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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    The pattern change is coming it seems, yes the further South and East you're located, the more likely you will see most of the benefit from any HP influence. At least, in general it is a broad trend towards a drier pattern. In fact, I'm impressed at how long ago the developing trend was picked up by the likes of the GFS for example. A wobble here and there but that is usually the case when we are susceptible to over analyse each and every run, however, the broader signal has remained, as shown below.

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2937378

     

    The two comments highlighted below show how the forecast hasn't altered much over the past ten days, much as how JH analyses don't either when a broader pattern is shown.

     

    As we enter March, the Jetstream and perhaps more importantly its interaction with the Polar Vortex is seemingly on the move from Canada again and with this in mind, the 10 day range image below needs to be taken as very uncertain. In fact, by Tuesday 4th March, we are well into FI and the weather from there on in could go anywhere.

     

     

    When I posted the above prediction on the 22nd February, I also added the following comment regarding my gut feeling for March.

     

     

    I personally favour some form of Pressure rise from an Euro type High, slowly drifting towards the NW of Europe allowing for potential developments down towards the SW as we enter the second and third week of March. If enough cold air was available to our NE by then, things could get interesting from a colder snowier perspective but for now, that is way off and is literally a long-shot.

     

     

    Anything is possible I guess, but it does seem that this drier trend is growing stronger, bar some wetter interludes during this week and into the weekend, it certainly looks like a NW/SE split is on its way with differing weather types affecting those regions, potentially warm towards the SE in any sun and cooler and showery towards the NW of the British Isles.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GEM abandons all opposition..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    I'm sure a pattern change is evolving & hopefully to a drier scenarion particulary in the South but I still think there are signs that things won't be that dry and settled rather more 'typical' of March with a mixed bag likely.

     

    It's certainly been an extreme period for rainfall this winter so any evolution to 'normal' will be an improvement.

     

    Anyway I think Gotto should add to his signature.

     

    "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon

    The 8-14 day 500hPa anomaly charts from NOAA are showing the largest positive anomalies (generally suggesting above-average pressure) still centred to the south and south-west of the British Isles.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

     

    Thus they do not really agree with the GFS and GEM which have the high moving a long way north up the North Sea with central pressure of 1040mb- they are more in line with UKMO/ECMWF which have the high pressure centred over the south with central pressure nearer 1030mb.  I see that the ECMWF ensemble mean shows a middle ground scenario with high pressure becoming centred over East Anglia and ridging north to cover a large majority of the British Isles, but again with central pressure nearer 1030mb.  My feeling is that the models suggesting high pressure centred over the SE are the most likely to be right.

     

    The period 6th-9th March may be rather cloudy at times in most parts of the country with fronts moving around the north-western flank of the developing anticyclone, although the afternoon of the 9th may become warm and sunny from the Midlands south, and possibly NE England too, with temperatures into the low teens.  The sun is still not strong enough at this time of year to readily burn off stratocumulus sheets, but I think the high that is forecast to develop over the British Isles on the 10th looks like starting off as a mainly "sunny" anticyclone, as it coincides with the arrival of an outbreak of polar maritime air, of the sort that delivers relatively low humidity.  After that, it all depends on how much cloud we pick up from the North Atlantic and the North Sea, so my guess for the period 11-14 March is that most of England, Wales and eastern Scotland will be both dry and generally sunny, but the north and west of Scotland and Ireland and Cumbria will probably end up mainly cloudy.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Sunday's potential blip is looking less likely now for England and Wales

     

    Posted Image

     

    As for Monday.................Bank!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Cracking run from UKMO this afternoon

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GEM still not 100% longterm stability now thinks lows desend in from 13th.  Think we in yoyo state few days warm could be long term or short stay.

     

    Posted Image

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=192&carte=1

     

    But thats perturbation 15 from the 00z run

     

    This afternoons GEM I'm pleased to say remains extremely settled from Monday

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Living up-to its name in producing a GEM of a run

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Day 6 charts

    GFS

    Posted Image

    UKMO

    Posted Image

    GEM

    Posted Image

     

    GFS ens

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    Looking good.

    GFS does have one niggle for eastern areas as you wouldn't want an easterly setting up in an ideal world as this could bring cloudy skies quite far inland. GEM is fantastic and would bring plenty of sunshine with pleasant days and enough chill at night to remind you that it is only early March Posted Image

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    Why it gotta be chilly at night. why not mild. At least it should be nice in the day with the sun out 

     

    great charts Posted Image

    Edited by JK1
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another cracking run from ECM this evening it takes 2 goes to get in but once it does on Monday it lasts a while

     

    The first attempt is cut short on Sunday away from the south thanks to a low pressure system crossing north of Scotland

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    From Monday it gets a better grip on the UK

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    The 3 charts above are Monday, Wednesday & Friday (L to R)

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: orpington kent
  • Weather Preferences: winter is frost and snow/summer is heatwaves
  • Location: orpington kent

    Because it's March, not July. You can have mild at night if you want a thick layer of cloud - no thanks. Mild and sunny by day and cold and starry by night sounds perfect to me.

    i think has the week goes on more and more of the models will fall in line with a chilly easterly  breeze for next week .So yes dryer milder for rest of this week and in to the weekend .Could this high pressure end up over scandinavia and pull in much colder weather to the uk .Im new still learning thank you..

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    ECM 12z mean supporting a brief push of mild air at the weekend and a more pronounced pressure rise for next week.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another superb run from the ECM ensemble showing high pressure becoming the dominant feature of our weather later this week and next week we do have a minor blip on Sunday but the further south you are you'll avoid this

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Sunday's minor blip for some

     

    Posted Image

     

    Then the high really gets into gear

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    t240 shows the first hints of it potentially starting to slip south allowing more unsettled weather to gradually take over from the north, but lets not worry about that yet and enjoy this continued break from wind, rain flooding and all the other misery the winter storms delivered for many

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The Polar Vortex remains a very strong feature to our NW and whilst it looks like relaxing its grip for a time by the end of the week and into next week allowing high pressure to build from the south - longer term, I would expect it to push the high back south again, ushering in further unsettled conditions but this will be the start of significant pattern change over the northern hemisphere as the PV lifts out of NE Canada and allows height rises to our north west. All very normal service for early Spring exposing us to a flow from the north.

     

    This doesn't look or feel like a March 2012, which like March 2013 was an anomaly.

     

    Just my take on things.

     

    In the short -medium term the charts make for very promising viewing for those wanting some decent spring like and importantly dry weather, which for many is much needed.

     

    Could be a very topsy turvy spring this one though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    The Polar Vortex remains a very strong feature to our NW and whilst it looks like relaxing its grip for a time by the end of the week and into next week allowing high pressure to build from the south - longer term, I would expect it to push the high back south again, ushering in further unsettled conditions but this will be the start of significant pattern change over the northern hemisphere as the PV lifts out of NE Canada and allows height rises to our north west. All very normal service for early Spring exposing us to a flow from the north.

     

    This doesn't look or feel like a March 2012, which like March 2013 was an anomaly.

     

    Just my take on things.

     

    In the short -medium term the charts make for very promising viewing for those wanting some decent spring like and importantly dry weather, which for many is much needed.

     

    Could be a very topsy turvy spring this one though!

     

    Yes Damian, GFS is showing a cooler much more Wintry N/N/W flow this morning out in FI, after a good spell of settled weather. Will be interesting if this pattern evolves over the coming days..

     

    Posted Image

     

    High Pressure is now sat just to the West of the UK next week, some lovely settled weather on the way..

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looking good for a period of drier weather courtesy of higher pressure over the UK. It does at the moment appear that it will be replaced after D10 by a return to normal but that is to be confirmed and there is uncertainty on that count.

     

    D11 GEFS mean:  post-14819-0-10902000-1394003033_thumb.p ECM last night rainfall: post-14819-0-00833000-1394004157_thumb.g

     

    Last Friday's JMA week 3-4 mean also suggested this:  post-14819-0-16359100-1394003077_thumb.p

     

    There is cold uppers around but the MLB sends the trough into Continental Europe and this is where the v.cold air drops, D10 uppers:

     

    ECMpost-14819-0-07446300-1394003277_thumb.g  GEM: post-14819-0-00784800-1394003291_thumb.p  GFSpost-14819-0-06353800-1394003305_thumb.p

     

    So some March cold for over there. The three main models have subtle differences as to how the High (s) sets up, determined by the locale of the two blocks of lower heights supporting the ridging:

     

    post-14819-0-19574700-1394003646_thumb.g  That may affect temps region by region.

     

    All models suggest they will not sustain the eventual resurgence of the PV energy, so a return to more of a changeable flow after D10 looks the call. But in the interim the south should be getting some mild daytime temperatures, the mean 2m at T180:

     

    post-14819-0-41219200-1394003939_thumb.p Some members have 14c plus.

     

    So I for one will enjoy the upcoming warmth and sun.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Morning all :)

     

    Yes, the "false spring" is just getting underway and the models show a period of a week to ten days of basically settled conditions with various permutations of how the HP will orient close to the British Isles so at T+144:

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030500/gem-0-144.png?00

     

    GEM has the HP over the Low Countries and SE so a slight continental drift but perhaps fog more of an issue night and morning.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030500/ECM1-144.GIF

     

    ECM very similar.

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030500/gfs-0-144.png?0

     

    GFS has the HP over southern Scotland so a more pronounced E'ly flow for southern England.

     

    ECM suggests a breakdown of sorts at T+240 but that may be overdoing it a tad. GFS shows in extreme FI what might happen but it's a traditional tale as HP retreats SW and pressure falls to the North and North-East.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    We are bang on track for the most settled spell of weather since last sept / oct with high pressure becoming dominant through the course of next week. This snapshot from the GEFS 00z mean shows the anticyclonic spell at it's strongest on a nationwide basis, even the north of the uk is enjoying the pleasant early spring pattern at that point. So it's looking very good for lots of increasingly strong and pleasantly warm march sunshine and light winds, dream charts for the areas which have suffered the most from flooding and storm damage during the last 3 months. There is a chance that the large anticyclone could extend far enough north to enable a cooler continental outflow to spill into the south / south east of the uk eventually and this would bring a higher risk of frosty nights but daytime temps would still be pleasantly mild.Posted Image

    post-4783-0-22265000-1394009774_thumb.pn

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another superb run from ECM to t216 with high pressure dominating apart from a minor wobble for some in the north on Sunday

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    It does look like the high could break down some where around mid month when though is still open to question the Op (left) does appear to bring the break down in too quickly compared to the ensemble (right)

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    UKMO still loo very good for next week

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    As does GEM which is living up-to its name once more

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS pressure ensembles continuing to signal something less settled developing as we move into the 2nd half of March

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    The Aberdeen ensemble becomes the most unsettled of the 4 with pressure falling below 1000mb

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    It would now seem odds on that we are headed for a week or so of HP dominating. The models have certainly been keeping us all guessing the last few days... now it's a mere case of where the High will reside... as has been stated, by me and others, how long this period of Higher pressure lasts is open to debate - but taking the ens at face value, it would seem a week would be the likely duration. I will be looking frwd to getting out in the garden nxt week. Still damp underfoot, so this drier period will be welcome.

     

    The GEFS temp anomaly for 9-14 shows the UK, and the continent under a positive anomaly, with Scandinavia well above normal for time of year.

    Posted Image

     

    As I say, longer term... CFS ens join the ec32 in wanting to bring lower pressure back to our shores. All 4 models from cfs ens now indicating low pressure in control from period 17-22 March

    Posted Image

     

    So, In agreement with 'im dreaming of....'s post above. A week or so of spring like conditions, before we see a return to something more akin to 'normal'.... would be the likely avenue at this juncture.

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks a peach for next week, after months on end of low pressure, over 30 lows..finally we have a lovely spell of calm sunny and very pleasant weather on the way for the whole of the uk, the ecm looks just as good as 24 hours ago.Posted Image

    post-4783-0-49722700-1394019063_thumb.gi

    post-4783-0-13837900-1394019081_thumb.gi

    post-4783-0-09573700-1394019093_thumb.gi

    Edited by Frosty.
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