging the the colder air a tad further west by the weekend with a slight westerly drift of the high. And as Frosty pointed out unsettled in the N by the weekend.

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Edited by knocker
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Away from possibly the far north of England and certainly Scotland GEM shows the high lasting to at least the 19th if anything it gets stronger next weekend hitting 1040mb

 

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UKMO shows it hitting 1035mb next Saturday

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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And regarding the US it would seem the tropical depression currently forecast for the NY area midweek is causing some probs. Rain. or snow and strongish winds.

 

 

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Edited by knocker
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Quite a simple one today really - a settled and at times warm week to come, then turning unsettled once more w/c 17th. ECM and GFS show this evolution. What a change to last year - tomorrow last year saw an ice day with snow showers and notable snowfalls along the south coast and especially in the Channel Islands!

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Quite a big difference in the positioning of the high at t144 between UKMO and ECM this morning

 

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UKMO looks to have it in a better position for those of us who want it to stay longer

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Quite a big difference in the positioning of the high at t144 between UKMO and ECM this morning

 

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UKMO looks to have it in a better position for those of us who want it to stay longer

That ECM run would draw in a cool NW flow. Not to dissimilar to how daimianslaw saw things panning out with the high slipping westwards at the weekend.
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Shows how ridiculous it is to take one chart in ten days time and make definitive statements. And then update it every six hours.

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Edited by knocker
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Looks like FI starts around the 15th/16th March with uppers ranging from around +10 to -10 next weekend.

Also a few Ens members wanting to bring uppers close to -10 as we head further into March.

 

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The 6Z control run a real eye opener in FI...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

 

A wintry blast later this month certainly can't be wholly ruled out at this stage.

 

Maybe a case of enjoy the pleasant warm settled weather while it lasts??

Edited by SE Blizzards
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A change to much colder wintry conditions courtesy of stratosphere warming continues to gain momentum and should soon be in range of the ECM model.H500 anomaly charts and ncep 8-15 day charts should soon pick up this change.

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A change to much colder wintry conditions courtesy of stratosphere warming continues to gain momentum and should soon be in range of the ECM model.H500 anomaly charts and ncep 8-15 day charts should soon pick up this change.

Does that always equate to colder conditions for the UK though? I am not very clued up on how the stratosphere affects us but havent past Stratospheric warmings not affected us in the past and instead brought a change in conditions to somewhere else instead?

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If the ECM shows something similiar at day 10 then maybe we should take note, but for now it's just one GFS FI run which has no significance. All I see is the warm settled conditions being extended further and further Posted Image

 

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Edited by Barry95
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