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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Cloudy High or sunny High?.surely the most important factors are it's going to be DRY...with LIGHT WINDS...this will be much appreciated by those who have suffered the most during the last few months.

Edited by Frosty.
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Yes Tim, this chart must be the coldest I have seen since last March and all of last Winter ! The GFS continues to hint something colder from the North for the last 3rd of the Month, with -7/8 uppers covering most of the UK it would feel bitter with heavy Snow showers pushing South over much of the UK.  Im sure there will many changes over the coming days..

 

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Before then,we have lot's of warm sunny and dry weather to enjoy next week. With High Pressure sitting slap bang over the UK.

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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ECM is pushing the breakdown back a few days this morning for those in the south

 

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Every chance the south could go 10 days maybe more without any rain

 

UKMO continues to show high pressure dominating next week for the first time in 14 weeks just today and tomorrow to go now before it arrives

 

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GEM is starting to show a breakdown around t216 this morning

 

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Why the   #*%$"[email protected]'**!! couldn't we have seen this 6 weeks ago?

 

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the end result would probably have been the same anyway at the time scale shown=unlikely!

 

The next 10-15 days look fairly predictable in the upper air pattern, see anomaly links below, no sign there of any marked cold

plunges?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

temporary outbreaks of air from Iceland/Greenland is the most any cold fan could hope for then back to what the anomaly charts show as the average upper air pattern.

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looks like extremes either very warm or very cold.  Very windy or dead calm and then very high highs then bad lows.  Just no average winter or spring just full extremes from one end to the other which seemingly continuing .  If tim right we could be going from mini heat wave into plunged cold system.   I hope not -12 then windchill factor god hope not and hope the big nasty -30 stays well away.  Someone don't like UK.

 

By way this storm still on track to miss us.   Got little wind here nothing special F4 level on beaufort scale.  I think tracked further north as we not getting winds forecast.  

 

Just seen this on another forum shows different possible weather patterns likely by models.  Seems alot in agreement the high going last till around 18th then mixed with possible some lows and rain though not too much rain.

 

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Edited by vladthemert
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The timing of the breakdown hasn't been nailed as yet but I think it is pretty much set in stone that the second half of March will introduce cooler more unsettled conditions.

It may even be chilly for a little while as the trough digs down from the North, 4 or 5c for Northern England 6 to 8c for the South look about right at this point if we get a northerly flow but that will be cold enough for wintry showers to low levels if the upper air is cold enough and the feed strong enough from the North that will depend how far West the high is displaced and how the trough develops.

Little sign of anything other than a toppler or two though if you are after seeing some snow falling so the North will be best placed to see any wintry showers that fall should we get a decent toppler.

It looks as though the pattern may then be set for the rest of March with the AH intermittently ridging in behind systems so hopefully not too wet and settled days between cooler showery days - typical spring fare really.

 

Enjoy the sunshine and early spring warmth all. 

Edited by Mucka
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The timing of the breakdown hasn't been nailed as yet but I think it is pretty much set in stone that the second half of March will introduce cooler more unsettled conditions.

 

 

You keep saying this, but this isn't the case in my viewThere is nothing set in stone beyond 144 hrs. The models keep pushing any breakdown back and we can't say with any certainty when unsettled conditions will return.

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Interestingly, the block begins to look a little stronger than 48 hours ago and it's possible it could hang on across the south of the uk with any cold plunge shoved to our east.

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Interestingly, the block begins to look a little stronger than 48 hours ago and it's possible it could hang on across the south of the uk with any cold plunge shoved to our east.

 

I think it'll take some doing to avoid an Arctic shot at some point this month Nick.

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I think it'll take some doing to avoid an Arctic shot at some point this month Nick.

 

We avoided it virtually all winter though, and there have been spring months with barely any arctic influence at all in the last few years.

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We avoided it virtually all winter though, and there have been spring months with barely any arctic influence at all in the last few years.

I was just about to post the same thing. What makes this month any different than the previous 3?
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You keep saying this, but this isn't the case in my viewThere is nothing set in stone beyond 144 hrs. The models keep pushing any breakdown back and we can't say with any certainty when unsettled conditions will return.

 

 

The models haven't pushed anything back - there was never a set date for a breakdown to be pushed back anyway. They are slowly firming up on a breakdown soon after mid month with cooler Northerly interludes. What data are you looking at that suggests otherwise?

 

 

Here are the latest 12z ensembles out after I made my comment - how do they show anything but breakdown after mid month?

Look how pressure falls from the 16th.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=235&y=42 (NW England)

 

 

Nothing is certain and certainly not the weather but firstly I said pretty much set in stone and secondly I didn't give dates for the breakdown in that comment (I never have) nor did I even comment on a breakdown per se - I said that it was pretty much set in stone the second half of March would be cooler than the first. 

The reason you think I keep saying this is because I do. That is what the models show, never mind I predicted this type of pattern a long way back before it was in the output with the Azores high being displaced West.

 

 

Not sure exactly what it is you  disagree with - Are you predicting it will be warm and settled after mid month? Or are just saying there is no conclusive or even strong evidence in the output for a cooler regime after mid month?

Edited by Mucka
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We avoided it virtually all winter though, and there have been spring months with barely any arctic influence at all in the last few years.

I think coldies deserve at least 1 wintry blast, it would be churlish of anyone to deny the majority on here a few days of snow showers and frosty nights before it's too late, and I think there are signs of a colder and unsettled further outlook. In the meantime, let's enjoy the fine and pleasantly warm spell.

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ECM looking pretty similar to this morning so far for later next week so the further south and south west you are the best chance you have of staying drier longest if nothing else

 

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ECM ends with high pressure back as the breakdown away from the far north and Scotland gets pushed back once more...............

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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ECM has some lovely charts, warm and dry with high pressure fully in charge next week.

 

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The 240h chart is looking much less unsettled than last nights aswell, so the breakdown continues to be pushed back :)

 

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Not sure exactly what it is you  disagree with - Are you predicting it will be warm and settled after mid month? Or are just saying there is no conclusive or even strong evidence in the output for a cooler regime after mid month?

 

I think what I said was pretty clear- I quoted the 'set in stone' bit as the part I disagreed with. It may well turn unsettled and cooler after mid month, and equally it may not. Set in stone suggests an element of certainty, and I can't see how it's certain at this stage.

Edited by Scorcher
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ECM has some lovely charts, warm and dry with high pressure fully in charge next week.

 

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The 240h chart is looking much less unsettled than last nights aswell, so the breakdown continues to be pushed back Posted Image

 

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Can all you guys who keep telling me "the breakdown" is being pushed back" please explain to me precisely when the breakdown was originally scheduled, when it is now scheduled and what exactly constitutes a breakdown of the warm anticyclonic conditions forecast for next week?

Without being facetious, I haven't seen any specific date ever given for a breakdown so I don't see how it can be said an event is being pushed back? On what data is all this based, is it reflected in the ensemble data?

 

ECM Op as posted above may show a slow breakdown with high pressure hanging on in the South but the fact is it cools down from the 15th with unsettled slowly spreading from the North from around the 17th and it is just one run let alone the fact that pointing to one Op 10 day chart as evidence of anything is slightly dubious. 

 

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Can we just agree next week looks lovely for now - at least until the ensembles and models point to anything other than pressure falling away from the North after mid month?

 

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I think what I said was pretty clear- I quoted the 'set in stone' bit as the part I disagreed with. It may well turn unsettled and cooler after mid month, and equally it may not. Set in stone suggests and element of certainty, and I can't see how it's certain at this stage.

 

Some selective editing there, I stated "pretty much set in stone" which is not quite the same is it?

But yes I am expressing an element of certainty or more accurately high degree of likelihood that second half of March will be cooler and more unsettled than the first. That is precisely what all the data suggests at the moment - I don't know why or even if you have a problem with that?

 

If you are just being pedantic about the degree of certainty I express then it is fair for me to point out it, is not "equally likely" that it won't turn cooler after mid month than stay warm and settled - not unless you ignore the model output and go off tea leaves or a coin toss or something but we are here to give opinions on what see in the model output and how we interpret them.

There is always room for discussion and disagreement there but just ignoring the data and disagreeing with someone on that basis isn't a part of that IMO.

If you have an alternative view on how things will develop on for the second half of March then great let's hear it - I'm all for the data being interpreted differently or even people going against the data as long as they express why. I am happy to do that myself from time to time and be proved wrong if that is how it turns out, no shame in being wrong in this game and yes I may be wrong that second half of March will be cooler than the first by whatever metric we decided as fair but if you are offering me odds of even money then I will take that wager all day long until and if the data changes. 

Blimey it's not like it is even an outlandish call, it is pretty much nailed on Posted Image 

 

Can we be friends now?

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