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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Agreed but when considering long wave patterns one can be a little more confident. I think it is likely we wills ee a breakdown after mid month though exactly how that develops is very much out of the reliable range.

the ext ecm shows the mean trough to be to our ne into days 10-15, with the ridge being shunted sw. This is supported by the Canadian ensembles; this has been the trend for the last few days, which is now being picked up in the midterm ens. The msl mean shows the UK influenced by low pressure into this period, with the Azores back in its usual home. Also, it will turn much cooler according to the ens, esp so for the UK.

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days 10-15 height anomaly -ecm

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the demise of the block by mid month is a theme that is rapidly gaining momentum over the past 48 hours. we normally see the models too progressive to break down any block but this one currently doesnt look to have too much sustainability about it.  all the extended ens output has been bringing troughing back during week 2 so anyone hoping for a sustained dry and mild period may well be disappointed.

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As others have stated and as I have stated these past few days - trending more unsettled and cooler by mid month as the high pressure is forced westwards and a trough forms to our NE ushering in a flow from between west and north.

 

BBC update today supportive of this scenario with talk of normal temps in the south and hill snow in the north.

 

Before that there is a window of 2-3 days early next week where the whole country will enjoy settled and bright conditions, so only a shortlived settled blip for many NW parts but something longer lasting in the south and east.

 

Typical topsy turvy conditions for early spring.

 

Many parts will have seen more frosts during the first half of March than during the whole of the winter just gone!

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I could survive with hill snow just not settling snow on lower grounds.Dont want a march 2013 again

  i wouldn't mind another march 2013. Glad to c the models r firming up on a setel spell. How ever they r also showing a break down and the mets 16-30day forecasting it too.
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The GEFS 00z mean looks superb next week for those of us who are ready for a taste of spring warmth and prolonged sunshine, what a pleasure it is to see high pressure in charge for the first time in 3½ months...yes it beggars belief but it's true, the first time high pressure has been sat on top of the uk for around 14 weeks..ENJOY IT FRIENDSPosted Image Posted Image

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Good morning all

 

Not sure if ive posted this in the right place however an interesting article on msn this morning that will have an impact on forecasting this year, Just another variable for all the model watchers to add to the upstream forecasts.

 

http://news.uk.msn.com/world/el-nino-to-shake-up-worlds-weather

 

LO

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 The Ecm 00z op run shows a glorious spell of anticyclonic weather next week with lots of sunshine, light winds and temperatures well above the seasonal average although nights will be chilly under clear skies, cold enough for slight frosts, also some patchy fog..just about the whole of the uk looks fine and warm next week, even the far north west settles down too, however, by the end of next week onwards it could be turning cooler and more unsettled from the north west.

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is Anticyclonic Bliss for all the long suffering fine weather starved folk on here, it's a cracker, it actually looks good enough for a BBQ with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 60's F from as early as sunday and then more generally through the course of next week..the first 70 F + is possible across parts of the south & east, london could reach 21c next week. It currently looks like this warm settled pattern will last about 1 week, especially the further south east you are but there are signs that the high could be pulling south westwards towards it's home in the azores with a progressively cooler and more unsettled spell spreading to all areas by mid month onwards.

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Woah 21C?

It looks very pleasant but I think those sort of highs are unlikely to be reached.

Even so 16C to18C would feel very nice in strong sunshine should temps get that high for a few favoured spots.

It will be interesting to see what sort of max we can hit and it certainly will be a relief to feel some warm sunshine - like coming out of hibernation or a long dark coma for me.

I mean if SAD is a real phenomenon then I reckon half the UK suffers from it by now.

 

GFS Ops have looked less unsettled after mid month than recently but the ensembles still strongly favour a breakdown of the warm settled conditions from around the 17th, especially for the North but not exclusively so.

 

NW England (GFS)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=229&y=39

 

London (ECM)

 

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So turning cool/chilly rather than cold with temps between 5 and 8C most likely with showery rain, perhaps wintry at times in the North more especially over hills.

Edited by Mucka
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I think 21c is possible, i mean it's going to reach 19c on sunday and next week looks even better so I don't think 21c is unrealistic for the most favoured spots next week..heathrow airport for example.Posted Image

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I think 21c is possible, i mean it's going to reach 19c on sunday and next week looks even better so I don't think 21c is unrealistic for the most favoured spots next week..heathrow airport for example.Posted Image

 

It will be great if it happens Frosty. I wouldn't use language like impossible or unrealistic, especially in isolated spots but it does seem a little optimistic to me.

I actually favour this weekend to record some of the higher temperatures as we pick up a decent S/SW flow though next week will more likely see stronger sunshine but with more of a continental flow.

I'm more than happy to be proved wrong just as I am with the breakdown after mid month, the warmer and drier the better as far as I'm concerned. Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Think Frosty is right, under local topography, 21c could well be achieved easily. This looks no different than March 2012 outputs, and we received nearly 24c from that, albeit the ground was much drier + soil and ground temps would've perhaps been a tad warmer.

 

Yeah there is that and the high was centred a fair bit further SW. Maybe later toward mid month we may see something like that as the high moves West, So this weekend and back end of next week into next weekend will give the best opportunities of breaking 21C IMO.

Being in the NW I will keep my fingers crossed for 16C or 17C Posted Image

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Sunday see's a change taking place with the low moving away as the day goes on and high pressure moving in behind it as a result temperatures for England and Wales will widely be in the teens where as in NW Scotland highs will struggle to get above 5c in places

 

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By Monday the high is in place across the UK but this time the high temperatures look likely for the south again though parts of NW Scotland struggle with temperatures around 5c for some

 

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From Tuesday temperatures slowly rise for all of us including Scotland given some lengthy sunshine in the usual southern hot spots we could easily see 20c breached somewhere (Heathrow and Gravesend would be a decent bet)

 

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Take note though nights will be cold for many of us so frosts could be fairly widespread after the warm weather during the day so if you plan on getting some plants from Garden centres this weekend you'll need to cover them over on a night with some horticultural fleece otherwise you may find they die pretty quickly

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yeah there is that and the high was centred a fair bit further SW. Maybe later toward mid month we may see something like that as the high moves West, So this weekend and back end of next week into next weekend will give the best opportunities of breaking 21C IMO.

Being in the NW I will keep my fingers crossed for 16C or 17C Posted Image

 

16 or 17 Mucka! Phew its like July Posted Image

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It will be great if it happens Frosty. I wouldn't use language like impossible or unrealistic, especially in isolated spots but it does seem a little optimistic to me.

I actually favour this weekend to record some of the higher temperatures as we pick up a decent S/SW flow though next week will more likely see stronger sunshine but with more of a continental flow.

I'm more than happy to be proved wrong just as I am with the breakdown after mid month, the warmer and drier the better as far as I'm concerned. Posted Image

I would go with this assessment, assuming it is sunny 15-18C the maxes next week, possibly 20C somewhere on Sunday. Not to be sniffed at. I do wonder if it will be a little more cloudy next week though hope not.
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After a 14 week wait for a dominant high pressure system to sit over the UK its now just 2 full days away tonight UKMO shows the high dominating next week

 

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t72 is yet to update on wetterzentral and t96 is unavailable at the time of posting

Edited by Summer Sun
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Well the breakdown according to the GFS and ens is around day 10, which is the same point it was a couple of days ago so maybe the high is proving to be a little more resilient than the models first thought, well except the GEM which is adamant that high pressure will be fully in charge even by day 10.

The high looks to set up in a very good position next week so it will come down to any fronts being trapped in situ as to where cloud might turn up as there shouldn't be too much low cloud drifting onto windward coasts. 

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