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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    GFS 6Z Operational keeps things very anticyclonic for the next ten days:

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030506/gfs-0-162.png?6

     

    About as anticyclonic as it gets - again a weak continental drift to the SE but more difficult to know if this HP will be clear or cloudy at this range.

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-162.png?6

     

    Control very similar though goes much more unsettled than the OP into FI with a strong and potentially quite wintry set up for higher elevations.

     

    Most of the Perturbations show some form of anticyclonic weather but into FI most trend unsettled and some look potentially quite wet and indeed wintry to higher ground.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    Yes, the "false spring" is just getting underway and the models show a period of a week to ten days of basically settled conditions with various permutations of how the HP will orient close to the British Isles so at T+144:

     

     

    What on earth do you mean by the term 'false spring' ?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    What on earth do you mean by the term 'false spring' ?

     

    By "false spring", I mean a period of settled, warm conditions in early-mid March (which we've often seen) which is then followed by a reversion to much colder and unsettled conditions in late March and early April which can bring wintry conditions with snow to higher ground and temperatures well below average.

     

    That in turn eases into April and proper spring-like conditions return. The term means conditions that make people think a) it's spring and b) there won't be any return of wintry conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    By "false spring", I mean a period of settled, warm conditions in early-mid March (which we've often seen) which is then followed by a reversion to much colder and unsettled conditions in late March and early April which can bring wintry conditions with snow to higher ground and temperatures well below average.

     

    That in turn eases into April and proper spring-like conditions return. The term means conditions that make people think a) it's spring and Posted Image there won't be any return of wintry conditions.

    The difference in temps expected in March and early April, which you've just described seems like a pretty 'normal' UK Spring to me i.e. a number of variables in the mix.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    By "false spring", I mean a period of settled, warm conditions in early-mid March (which we've often seen) which is then followed by a reversion to much colder and unsettled conditions in late March and early April which can bring wintry conditions with snow to higher ground and temperatures well below average.

     

    That in turn eases into April and proper spring-like conditions return. The term means conditions that make people think a) it's spring and Posted Image there won't be any return of wintry conditions.

    Thank you for the explanation behind your thinking/term, however I don't agree with it. It would be like calling a hot spell in May a false summer or cold spell in October a false winter!

     

    Mods ; sorry for off topic post if you deem it as such.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    It looks as though we are still on course to a pleasant start to Spring but the idea of a colder second half of March maybe beginning to show up in the ensembles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It looks as though we are still on course to a pleasant start to Spring but the idea of a colder second half of March maybe beginning to show up in the ensembles.

     

    Remember that the GFS especially tends to be too progressive in FI. If there is a trend i'd not throw much weight behind it until it gets backed by GEM and ECWMF at day 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another lovely run from UKMO this afternoon

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    please note t96 (Sunday) is unavailable on wetterzentral at the time of posting

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

    Remember that the GFS especially tends to be too progressive in FI. If there is a trend i'd not throw much weight behind it until it gets backed by GEM and ECWMF at day 10.

    I agree, its definitely one of the quirks in the models  and I'd say forecasting in general, to want to see off a high pressure, only for it to hang around longer than forecast..... 

    Edited by chris78
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Remember that the GFS especially tends to be too progressive in FI. If there is a trend i'd not throw much weight behind it until it gets backed by GEM and ECWMF at day 10.

     

    Perhaps but I am really relating to the models showing something I already expected to happen which was the Azores high get displaced West over time allowing Northerly outbreaks in the second half of March so it is more a case of GFS following my thoughts than the other way around. Posted Image

     

    We may well both be incorrect though. Posted Image

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    looking beyond the settled spell and the gefs are sniffing a potent scandi trough later in week 2. if it arrives, hope the reality is our block keeping it's infuence well to our east

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Let's not get sucked into thinking the second half of march will be cold and unsettled, just remember how the models have teased coldies for the last 3 months and we haven't had a cold spell or even a proper cold snap. The intensifying anticyclone next week could stick around for a fair while.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Lovely ECM so far just a slight wobble on Sunday in the north but its from Monday when the high gets into 1st gear sitting over the UK and dominating

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Looks pretty wintry for Northern Scotland late Friday into Saturday,with a short-lived blast

    of cold air moving across.

     

     

     

    Meanwhile,the ECM 12z looks to be going into retrogression mode.......

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    Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

    Let's not get sucked into thinking the second half of march will be cold and unsettled, just remember how the models have teased coldies for the last 3 months and we haven't had a cold spell or even a proper cold snap. The intensifying anticyclone next week could stick around for a fair while.

    I totally agree with you there frosty but knowing our luck here in blighty when we all give up on wintery weather it will all change to the perfect winter sypnotics to little to late
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Next weeks high will be the first one to dominate the UK for 14 weeks

     

    Posted Image

     

    Its fair to say a week (or whatever we end up with) of settled calm weather is well well over due

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Let's not get sucked into thinking the second half of march will be cold and unsettled, just remember how the models have teased coldies for the last 3 months and we haven't had a cold spell or even a proper cold snap. The intensifying anticyclone next week could stick around for a fair while.

     

    Suits me either way TBH. I'm easily pleased. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Let's not get sucked into thinking the second half of march will be cold and unsettled, just remember how the models have teased coldies for the last 3 months and we haven't had a cold spell or even a proper cold snap. The intensifying anticyclone next week could stick around for a fair while.

    Regardless of what has happened in the last three months it has no bearing on what will happen over the coming weeks and I for one am still hopeful of seeing some snow,perhaps even laying snow before March or April is out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Posted Image

    I suspect this will be a tricky one regarding fog/cloud/sun totals. It's nearly mid-March, so the sun is getting stronger, and the wind-flow for us will be continental, but not a lot of wind so risks of fog/frost/cloud. Could be a scenario where the sun breaks through in the afternoon. Where it does, temperatures could climb quickly. If it doesn't (the South Coast may be prone), there may be dreary days. At least it will be dry - at last. 

     

    This is a classic "warm" spring chart for England/Wales:

    Posted Image

    Last Thursday, I suggested 20C could be reached this weekend, still very possible imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks a peach for next week, after months on end of low pressure, over 30 lows..finally we have a lovely spell of calm sunny and very pleasant weather on the way for the whole of the uk, the ecm looks just as good as 24 hours ago.Posted Image

    don't  look deep fantasy world Atlantic  gearing up  late march  20th  onwards

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another cracking ensemble run to t216 bar Sunday for some northern and north western parts

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Posted Image

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Still have a potential breakdown occurring slowly from the north around mid month, but before we worry about that we have a week of settled weather coming up

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    CFS anyone? This will soon whiten your upcoming tan.

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another great run from GEM with high pressure dominating from Monday to the end of its run

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I think a cold end to March is looking likely. End of ECM screams retrogression. GFS ensembles are trending colder every run and the CFS continues to point a cold picture. It is also common for a cold spring to follow a mild winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    Another great run from GEM with high pressure dominating from Monday to the end of its run

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Looks like it wants to send the high slightly eastwards, potentially northwards, too. Wouldn't it be typical if we got a solid Scandi high when there is almost no residual cold air left over Europe to export over here.
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