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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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The polar vortex is on the move to Siberia over the next week,so we should see quite a change

in the Northern Hemisphere pattern with those deep purples over the Canadian side being dragged 

East,although how exactly the "energy" is transported should make for fascinating viewing as we

are already seeing.

 

today..   day 8..

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021412/gemnh-0-156.png?12 Updated GEM ( close but no cigar ) & NAVGEM going the same way. S

GFS 12z 156 hours shows the other side of the coin with the formation of a true Greenland high which in turn if it occurs with allow the Russian cold time to move in and strengthen while it slows down the Canadian PV low pressure train.
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GFS 12z 156 hours shows the other side of the coin with the formation of a true Greenland high which in turn if it occurs with allow the Russian cold time to move in and strengthen while it slows down the Canadian PV low pressure train.

 

Its not a proper Greenland high through the 500 MB layers- just a modest 540 DAM height profile- but its better than nothing-

 

S

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014021412/navgemnh-0-120.png?14-17

 

Updated 12z NAVGEM @ 120.

 

Nice profile.

 

I don't say this EVER-  Euros look out on there own today....

 

S

I did mention to frosty earlier, that the GFS height building scenario/trend should not be written off.I will give the model one thing,when it latches on to something it runs with it.Snowing today in Northern England, further up than Yorkshire but at this time of year it does not take much to allow this. 

UKMO is a cool/cold run in the short term

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021412/UW42-7.GIF?14-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021412/UW120-7.GIF?14-17

 

GFS is trending towards the end of the purple machine

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021412/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

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ECM 120

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021412/ECH1-120.GIF?14-0

 

A nice wedge of higher pressure in a key location & the PV lobe ( in a valentines heart shape ) over Russia funnelling cold south & West-

 

The atlantic will make a push east at 144, but the heights will remain- lets see what the ECM comes up with post 144....

 

S

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I am a bit intrigued that the predicted movement of the upper strat vortex to siberia means the trop will follow suit with no canadian segment? 

 

i wouldnt be writing the obituary of the canadian trop vortex just yet

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Cr*p ECM. - Cr*p JMA.

 

zonal.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021412/ECH1-168.GIF?14-0

 

then very mild & wet.....

 

oh well.-after early optimism-- I think the flags gone up to 3 quarters tonight.... The GEM & a few GFS ens are the only thing stopping the full hoist.

 

 

CIAO>

Edited by Steve Murr
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Some further signs of pressure ridging north around the middle of next week after the next low on Monday enabling a longer break between the rain.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021412/ECM1-120.GIF?14-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021412/UW120-21.GIF?14-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021412/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

an improvement of sorts, particularly further south where it will be particularly welcome.Some may squeeze 48hrs + of mainly dry weather especially if the UKMO run verifies.

No sign of any real change from the overall westerly pattern yet but at least this break from the Atlantic barrage would be welcomed by many i am sure.

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Indeed, and it did the same thing yesterday. Perhaps the new low-rez GFS thing is to show big Northern blocking instead of raging zonality. Either way, it's a waste of time.

 

About the 06z GFS/GEFS from today.

 

It was a "red run", featuring abnormal shortage in critical modules of input data (GDAS) and a deficit in secondary data modules. All in all, pretty much half of all input data for the 6z run was on a 60-90% deficit, which is huge and the run was marked for investigation. 

 

The 12z run is much better, but it is still a "yellow run" with deficit in two satellite data modules (AMSU-B and HIRS-3). But besides this, it is a clean run.

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The D10 ECM chart reminds me of early December when we were looking at a long stretch of Atlantic dominance. A Canadian PV that is as strong as it has ever been:

 

post-14819-0-08366100-1392404665_thumb.g

 

Looking at the GEM, that has a similar synoptic:  post-14819-0-11784500-1392404732_thumb.p

 

The GFS mean also at D10: post-14819-0-14360700-1392404792_thumb.p At D16, even worse: post-14819-0-24114300-1392404811_thumb.p

 

The JMA mean for March: post-14819-0-28005100-1392404990_thumb.p

 

More of the same, heights over Continental Europe and the UK at the end of the Atlantic train.

 

There is no sign of a change to cold, variations on where the UK will be once the PV returns to Canada (after D10) that divide between a slacker zonal fest or the alternative, average March Atlantic flow (to include ridging between the next incoming low). The op and control from the 12z show these two alternatives pretty well.

 

 

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About the 06z GFS/GEFS from today.

 

It was a "red run", featuring abnormal shortage in critical modules of input data (GDAS) and a deficit in secondary data modules. All in all, pretty much half of all input data for the 6z run was on a 60-90% deficit, which is huge and the run was marked for investigation. 

 

The 12z run is much better, but it is still a "yellow run" with deficit in two satellite data modules (AMSU-B and HIRS-3). But besides this, it is a clean run.

 

That's fantastic and useful information: where do you get it from?

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Hi everyone. From an exceptionally windy and wet West Country tonight here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Friday February 14th 2014.
 
All models show an intense Low pressure area (958mbs) moving slowly Northeast then North over Eastern Scotland with a severe gale force Southerly wind over Southern England along with driving showers and more persistent rain maintained overnight. Winds are shown to veer Westerly by dawn with a slow improvement through tomorrow as the heavy showers also slowly clear from the west by evening. Sunday then shows a quiet day as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK before a band of showers and a more coherent band of rain march in late Sunday and Monday but with much less windy weather. Towards midweek it looks like being rather colder with scattered showers but pleasant enough in some sunshine and the much lighter winds.
 
GFS then shows the end of next week as being very changeable with further rain at times with some brighter and drier interludes as well. This general theme is then shown to last through the remainder of the run with no settled weather likely for any length of time though thankfully without the powerful storm systems than we have endured of late.
 
UKMO tonight shows a breezy end to next week as Low pressure to the NW steers trough East across the UK in blustery winds with rain at times followed by showers. Temperatures look generally close to normal at the end of next week but chillier in the North with some wintry showers.
 
GEM shows troughs of Low pressure moving East into the UK with rain slowly crossing East with snow on hills in the North. A more definitive trend towards more mobile, unsettled weather looks likely with rain and showers continuing to affect the UK at times out to the end of the run.
 
NAVGEM shows the end of next week as a chilly affair with NW winds, sunshine and showers with a ridge moving in from the West later damping down the showers later.
 
ECM shows a trend towards a strong and mild SW flow across the UK towards the end of it's run with further unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures above average later.
 
The ECM Mean Charts tonight hardly show anything inspiring tonight as it looks like the UK will be governed by a large and complex Low pressure area to the West and NW of the Uk with strong SW winds with gales and spells of rain and showers for all in average temperatures and maybe slightly above in the SE at times.
 
 
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles indicate a changeable spell of weather with rain at times and temperatures near to or somewhat above average for a time in an Atlantic dominated pattern.
 
 
The Jet Stream is shown to become much weaker next week as it develops a sine wave pattern across the Atlantic and the UK. After this lighter phase the flow then is shown to strengthen again through the second half of the run.
 
In Summary tonight the improvements shown in previous days remain tonight. However, it is important to note that while improvements will take place it remains very relative to current conditions and there would still be some heavy rain at times wwith some strong winds too, though without the very strongest winds recently seen. There will also be some longer drier spells between times to at least allow a slight improvement to flooded locations with time and temperatures should not prove to be an issue either.
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Quite a mild springlike trend from the Ecm today / tonight, the 00z and now the 12z show much milder air sweeping in towards the end of the month, this would stir the growing daffodils and bring out the snow drops..a fitting end to the most miserable winter in decades.

post-4783-0-40274400-1392412271_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-82628600-1392412285_thumb.pn

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re my post 41 with links to ECMWF-GFS and NOAA this morning, the latest NOAA 6-10, for the first time in several days, looks to be calling a halt to that idea, see blwo

 

So any temporary build of surface pressure to the NW of the UK looks like being just that, temporary. Why? Because the 8-14 day outlook has consistently, other than a tentative idea of this for a day or two is not the kind of upper air pattern that will keep such a feature.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

sorry cold lovers.

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I am a bit intrigued that the predicted movement of the upper strat vortex to siberia means the trop will follow suit with no canadian segment? 

 

i wouldnt be writing the obituary of the canadian trop vortex just yet

 

The time-frame for the trop vortex to be dragged across is very loose,although we live in hope!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-12-1-348.png?12

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