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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    Looks like it wants to send the high slightly eastwards, potentially northwards, too. Wouldn't it be typical if we got a solid Scandi high when there is almost no residual cold air left over Europe to export over here.

    Nooooo

     

    If anything ruins a spring in the East it's Easterly or North Easterly winds.

     

    Warm enough to give us horrible misty or cloudy days

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    don't  look deep fantasy world Atlantic  gearing up  late march  20th  onwards http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

    I did look but I'm more interested in getting the high building in first and seeing how long it could last.
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    My thoughts over the past few days have been for a settled mild period giving way to a flow from the north as heights are forced west accompanied  by scandi trough formation, and the models today are certainly hinting at such development as we move into the middle part of the month. The key is the ridging of heights north over the country and elongating in a west-east position enabling trough formation to the NE.

     

    In the reliable timeframe a very pleasant spell of weather away from the far NW but it will take until Monday for much of the northern half of the country to join in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    My thoughts over the past few days have been for a settled mild period giving way to a flow from the north as heights are forced west accompanied  by scandi trough formation, and the models today are certainly hinting at such development as we move into the middle part of the month. The key is the ridging of heights north over the country and elongating in a west-east position enabling trough formation to the NE.

     

    In the reliable timeframe a very pleasant spell of weather away from the far NW but it will take until Monday for much of the northern half of the country to join in.

     

    I think you may be correct in your thoughts. N Atlantic blocking/Scandi troughing seems the logical evolution towards mid month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    As much as I like cold and snow, I think it's strutching at straws to say it will turn 'cold' during the end of March when it's the 5th of March. The cold in FI never materialised all winter.

    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    As much as I lie cold and snow, I think it's strutching at straws to say it will turn 'cold' during the end of March when it's the 5th of March. The cold in FI never materialised all winters.

     

    A N/NE'ly flow in March/April is more than capable of producing snow showers if the source is cold enough. In fact, some of the cloud structures that such a flow can produce are very picturesque.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Hmm these retrogression signals very often get toned down by quite a margin, usually to simply transferring core surface heights from the UK/East of UK to somewhere close to Ireland and bring cooler cloudier weather into the east... saw this too many times last summer. Any big movements tend to appear at close range. At the moment I'm happy to enjoy a week or so of pleasant sunny weather with heights close to the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Looks like a solid week of settled weather, perhaps longer in the south, then after that we look to be seeing a changed to a more mixed and average setup with heights to the south west occasionally ridging towards the UK between more unsettled periods of weather.

    The high looks to be well positioned with a light south easterly flow for the south and south westerly for the north, looks like there could be plenty of sunny days to come as we never really pick up a flow which can bring plenty of cloud in off the sea.

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    Looks like a solid week of settled weather, perhaps longer in the south, then after that we look to be seeing a changed to a more mixed and average setup with heights to the south west occasionally ridging towards the UK between more unsettled periods of weather.

    The high looks to be well positioned with a light south easterly flow for the south and south westerly for the north, looks like there could be plenty of sunny days to come as we never really pick up a flow which can bring plenty of cloud in off the sea.

     

    Captain, 

     

    You recon after the warm weather we could pick up any snowy weather or we looking at a return to average conditions with wet and windy weather?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another superb run from GEM this morning as it continues to live up to its name in producing a gem of a run again with no sign what so ever of a mid month breakdown

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    UKMO remains settled

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    ECM and GFS remain settled till around mid month before a gradual breakdown of the high allowing more unsettled weather to gradually return from the north

     

    After a 14 week wait high pressure is going to dominate our weather rather than low pressure the long long wait is almost over

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Looks like a nice warmish and dry period in store

     

    Posted Image

     

    Indications of a drift towards average temps and rather more unsettled conditions as the month moves on.

     

    Broadly similar farther north apart from the precipation spike in the next days.

     

    Posted Image

     

    ECM concurs with the mean @ 144hrs

    Posted Image

    trending more zonal @ 249hrs

    Posted Image

    Nothing dire so pleasantly Spring like for most with a few cool / cold nights possible. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    All signals from the GFS pressure ensembles continue to point to pressure falling from the 15th across the UK

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Massive dip in the 850's on the GFS Ensembles from Mid Month , many reaching the -10 line again, Remember Northerly's and Easterly's are more common in March / April , so a chance of some late Snow may still be a possibility this year . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Ensembles suggest no real chance of a breakdown until the 15th-17th but as the GEM shows that is by no means guaranteed and could be pushed back. I'm very interested to see how high we can push the CET.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    Ensembles suggest no real chance of a breakdown until the 15th-17th but as the GEM shows that is by no means guaranteed and could be pushed back. I'm very interested to see how high we can push the CET.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    The GEM has really taken to this high pressure thing, hasn't it?! It was being praised a while ago for showing a trough-dominated pattern continuing but since it realized this was wrong it's really gone for it. 

     

    this is how it thought sunday was going to pan out:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    it's fair to say it's backed away from that now. So, i don't think i'll be buying it's high pressure domination idea now either. GFS and ECM both have a more unsettled outlook in the longer term and that's certainly the way the met office are headed so i think i'll be going with that.

     

    Massive dip in the 850's on the GFS Ensembles from Mid Month , many reaching the -10 line again, Remember Northerly's and Easterly's are more common in March / April , so a chance of some late Snow may still be a possibility this year . 

     

    Spring snow is a possibility every year. No reason why this would be any different - that would be fairly typical. To my mind the ridge next week has got to go somewhere and providing it doesn't just sink into Europe it will always open up the possibility of something more unsettled and colder or even properly cold. 

     

    Mind you, i'd be happy if it hung around until October now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    t96 unavailable at the time of posting but t120 and t144 from UKMO remain settled with high pressure dominating

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    GFS remains very settled till mid month before things gradually turn more unsettled and potentially cooler

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    After this things gradually turn unsettled and cooler

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Chilly and potentially wintry FI for 12z GFS, more especially for the North.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Scary how much this is reminding me of 2012. We saw the high slip away West and the jet drive round from the North and dig down. We all know what followed on from then... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    Posted (edited) · Hidden by WINTRY WALES, March 6, 2014 - No reason given
    Hidden by WINTRY WALES, March 6, 2014 - No reason given

    Scary how much this is reminding me of 2012. We saw the high slip away West and the jet drive round from the North and dig down. We all know what followed on from then...Ummmm it rained????

    Edited by WINTRY WALES
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